Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Sure seems like it, maybe the next three nights. I know the initial drop can come quick right after sundown and be a bit deceiving, plus a little batch of clouds or winds can screw things up, but if I were a betting man, yes. 

We are an igloo here lol - been a long long time since Harrisburg had this winter look 

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. 

Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE?  IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead.  cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS.  Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

I just think the phase happens too late, its hard to bring a later developing coastal low off the Carolina coast back in close enough to affect central PA without some kind of a situation where its completely cut off/blocked downstream.. which doesn’t look to be the situation here. The storm deepens rapidly and may retro a bit but then it shoots NE. New Euros doing some kind of dumbbelling type action with the low, which acts to really drive up its snow solution in southern New England. 

Cold’s probably playing a hand in it too, we’re in a frigid pattern. We’re looking at the potential for some record lows Saturday morning as this storm is just beginning to take shape. The center of the closed 500mb low is all way down over Savannah, GA as the trough rotates negative. That’s a bit too far down for us, the surface low explodes on the Gulf Stream and will likely run up along it. 

[ChescoWx]

The NWS forecast for many spots across Chester County has low temperatures falling to below zero for the next 3 mornings. To put that in perspective. I have lived here in East Nantmeal and have been taking daily observations for the last 23 years. For the first 9 years from 2004-2013 we never had a below zero reading. Since 2014 we have had only 7 such days and have never even experienced consecutive days below zero. Of note East Nantmeal is at a relatively higher elevation at 685 ft asl. Some relatively low spots like Warwick Township (407 ft asl) have had 12 subzero days since 2012. Below is the list of the only below zero days here in East Nantmeal.

1/31/19 - 4.8 below

2/20/15 - 3.1 below

2/16/15 - 2.8 below

1/7/14 - 1.6 below

1/24/11 - 1.2 below

1/22/14 - 1.0 below

2/24/15 - 0.3 below

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m so done with tracking this storm this weekend. It’s a complicated set up & we rarely do complicated situations well around here.

Moving into later next week into the week of the 7th to 14th, the pattern still looks cold & active with chances. 

We still have 2 more months to score snow.

[anotherman]

I’m so done with tracking this storm this weekend. It’s a complicated set up & we rarely do complicated situations well around here.
Moving into later next week into the week of the 7th to 14th, the pattern still looks cold & active with chances. 

We still have 2 more months to score snow.

You know it’s a frustrating storm when Blizz packs it in.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

You know it’s a frustrating storm when Blizz packs it in.

This one is frustrating the heck out of me, so I’m moving on to what’s potentially next.

At least we are above normal snow at MDT & already have our best snow season since 2021 in the books.

[mahantango#1]

It's already -4 here. Just how low will it go?

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m so done with tracking this storm this weekend. It’s a complicated set up & we rarely do complicated situations well around here.

Moving into later next week into the week of the 7th to 14th, the pattern still looks cold & active with chances. 

We still have 2 more months to score snow.

A couple nice looking clippers possible the next week!

[Ruin]

so no chances at all this moves enough north west or the precip shield goes back enough to get any snow in central PA?