Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just to clarify, I'm not "out" as in leaving here. I'm just tired of the hassle of being asked to make a forecast and then ridiculed for it because it isn't what they want to hear. 

I wanted to provide some context of why my forecast was so important to me. I'm sorry that I pushed it on all of you but I needed an outlet. 

Sorry to hear about this! It is a tough no win situation many times. Most people have no idea how many pieces must come together for a Winter storm to materialize in a localized area. When you add in significant business decisions that can impact the bottom line, it can get really complicated & polarizing.

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

MDT recorded 3.2” snow. 

I’ll take it after the potential of getting shut out was on the table with no snow sticking up until sundown last evening.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll take it after the potential of getting shut out was on the table with no snow sticking up until sundown last evening.

Same. I fell asleep around 11 and my wife says the snow around 11:45 had the biggest flakes she’s ever seen 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I want to start by tanking you , The past two nights wouldn't have been so wonderful without you. You were the reason why I was able to feel such glee and stay warm in these coold ,soaking, wet snows .You are my inspiration,  protector, and motivator .  Sometimes it almost feel as if we are one.  I so often  find myself plagued  with sorrowing thought of when we'll be able to feel as one again. I remember when I first saw you in the corner, I knew that I had to make you mine, and I believe you felt the same way.  The passion we feel when we're together leaves no doubt that I will never let you go and I will always be there when I need you. No one will ever tear your rugged cadora and sympatex embrace from my arms. You are absolutely the best blaze orange snow suit a man could have, and i've never loved anything, or anyone the way I love you. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Isn't it unusual that @Caveman didn't report in today with obs? I believe his area should have got some snow.Hopefully everything's okay. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z NAM & 0z GFS both bring snow to southern PA for the Thursday chance.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

23 when I left the house. Perhaps a coating tonight and something a little more Thursday. Thursday would be tricky as a daytime event with marginal temps and a narrow swath of snow, but we might just be sitting in as good a spot as anyone. Much to shake out. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

23 when I left the house. Perhaps a coating tonight and something a little more Thursday. Thursday would be tricky as a daytime event with marginal temps and a narrow swath of snow, but we might just be sitting in as good a spot as anyone. Much to shake out. 

Edit: I was going strictly off of Blizz’s post about 0z when I said that, but after checking some other guidance and the 6z gfs/nam it appears things are now projected well south of us. Who knows ha. 

[philliesmd]

12 hours ago, canderson said:

Providence is STILL getting hammered. If they don’t have 40”, I’ll be shocked. But it has to be impossible for them to measure. 
 

I am SO thankful that 2016 32” monster was fluff. I can’t fathom that with this heavy slop snow. 

They got pretty close.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
0131 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

...RECORD SNOWSTORM FOR PROVIDENCE RI...

THE BLIZZARD OF 2026 BROKE SEVERAL SNOWFALL RECORDS AT RHODE
ISLAND T.F. GREEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN PROVIDENCE:

- STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 37.9 INCHES BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE
GREATEST SINGLE SNOWSTORM ON RECORD, WHICH WAS 28.6 INCHES SET
DURING THE BLIZZARD OF `78, ON FEBRUARY 6-7, 1978.

- DAILY SNOWFALL OF 35.5 INCHES BROKE THE RECORD ONE-DAY SNOWFALL,
WHICH WAS 19.0 INCHES SET DURING THE BLIZZARD OF `96, ON JANUARY 8,
1996.

- FINALLY, THE DAILY SNOWFALL OF 35.5 INCHES BROKE THE RECORD
SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 23, WHICH WAS JUST 3.8 INCHES IN 1967.

[pawatch]

30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

23 when I left the house. Perhaps a coating tonight and something a little more Thursday. Thursday would be tricky as a daytime event with marginal temps and a narrow swath of snow, but we might just be sitting in as good a spot as anyone. Much to shake out. 

18 degrees this morning. Liked it better in the 30’s

Looks like I might get 1-2” of snow tonight…Haven’t checked yet this morning.

And you’re going to get some snow Thursday and looks like that’s staying south of me.

The ground is still covered with snow this morning.

 

That is crazy snowfall up in Rhode Island. It would be hard to imagine dealing with that much snow.

[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

As @Mount Joy Snowman mentioned, most overnight models shifted south overnight for the Thursday potential light event chance, but close enough to keep an eye on.

The 6z AI Euro & AI GFS are much closer  for Thursday.

[Blizzard of 93]

Early next week still looks interesting on most models for a snow to mix scenario with a wave approaching from the center of the country.

[Itstrainingtime]

I will "take" any snow we get, at the same time, I've now transitioned to bigger game hunting. Getting 2" of snow that is gone in 23 minutes doesn't excite me in late February and March. I'm investing in opportunities for storms that could deliver at least 6" or more. I think really it comes down to wanting to see snow on the ground for at least a day. You know, as far as sun angle goes, yesterday was exhibit A on how strong the sun is at this time of year...cloudy day, (shoot, snow was falling for a good part of it) temps in the mid 30s and yet my pack was decimated. Take the same conditions we had yesterday and move the calendar back to early January and our landscapes would have looked a lot different this morning. 

[Itstrainingtime]

10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Sorry to hear about this! It is a tough no win situation many times. Most people have no idea how many pieces must come together for a Winter storm to materialize in a localized area. When you add in significant business decisions that can impact the bottom line, it can get really complicated & polarizing.

This is very true. It's one thing to share thoughts with family and friends but when people's livelihoods are at stake it's an entirely different animal. 

So now, my forecast outlet is here. I'll be undercutting you a lot going forward, I'm quite sure of that.   

[Summit Snow]

Actually got more snow last night - 2"- not forecasted from a lake effect plume vs the storm of the century to our NE. You can't make this shit up!!!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I will "take" any snow we get, at the same time, I've now transitioned to bigger game hunting. Getting 2" of snow that is gone in 23 minutes doesn't excite me in late February and March. I'm investing in opportunities for storms that could deliver at least 6" or more. I think really it comes down to wanting to see snow on the ground for at least a day. You know, as far as sun angle goes, yesterday was exhibit A on how strong the sun is at this time of year...cloudy day, (shoot, snow was falling for a good part of it) temps in the mid 30s and yet my pack was decimated. Take the same conditions we had yesterday and move the calendar back to early January and our landscapes would have looked a lot different this morning. 

Agree with your overall premise but I still always root for snow, no matter the amount.  I like watching it fall, I like the scenery it creates, I like putting it "in the books", I just like....well, snow ha.  But totally get what you're saying about it disappearing quickly once we head towards March.  With that said, I can confirm that every farm field from West Hempfield to Harrisburg was covered in white this morning -- a beautiful scene, even if it won't last much longer.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agree with your overall premise but I still always root for snow, no matter the amount.  I like watching it fall, I like the scenery it creates, I like putting it "in the books", I just like....well, snow ha.  But totally get what you're saying about it disappearing quickly once we head towards March.  With that said, I can confirm that every farm field from West Hempfield to Harrisburg was covered in white this morning -- a beautiful scene, even if it won't last much longer.

My south-facing yard was 50% covered when I got home from work last evening, and what was covered was down to about 1-1.5". My more sheltered areas still had decent coverage. Just want to clarify that it didn't all disappear but it did take a beating. 

[ChescoWx]

Sunny with below normal temperatures today with highs struggling to top freezing in most spots. Still with the increasing strength of the late February sun, we should see more melting of our snowpack. It looks like a little light snow will cross the area overnight tonight and toward rush hour. Snow amounts look minor, but the timing could make for a slippery commute in spots. We will warm it into the mid 40's tomorrow. A little more snow or rain is possible on Thursday before we clear up for the weekend. Saturday may see temperatures near 50 degrees. We chill back down to start the new work week, and snow chances again look to increase by Monday.

[anotherman]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My south-facing yard was 50% covered when I got home from work last evening, and what was covered was down to about 1-1.5". My more sheltered areas still had decent coverage. Just want to clarify that it didn't all disappear but it did take a beating. 

People joke about sun angle but it makes a huge difference.  December and January snow lasts the longest for a reason.

[pawatch]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

People joke about sun angle but it makes a huge difference.  December and January snow lasts the longest for a reason.

What sun angle? It’s been cloudy almost everyday   

[NepaJames8602]

49 minutes ago, Summit Snow said:

Actually got more snow last night - 2"- not forecasted from a lake effect plume vs the storm of the century to our NE. You can't make this shit up!!!

5" in the Poconos from that blizzard warning I was under, that had virtually no winds LOL. And 1.5" of non forecasted lake effect at my place this am lol.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Agree with your overall premise but I still always root for snow, no matter the amount.  I like watching it fall, I like the scenery it creates, I like putting it "in the books", I just like....well, snow ha.  But totally get what you're saying about it disappearing quickly once we head towards March.  With that said, I can confirm that every farm field from West Hempfield to Harrisburg was covered in white this morning -- a beautiful scene, even if it won't last much longer.

On way to office, I saw snowmobile tracks in "normal" spots.  There was enough that they were out last night.  Surely not the best conditions, but enough.  I thought about going for a rip tonight if it holds from todays cold....but theres that sun angle stuff n all so maybe not. We do have slightly more in Ephrata though. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

People joke about sun angle but it makes a huge difference.  December and January snow lasts the longest for a reason.

We all know it is absolutely true, but when folks throw it into disco into Dec/Jan convos, while it might have a smidge of truth, its often snow haters overreaching IMO. We can read the room as to whos who in the love/hate relationship w/ snow. 

 

[Voyager]

56 minutes ago, pawatch said:

What sun angle? It’s been cloudy almost everyday   

Actually, I was going to ask about that. Does anyone have stats on cloudy vs sunny days? Besides the cold and wind, it seems like it's been exceptionally cloudy this winter.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

What sun angle? It’s been cloudy almost everyday   

Yep, and that was my point. Despite it being a dark, overcast day yesterday, there was enough solar radiation to do it's damage on my snow cover. When the sun angle is lowest the radiation is really mitigated. That's why I covet holiday snow...it coincides with the best staying power season. 

[Superstorm]

I will "take" any snow we get, at the same time, I've now transitioned to bigger game hunting. Getting 2" of snow that is gone in 23 minutes doesn't excite me in late February and March. I'm investing in opportunities for storms that could deliver at least 6" or more. I think really it comes down to wanting to see snow on the ground for at least a day. You know, as far as sun angle goes, yesterday was exhibit A on how strong the sun is at this time of year...cloudy day, (shoot, snow was falling for a good part of it) temps in the mid 30s and yet my pack was decimated. Take the same conditions we had yesterday and move the calendar back to early January and our landscapes would have looked a lot different this morning. 

Agree. After that last storm, seeing anything else that’s not going to have staying power is useless. Unless you’re looking to pat the stats.

I’m already geared up for baseball!


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

23 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Actually, I was going to ask about that. Does anyone have stats on cloudy vs sunny days? Besides the cold and wind, it seems like it's been exceptionally cloudy this winter.

The monthly, seasonal, and annual climate summary reports for the official stations roughly sum things up.  See below for an example from January's report.

SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT)   MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER           0.62
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR            4
NUMBER OF DAYS PC             16
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY         11

AVERAGE RH (PERCENT)     63

WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM              0     MIXED PRECIP               0
HEAVY RAIN                0     RAIN                       1
LIGHT RAIN                5     FREEZING RAIN              0
LT FREEZING RAIN          1     HAIL                       0
HEAVY SNOW                2     SNOW                       4
LIGHT SNOW                7     SLEET                      2
FOG                      13     FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE      4
HAZE                      3

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Agree. After that last storm, seeing anything else that’s not going to have staying power is useless. Unless you’re looking to pat the stats.

I’m already geared up for baseball!


.

My Orioles and Phillies tickets were uploaded to my MLB Ballpark App last week. Let's go! We better enjoy this season...

[anotherman]

My Orioles and Phillies tickets were uploaded to my MLB Ballpark App last week. Let's go! We better enjoy this season...

Yeah, 2027 looks unlikely….