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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


MAG5035
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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I might need to check out for awhile, the emotional roller coaster by some on here is kind of unbearable.

I'm sorry. It's just that past experiences do play into the somewhat negative tone. I'll try to cool it, though.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I might need to check out for awhile, the emotional roller coaster by some on here is kind of unbearable.

You do what you need to do. But I will speak for myself here - I'm simply reporting what I'm seeing. You have to understand that you can be a little too... optimistic? Last night we were going back and forth a bit and you insisted we weren't going to lose a single flake. Well, the reality is it's been 100% rain here with temps well above freezing. And that's exactly what I expected. Again, I wasn't being negative. This is playing out exactly the way I expected it to. For me to say otherwise would have been wishcasting.

I am not complaining or being negative. I am calling it the way I see it and what is happening. Nothing more, nothing less.

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You do what you need to do. But I will speak for myself here - I'm simply reporting what I'm seeing. You have to understand that you can be a little too... optimistic? Last night we were going back and forth a bit and you insisted we weren't going to lose a single flake. Well, the reality is it's been 100% rain here with temps well above freezing. And that's exactly what I expected. Again, I wasn't being negative. This is playing out exactly the way I expected it to. For me to say otherwise would have been wishcasting.

I am not complaining or being negative. I am calling it the way I see it and what is happening. Nothing more, nothing less.

I'm with you, I think it's just being realistic at the end of the day, you knew once the GFS came in with less and the NAM came down to reality, you saw the hand writing on the wall that this was shifting east and lessoning the totals unless you get lucky with the IVT.  The key to remember isn't just the shift east, it's taking away the heavy precipitation also with that shift and would limit the amount of snow then.  I'm ok with optimism, as we all love snow here, but for me I just go with climo and a La-Nina and I think that helps me keep my expectations in check.  Back to watching USA USA USA!

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I think the optimism was peaked when we saw early morn start a couple days ago and yesterday we saw enough warmth to warrant caution as the notable snows and qpf shifted twds afternoon. We all knew any shift east could mean a lot with us on western periphery. It’s still going to snow and be a nice storm, but as often the case with marginal antecedent it takes rates. We don’t have them yet but will later. 
light rain and maybe a couple flakes mixed in. I’ll keep looking out the window waiting for the changeover. Hopefully soon. Enjoy the day gang. 

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