Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Sure seems like it, maybe the next three nights. I know the initial drop can come quick right after sundown and be a bit deceiving, plus a little batch of clouds or winds can screw things up, but if I were a betting man, yes. 

We are an igloo here lol - been a long long time since Harrisburg had this winter look 

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. 

Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE?  IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead.  cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS.  Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

I just think the phase happens too late, its hard to bring a later developing coastal low off the Carolina coast back in close enough to affect central PA without some kind of a situation where its completely cut off/blocked downstream.. which doesn’t look to be the situation here. The storm deepens rapidly and may retro a bit but then it shoots NE. New Euros doing some kind of dumbbelling type action with the low, which acts to really drive up its snow solution in southern New England. 

Cold’s probably playing a hand in it too, we’re in a frigid pattern. We’re looking at the potential for some record lows Saturday morning as this storm is just beginning to take shape. The center of the closed 500mb low is all way down over Savannah, GA as the trough rotates negative. That’s a bit too far down for us, the surface low explodes on the Gulf Stream and will likely run up along it. 

[ChescoWx]

The NWS forecast for many spots across Chester County has low temperatures falling to below zero for the next 3 mornings. To put that in perspective. I have lived here in East Nantmeal and have been taking daily observations for the last 23 years. For the first 9 years from 2004-2013 we never had a below zero reading. Since 2014 we have had only 7 such days and have never even experienced consecutive days below zero. Of note East Nantmeal is at a relatively higher elevation at 685 ft asl. Some relatively low spots like Warwick Township (407 ft asl) have had 12 subzero days since 2012. Below is the list of the only below zero days here in East Nantmeal.

1/31/19 - 4.8 below

2/20/15 - 3.1 below

2/16/15 - 2.8 below

1/7/14 - 1.6 below

1/24/11 - 1.2 below

1/22/14 - 1.0 below

2/24/15 - 0.3 below

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m so done with tracking this storm this weekend. It’s a complicated set up & we rarely do complicated situations well around here.

Moving into later next week into the week of the 7th to 14th, the pattern still looks cold & active with chances. 

We still have 2 more months to score snow.

[anotherman]

I’m so done with tracking this storm this weekend. It’s a complicated set up & we rarely do complicated situations well around here.
Moving into later next week into the week of the 7th to 14th, the pattern still looks cold & active with chances. 

We still have 2 more months to score snow.

You know it’s a frustrating storm when Blizz packs it in.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

You know it’s a frustrating storm when Blizz packs it in.

This one is frustrating the heck out of me, so I’m moving on to what’s potentially next.

At least we are above normal snow at MDT & already have our best snow season since 2021 in the books.

[mahantango#1]

It's already -4 here. Just how low will it go?

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m so done with tracking this storm this weekend. It’s a complicated set up & we rarely do complicated situations well around here.

Moving into later next week into the week of the 7th to 14th, the pattern still looks cold & active with chances. 

We still have 2 more months to score snow.

A couple nice looking clippers possible the next week!

[Ruin]

so no chances at all this moves enough north west or the precip shield goes back enough to get any snow in central PA?

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

so no chances at all this moves enough north west or the precip shield goes back enough to get any snow in central PA?

I wouldn't say there's no chance. I think if enough gather in song and prayer, we still reel this one in. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

6 hours ago, anotherman said:

You know it’s a frustrating storm when Blizz packs it in.

Maybe he's being held captive by a map hating insane forum member, and that's actually an imposter that we're talking to. 

[Voyager]

I have very light snow falling here in Tamaqua. What the hell???

[mahantango#1]

Got down to -9 overnight it's 4 above now.

[pawatch]

10 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

It's already -4 here. Just how low will it go?

Temperatures were all around last night. Got up at 2:00am P break, -7 degrees 

Got up this morning and 3 degrees and a coating of snow.

Blizz thanks for your hard work. This winter is kicking your ass  

 

Just looked temp dropped to -1° 

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 6 in Marysville 

[Blizzard of 93]

12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Back home sweet home. 12 degrees. Ran into a wintry landscape in southern VA. Only difference is down that way the entire pack IS a glacier. It is about 4-5" of ice. Incredible.

Welcome back to the tundra!

[mahantango#1]

12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Back home sweet home. 12 degrees. Ran into a wintry landscape in southern VA. Only difference is down that way the entire pack IS a glacier. It is about 4-5" of ice. Incredible.

Since your home now, I think you can put your thong back in mothballs, as it is way too cold for that thing here.

[anotherman]

Since your home now, I think you can put your thong back in mothballs, as it is way too cold for that thing here.

[Summit Snow]

Currently -7 and got down to -10. Brutal cold.

[Voyager]

56 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Temperatures were all around last night. Got up at 2:00am P break, -7 degrees 

Got up this morning and 3 degrees and a coating of snow.

Blizz thanks for your hard work. This winter is kicking your ass  

 

Just looked temp dropped to -1° 

This winter IS kicking MY ass. I had to call off work today because I couldn't stay off the toilet. As such, I'm physically drained. I don't know if I caught a bug, or if depression, anxiety, and stress made sick.

I really wish we'd get a mild break again. This relentless dumping of arctic air into the east (along with a few non weather related issues) is really messing with me.

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This winter IS kicking MY ass. I had to call off work today because I couldn't stay off the toilet. As such, I'm physically drained. I don't know if I caught a bug, or if depression, anxiety, and stress made sick.

I really wish we'd get a mild break again. This relentless dumping of arctic air into the east (along with a few non weather related issues) is really messing with me

Wife got a call this morning as she is a Supervisor for USDA. Her employee said at one of the establishments in Shenandoah probably wouldn't be working today as there is a water main break effecting the whole town, Sounds like the whole town is without water. And it will take most of the daylight hours to fix it.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of five here, as I sit up a wee bit too high on the ridge, but it looks like most spots around me hit near-zero or below.  It's interesting that most of the sites seemed to hit their low pretty early in the night ~1-3am.  I assume some clouds moved through.  Next two nights may go lower.  Onward.

[mahantango#1]

So I guess were sticking a fork in this weekends snow event?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Welcome back to the tundra!

I wasn't going to say this but since you sort of baited me, I will - I'm being completely honest...it "felt" colder in Florida both when I arrived back on the 18th and when I left on the 27th. The combination of temps in the 30s with sustained 20+mph winds and the cold down there is different...it's not as dry down there so it actually feels colder than it does up here. When I was in Jacksonville on Tuesday morning the real feel was 12. It was really, really cold. 

On the flip side, there were several days last week when it was hot. Mid to high 80s temps with low 70s dewpoints. So I really had a chance to experience the best and worst of Florida's climate in one single trip. Really fascinating how it all went down. I'll add that I'm happy to be home. My trip was an entirely solo trip. (my wife and I are perfectly fine  ) I was doing some scouting/research for some opportunities I'm investing in as I transition into retirement in the next several years. I'll share more when it's appropriate. 

[canderson]

Got down to 5 here. 

Happy our Saturday trip to the city won’t be impacted by snow. 

[pawatch]

Snow forecast for the outer banks 8-12 inches  

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pawatch said:

Snow forecast for the outer banks 8-12 inches  

Part of me wants to go see it. I can't since I just was away for 2 weeks, but I love OBX and have spent a lot of time there. I think it would be awesome to experience a snowstorm in such a beautiful place. 

[Jns2183]

Snow forecast for the outer banks 8-12 inches  

I think they may verify for a blizzard

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

I think they may verify for a blizzard

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Well they will most certainly have the winds - everything I've seen points to somewhere between 50-65 mph along with the snow. 

[ChescoWx]

Well, most spots stayed above zero including here in East Nantmeal where our low was 5.5 above zero. A couple of our network stations reached below zero with both Warwick Township (-6.5 below) and Nottingham (-0.3). A reinforcing shot of arctic air arrives later today so the NWS continues to have most spots with below zero low temperatures again tonight and Friday night. The coastal storm this weekend continues to look likely to stay far enough southeast of our area to give us no more than flurries. Any potential snow accumulation looks to be confined to the shore points. Either way our persistent cold pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future. In fact, the longer-range ensemble models have us staying below freezing both day and night through at least mid-February! This if it occurred may be one of our greatest sustained cold periods on record with data back to 1894. I will need to do a little digging on that one. Either way stay warm!