Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[Jersey_Snowhole]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think 3-6 is a good bet for NYC and LI

Temps better drop fast for that to verify 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Temps better drop fast for that to verify 

Temp has dropped 1.6 in last hr. or so. Now 30.0. Cold air is seeping in.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The radar is showing where this precip is to,nyc looking better with each short range model output. It actually aligns well with the current radar. Im sticking to my 3-5 inches of fluff,some spots of 6. Any bump north would put most of the city in that 6 inch range as well.

[dmillz25]

9 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Temps better drop fast for that to verify 

Its only been above freezing for like 5 hours and dews are in the mid 20s i think we’ll be fine 

[EasternLI]

18Z RRFS

[binbisso]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Its only been above freezing for like 5 hours and dews are in the mid 20s i think we’ll be fine 

Yes ground is frozen here in lower westchester will drop to 32 once sun goes down

[binbisso]

Just now, EasternLI said:

18Z RRFS

3k nam

[psv88]

41 with a wet bulb of 36. A bit warm to start but ground is cold from last night 

[MJO812]

Just now, EasternLI said:

18Z RRFS

3k Nam is similiar 

This might become a warning event for nyc.

[sussexcountyobs]

29.9/22.6

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

3k Nam is similiar 

This might become a warning event for nyc.

I think Philly has wsw

[binbisso]

Higher heights digging sw

[oceanctyguy]

Philly  and parts of SW NJ now under wsw.

[NittanyWx]

First big win of the winter for the AI models.  Plowable coast.  AIFS in particular did well in digging the SW and turning the trough more neutral vs positive a couple days back.

 

[weathermedic]

Nice write up from the afternoon OKX AFD:

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Points:

* Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded across most of the
  local Tri-State region from 10pm tonight through 1pm Sunday.

* 2 to 3" of snow expected across much of the interior, 3 to 5"
  for NYC/NJ metro and coast, and 4 to 6" for E LI, tonight into
  Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts possible.

A strong polar low (-2 std 500mb height) digs southeast from
Ontario into the Great Lakes into tonight. Trend over the last
24-48 hours has been for this feature to take on a slightly
more neutral tilt (from positive) as it pivots towards the area
tonight into Sunday morning. This will provide a bit more
theta-e advection into the area, and also shift the the ULJ
slightly farther NW of the region. At the surface, a weak cold
front moves through the region this evening, with combination
of approaching shortwave PVA and RRQ of 150kt ULJ inducing weak
low pressure development along the front across Mid Atlantic
this evening, tracking southeast of the 40/70 lat/lon tonight
into Sunday AM.

Although surface features are weak, the deep layered lift overnight
into Sunday AM (including RRQ of ULJ, and modest mid-level
frontogenesis/lift in the snow growth region along the coast), and
slightly more depth of moisture for low pressure to work with has
resulted in a gradual increase in QPF and snowfall totals over
the last 48 hrs.

Good agreement in liquid equivalent of .3 to .5 for coast and .1 to
.2 for interior. Main snowfall amount forecast challenge is from
northward extent and duration of moderate snow banding, and snow
ratios during peak dendritic snow growth late tonight. SLRs
should exceed typical 10:1 late tonight into Sunday morning
during best snow growth period and dropping 850 hpa temps, with
12-14:1 seeming reasonable late tonight into Sun AM. This has
resulted in a general 1" increase in snow amounts across the
area. 3-5" likely across much of the coast including NYC/NJ
metro, with locally 6" possible. 4-6" across E LI, with locally
7" possible. 2 to 4" across interior. WPC Superensemble and
experimental NBM 5.0 have pretty good clustering in these
ranges, with reasonable worst case (10% prob of exceeding) a
couple of inches higher.

In terms of timing, snow could develop as early as 6-7pm this
evening, perhaps mixing with rain for city/coast at onset with
air temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Steadier snow likely
develops after 9pm from w to e, with a steady light to moderate
snow from midnight through Sunday morning. Snowfall rates of up
to 1/2"/hr likely develop after midnight through mid to late
morning for much of the area, with potential for brief 1"/hr
rates along the coast from 4am to 11am during best snow growth.
This signal is evident in the high-res CAMs, with highest prob
across southern and E LI. This will be time period of greatest
travel impacts in terms of reduced vsby and snow covered roads
with freezing/sub freezing air temps, higher snow rates, and
reduced vsby. Initially above freezing air/surface temps for
city/coast this evening, dropping below freezing late tonight
into Sunday AM, may resulted in icy spots on untreated surfaces.

Steady snow exits from w to e mid to late morning, except early
afternoon for far SE areas.

[dseagull]

BALMY 48 back bay barnegat, NJ.  Sweating in my hoodie working on my boat.   Doesn't feel like snow.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

34 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

3-5 inches seems like a good call for Central Perk

Only it falls by 7am. Anything after that they won't measure until 1pm and it will have compressed by then. It's a very old story that hasn't changed much through the years. 

[Krs4Lfe]

Snow was definitely beefier than expected in the Midwest. Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh went under winter storm warnings but yesterday they were only under winter weather advisories. Maybe it’s a good sign to see more snow than expected to our west. Hopefully that  transfers to our area 

[weathermedic]

42 DP 31. Wet bulb 38 with a westerly wind at my station. Not very friendly for snow at the start

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Only it falls by 7am. Anything after that they won't measure until 1pm and it will have compressed by then. It's a very old story that hasn't changed much through the years. 

Central park measuring is a joke. That storm in February had most places in NYC at 4-5” and they were at 3”. Last year, the 1/19 storm; most of the city had 3-5” and they had like 1.8”. Saving grace is this storm comes in at night so maybe that’ll reduce melting as the snow falls. I’d still expect some white rain at the onset because temps are still warm right now.  

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, dseagull said:

BALMY 48 back bay barnegat, NJ.  Sweating in my hoodie working on my boat.   Doesn't feel like snow.  

You guys start as rain and transition to snow through the evening. 
 

30/20 here.. expecting 2-3”

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, dseagull said:

BALMY 48 back bay barnegat, NJ.  Sweating in my hoodie working on my boat.   Doesn't feel like snow.  

I would never use a temperature reading from the display in a vehicle. 

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

41 with a wet bulb of 36. A bit warm to start but ground is cold from last night 

We’ll cool down quick when the winds switch to offshore I think. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Cloudy 29.5/22.8

[Stormlover74]

Rgem beefed up again

[mannynyc]

23 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Snow was definitely beefier than expected in the Midwest. Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Pittsburgh went under winter storm warnings but yesterday they were only under winter weather advisories. Maybe it’s a good sign to see more snow than expected to our west. Hopefully that  transfers to our area 

Can confirm in Iowa. Much more precip than expected. It was very high ratio snow, was expecting 2 inches and got more like 6. 

[wthrmn654]

I do believe i detect a wind direction starting to change! Good

[wthrmn654]

Yep looking at airport metar there from south to more west direction now

[weathermedic]

4pm NWS Obs all showing westerly winds in the city and at Newark. CP down to 39 with a DP of 25

[Bxstormwatcher360]

37/27f here. Not too bad of a starting point. Also temps should start dropping slowly since sunset is approaching