Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GEFS/EPS ensemble members at 12z Sun.......

Thanks for sharing.  as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement.

So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks.  THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

There's a few flakes flying out here.  I'm out at the Animal Hospital of Rye in Blizzard's neck of the woods.

[Jns2183]

Thanks for sharing.  as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement.
So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks.  THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range.  

We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade

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[anotherman]

GFS close again.

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

GFS close again.

close, but still gets kicked east

[Voyager]

Nothing on radar, but getting a crazy squall up here in Hazleton right now...

[whiteout]

On the GFS for the weekend, what is preventing that thing from coming farther north?


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[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, whiteout said:

On the GFS for the weekend, what is preventing that thing from coming farther north?


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kicker 

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

kicker 

You forgot to post the GEFS...

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You forgot to post the GEFS...

Good catch.  nooner was 3 contour closed at 500, and now 5 countour for HH.  That just made my HH a whole lot happier.  Much better phasing on ens.  

 

[pasnownut]

38 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

kicker 

Please show me the kicker you speak of on the GFS??

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

We need a phase unlike any we've seen in a decade

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Did you look at hh 500's? 

That was definately a nicer look.  

[AccuChris]

18z GEFS slightly improved from 12z. Plenty of time still


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[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z GEFS slightly improved from 12z. Plenty of time still


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I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). 

What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times.  If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want.  It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events.  Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.

 

 

[mahantango#1]

JB said tonight on the weekend storm that there are to many days to go to give up on it yet. In other words there are many pieces that would have to align and some aren't in the US yet.

[AccuChris]

I think my frustration is that some here expect every model run to show the perfect hit all the time, or dont realize that just because some model shows something good a week out, its a rarity that they lock in (last week despite last minute taint, was largely a lock from many models from waayy out there at 7 days). 
What we see this week is more typical gyrations and how it goes MOST times.  If youre new to this, please keep this in mind when a model doesnt show you what you want.  It doesnt work that way in this business, and sometimes we find ourselves shoehornin our way into events.  Pattern looks great, but it doesnt mean its a lock.
 
 

This past storm has 100-200 mile adjustments within the last 60 hours prior to starting. This one is trickier since its purely a phasing system versus a massive juiced up southern wave so a lot needs to go right at the right moment to bury everyone, but a 150 mile shift with more than 96 hours to go is not impossible


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[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

This past storm has 100-200 mile adjustments within the last 60 hours prior to starting. This one is trickier since its purely a phasing system versus a massive juiced up southern wave so a lot needs to go right at the right moment to bury everyone, but a 150 mile shift with more than 96 hours to go is not impossible


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totally agree.  poor or late phase, its pure fish food.  Decent capture, its a scraper, nice/good capture, its a nuke job for some (and that some may NOT be us)

[AccuChris]

18z Euro Op was a miss just east but also was better than its 12z run


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