pasnownut Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GEFS/EPS ensemble members at 12z Sun....... Thanks for sharing. as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement. So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks. THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago There's a few flakes flying out here. I'm out at the Animal Hospital of Rye in Blizzard's neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Thanks for sharing. as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement. So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks. THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range. We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago GFS close again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, anotherman said: GFS close again. close, but still gets kicked east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nothing on radar, but getting a crazy squall up here in Hazleton right now... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On the GFS for the weekend, what is preventing that thing from coming farther north?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, whiteout said: On the GFS for the weekend, what is preventing that thing from coming farther north? . kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: kicker You forgot to post the GEFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You forgot to post the GEFS... Good catch. nooner was 3 contour closed at 500, and now 5 countour for HH. That just made my HH a whole lot happier. Much better phasing on ens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 38 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: kicker Please show me the kicker you speak of on the GFS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Did you look at hh 500's? That was definately a nicer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z GEFS slightly improved from 12z. Plenty of time still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 18z GEFS slightly improved from 12z. Plenty of time still . I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago JB said tonight on the weekend storm that there are to many days to go to give up on it yet. In other words there are many pieces that would have to align and some aren't in the US yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times. If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want. It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events. Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock. This past storm has 100-200 mile adjustments within the last 60 hours prior to starting. This one is trickier since its purely a phasing system versus a massive juiced up southern wave so a lot needs to go right at the right moment to bury everyone, but a 150 mile shift with more than 96 hours to go is not impossible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, AccuChris said: This past storm has 100-200 mile adjustments within the last 60 hours prior to starting. This one is trickier since its purely a phasing system versus a massive juiced up southern wave so a lot needs to go right at the right moment to bury everyone, but a 150 mile shift with more than 96 hours to go is not impossible . totally agree. poor or late phase, its pure fish food. Decent capture, its a scraper, nice/good capture, its a nuke job for some (and that some may NOT be us) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z Euro Op was a miss just east but also was better than its 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno · 5m I think this is a miss for NYC -PHL-DCA & probably RIC.Upstream energy will kick the upper low off NC coast then to NE. Eastern MA could get into the western periphery of storm Sun.Liklely a bomb cyclone resulting in coastal damage & flooding mid-atl/Northeast. Full moon is FEB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Add Steve Knight to the list of TV mets to go off on social media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18Z EPS ensembles. Big move northwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago Hey guys, I had a rough day yesterday with snow removal. My snow blower broke right when I tried to fire it up. The pull cord gave way & snapped off. Then, I tried several times to use the electric start, but had no luck. My neighbors came to my rescue. My next door neighbor let me borrow his & then my good pal across the street came over with his snow blower to help me as well. It would have been a nightmare to hand shovel my lengthy sidewalk & dig out 3 vehicles that were plowed in on the street. Despite the wonderful help, it still took over 4 hours to remove the foot of snow & sleet. The snow piles on the street from digging out are massive. If we get more snow this weekend, it’s going to be a real challenge. I thought about rooting against this weekend’s chance, but who the heck am I kidding…?! Lets’s try to reel this next one in! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hey guys, I had a rough day yesterday with snow removal. My snow blower broke right when I tried to fire it up. The pull cord gave way & snapped off. Then, I tried several times to use the electric start, but had no luck. My neighbors came to my rescue. My next door neighbor let me borrow his & then my good pal across the street came over with his snow blower to help me as well. It would have been a nightmare to hand shovel my lengthy sidewalk & dig out 3 vehicles that were plowed in on the street. Despite the wonderful help, it still took over 4 hours to remove the foot of snow & sleet. The snow piles on the street from digging out are massive. If we get more snow this weekend, it’s going to be a real challenge. I thought about rooting against this weekend’s chance, but who the heck am I kidding…?! Lets’s try to reel this next one in! I'm coming home tomorrow after 2 full weeks on the road. Great trip, will be even better to be back in my own bed. Shame though. I have no hope for this weekend. Our new friend the mouse has made it clear we need to move on. Well that settles that. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago Are we taking the 981 closest to the bay or the 957 nuke a little further east? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hey guys, I had a rough day yesterday with snow removal. My snow blower broke right when I tried to fire it up. The pull cord gave way & snapped off. Then, I tried several times to use the electric start, but had no luck. My neighbors came to my rescue. My next door neighbor let me borrow his & then my good pal across the street came over with his snow blower to help me as well. It would have been a nightmare to hand shovel my lengthy sidewalk & dig out 3 vehicles that were plowed in on the street. Despite the wonderful help, it still took over 4 hours to remove the foot of snow & sleet. The snow piles on the street from digging out are massive. If we get more snow this weekend, it’s going to be a real challenge. I thought about rooting against this weekend’s chance, but who the heck am I kidding…?! Lets’s try to reel this next one in! Blizz thanks for all your help on here! Glad you got some help with snow removal. Personally getting all the snow off the vehicles, wears me out. I need to be a few inches taller. If it’s not much snow I just blow it off the vehicles with my leaf blower. As far as snow we will take whatever the snow Gods decide to give us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 26 minutes ago Share Posted 26 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Are we taking the 981 closest to the bay or the 957 nuke a little further east? Give me 981 off VA Beach please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Are we taking the 981 closest to the bay or the 957 nuke a little further east? Hmmmm the 57 might be a little too wound up and have a stronger but more tightly wrapped precip shield. Give me the 81 haha. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hey guys, I had a rough day yesterday with snow removal. My snow blower broke right when I tried to fire it up. The pull cord gave way & snapped off. Then, I tried several times to use the electric start, but had no luck. My neighbors came to my rescue. My next door neighbor let me borrow his & then my good pal across the street came over with his snow blower to help me as well. It would have been a nightmare to hand shovel my lengthy sidewalk & dig out 3 vehicles that were plowed in on the street. Despite the wonderful help, it still took over 4 hours to remove the foot of snow & sleet. The snow piles on the street from digging out are massive. If we get more snow this weekend, it’s going to be a real challenge. I thought about rooting against this weekend’s chance, but who the heck am I kidding…?! Lets’s try to reel this next one in! I’m not kidding, buy this - it’s a beast: https://egopowerplus.com/two-stage-28-inch-deluxe-snow-blower-snt2807/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: JB said tonight on the weekend storm that there are to many days to go to give up on it yet. In other words there are many pieces that would have to align and some aren't in the US yet. Like him or not he's 100% correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 7 minutes ago Share Posted 7 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, pawatch said: Blizz thanks for all your help on here! Glad you got some help with snow removal. Personally getting all the snow off the vehicles, wears me out. I need to be a few inches taller. If it’s not much snow I just blow it off the vehicles with my leaf blower. As far as snow we will take whatever the snow Gods decide to give us. not every storm is perfect, but yeah, if we can eek out a few inches on western edge of qpf, I'll be giddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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