Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

GFS vs. the NAM boys who we takin'??

GFS held serve.  Man do I wanna believe.  NAM's hard not to consider tho.  0z's gonna be boom r bust for LSV.  If Euro holds, I'll breathe a little better.  

 

[pasnownut]

Warmer runs you can see the STJ pumping a little harder which helps keep primary a tad more juiced and hangin on longer.  Thats my take anyways.  

GFS really is the best way to win this one and verbatim HH was a tough better once coastal pops as column cools and we are once again safe vertically speakin. 

With Euro still hangin on as well, I'll roll the dice w/ GFS Euro combo and any B teamers that wanna join in.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

GFS mostly holds serve but does bring the sleet line a wee bit further north.  It's that 800-750mb layer that always kills us.  Need the big thump before any worries arrive.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS mostly holds serve but does bring the sleet line a wee bit further north.  It's that 800-750mb layer that always kills us.  Need the big thump before any worries arrive.

Yes. It's been a slow but noticeable bleed. And that will matter south and east of 81.

[paweather]

GFS for the win!

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS mostly holds serve but does bring the sleet line a wee bit further north.  It's that 800-750mb layer that always kills us.  Need the big thump before any worries arrive.

yeah somewhere between you and i looks to be "the line".  Not sweatin it yet, but if 0z NAM's come in any warmer, it might be time to start rethinkin my thinkin. 

This event has been largely consistent on most models for a couple days, so I cant imagine big surprises exist, but for as we've been sayin for a couple days, a little means a lot for us in the transition zone.  

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

@MAG5035 - you going to do a map? It’s been a long while! 

I might do one. Think I at least want to see what the 0z suite offers up first. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

I might do one. Think I at least want to see what the 0z suite offers up first. 

You and everyone else haha.  Your post with the skew-t was spot on, how so many people just look at the 850 and 700 panels and assume they're good when it's always that layer in between that gets us.  So aggravating for us southeasterners, always fighting it.

[Jns2183]

Now that this is finally into 3k NAM range we can have a look at the sounding to see what we’re dealing with in terms of warm air intrusion aloft. 
Sounding for LNS (Lancaster) at hour 56

As you can see, the warm air intrusion is pretty high, situated between the 850mb and 700mb layer. That’s why at first glance the 850 and 700 mb temp maps might look okay for an all snow column. Could it be too aggressive with the WAA at that level? Sure, but I’ll forewarn that this was the exact situation that sunk the significant snow in a lot of NE PA back on 12/26. NAM was about the only thing that caught that. And it doesn’t matter how cold it is at the surface. When you melt a falling a snowflake it doesn’t turn back into a snowflake when it refreezes. 
This is a different storm setup to be sure, and again.. there will be significant snows before any mixing where it happens. And sleet will be the predominant mix type given strength and depth of the arctic air mass. 

Also the warm nose can stay negative but still screw enough with snowflake microphysics you end up with ratios well below 10:1

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[AccuChris]

Lord have mercy…its still there on the 18z GFS later next weekend



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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just for sh$ts and giggles, here is what the GFS threw out for next sunday into monday, just a whole hog coastal bomb.  KMJS for the win haha.....

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Just for sh$ts and giggles, here is what the GFS threw out for next sunday into monday, just a whole hog coastal bomb.  KMJS for the win haha.....

Just your every day 20" difference between Middletown and Lancaster.

[GrandmasterB]

18Z Euro for those not lurking in the MA

[GrandmasterB]

MU spiking the ball with the 18Z NAM and saying he didn’t go conservative enough. 

[anotherman]

[paweather]

32 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

MU spiking the ball with the 18Z NAM and saying he didn’t go conservative enough. 

Maybe he should look at all models?

[Superstorm]

Maybe he should look at all models?

If that primary ends up stronger, he will be right.

I’m just hoping it isn’t.


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[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe he should look at all models?

I asked him that on X because I can read the NAM too. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe he should look at all models?

Yeah MU can say n do what he wants. 18zs say it ain’t over by a king shot and even if us SErs lose some to taint a pingerfest is what we transition to. I’m knocking table right now. Check. 

[canderson]

Feeling confident still for my 12.4” MDT call 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

If that primary ends up stronger, he will be right.

I’m just hoping it isn’t.


.

And cad is often under modeled so imo no matter how the sneaky 700 layer taints the slightest adjustments for cad will only show up tomorrow nooners and beyond. 
primary keeps making its press known, then we’ve got a battle. 
while this is a tough line I still like that the waa is coming at us and not straight up from the south. Not abandoning what I’ve been feeling for days. 
If I’m wrong, so be it. Gonna b a great event even if we ping down here. 

[Superstorm]

And cad is often under modeled so imo no matter how the sneaky 700 layer taints the slightest adjustments for cad will only show up tomorrow nooners and beyond. 
primary keeps making its press known, then we’ve got a battle. 
while this is a tough line I still like that the waa is coming at us and not straight up from the south. Not abandoning what I’ve been feeling for days. 
If I’m wrong, so be it. Gonna b a great event even if we ping down here. 

No doubt. We will be thumping snow pretty good.

And with the attic FRESH air mass in place I do agree CAD may be better than advertised.


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[WmsptWx]

I fear my prediction of "trace" may bust a teency bit low...

[Ruin]

https://penncapital-star.com/briefs/gov-shapiro-declares-emergency-penndot-imposes-vehicle-restrictions-ahead-of-winter-storm/

 

 

I remember when they use to hand out fines during state of emergency or snow emergency. I dont think thry even do that any more 

[Ruin]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

No doubt. We will be thumping snow pretty good.

And with the attic FRESH air mass in place I do agree CAD may be better than advertised.


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What I've been saying 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

18Z Euro for those not lurking in the MA

Cutting back on totals I see? 

[Burghblizz]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Cutting back on totals I see? 

That’s only through 5 PM Sunday 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

https://penncapital-star.com/briefs/gov-shapiro-declares-emergency-penndot-imposes-vehicle-restrictions-ahead-of-winter-storm/

 

 

I remember when they use to hand out fines during state of emergency or snow emergency. I dont think thry even do that any more 

Based on what’s coming at us I think it a smart move. 

[Ruin]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Based on what’s coming at us I think it a smart move. 

It is but if they do see you driving i doubt they stop you.

[Blizzard of 93]