Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

MU is favoring (slightly) a phased storm that brings a moderate to major snowfall.

The warminsta is onboard. Sort of.

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is favoring (slightly) a phased storm that brings a moderate to major snowfall.

The warminsta is onboard. Sort of.

MU on the train, honk, honk!

[CarlislePaWx]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is favoring (slightly) a phased storm that brings a moderate to major snowfall.

The warminsta is onboard. Sort of.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[CarlislePaWx]

All it takes is literally just 1" of snowcover combined with optimal radiational cooling to cause plummeting temperatures.  My low this morning was 8.4 degrees.  I have just surpassed that with a new low of 7.7 degrees, and tanking.  My dew point is -1 degree F, so there's a decent shot at a low of zero tomorrow morning.  My coldest minimum so far this season is +3.4 degrees which occurred back on December 16th.  The two days prior saw a total of 1.3" of snow, which was the cover that morning.

[paweather]

18z UKIE

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

18z UKIE

That’s the Ukie ensemble, but I love it!

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is latest NBM National Blend 

[paweather]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s the Ukie ensemble, but I love it!

Sorry about that. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Sorry about that. 

It’s all good to see the positive trends.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z Ai EPS also had its best run of the day:

[mahantango#1]

If i read it right JB is going with 10-15 for Harrisburg. He said if he has to change anything it will be Thursday.

[AccuChris]

Long range 0z NAM is primed and ready with the southwest energy ejecting out to phase



.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

If i read it right JB is going with 10-15 for Harrisburg. He said if he has to change anything it will be Thursday.

He is just picking analogs of the top 3 historical storms that look like this current storm’s potential. When you blend those 3 analog storm totals, you get 10 to 15 at Harrisburg per his post this evening. One of his 3 analogs was PD2 back in February 2003. This storm as I mentioned a couple of days ago also reminds me a lot of that storm with the Arctic press meeting up with a strong moisture plume halfway across the country that delivered 20 inches to Harrisburg.

 

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He is just picking analogs of the top 3 historical storms that look like this current storm’s potential. When you blend those 3 analog storm totals, you get 10 to 15 at Harrisburg per his post this evening. One of his 3 analogs was PD2 back in February 2003. This storm as I mentioned a couple of days ago also reminds me a lot of that storm with the Arctic press meeting up with a strong moisture plume halfway across the country that delivered 20 inches to Harrisburg.

 

I thought he was forecasting, because he used the word now.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Nice to be tracking a potential big one after all these years. I know a lot of the state hasn't seen a big snowstorm in 5 or 6 years now.

[JDClapper]