Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

4 hours ago, sauss06 said:

If i was a betting man, i'd put my money on Friday 1/30-2/1 

Hey someone got their 1989 Compuserve computer to work! 

[canderson]

Sneaky shot at 60 Friday   

[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hey someone got their 1989 Compuserve computer to work! 

I had a Compaq

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Hey someone got their 1989 Compuserve computer to work! 

i did and i actually set up another account too as i couldn't get logged in

[canderson]

44 for the high it seems. Feels balmy. 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS shows a couple of opportunities between the 15th & 19th. The first chance is light this run, but could have been more if the pieces phased better. The second chance misses south this run, but again the potential is there.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS is looking a lot more interesting for the chance on the 15th.

Definitely room for possible improvement at the surface with this look at H5.

[MAG5035]

The timeframe around the 15th or so has fairly consistently looked like it could be the best attempt at amplification we’ve seen so far this winter, which is definitely not saying much. Whether or not we can get some better phasing of features there remains to be seen, and probably will for a good while yet considering the range and model performance lately. There’s some potential there though, and during a period next week which should be at least seasonably cold. But in the meantime while we’re warmer and occasionally raining the next few days, 30 year anniversary of the Blizzard of 96 highlights might have to fill the void. 

Regarding the lack of bigger coastal snowstorms as of late in our neck of the woods, the Northeastern US apparently hasn’t had a RSI (NESIS) rated event since March 12-16th, 2023 (I had to do digging just to remember what that one did). There’s a slight chance the event right after Christmas might’ve snowed enough over more populated areas (NYC) to be a minimally rated one and hasn’t been added yet, but the point still stands. The last major rated NE storm was the Jan 31-Feb 2, 2021 storm.

[pawatch]

40 degrees this morning. .08” of rain overnight.

Thanks Mag and Blizz.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The timeframe around the 15th or so has fairly consistently looked like it could be the best attempt at amplification we’ve seen so far this winter, which is definitely not saying much. Whether or not we can get some better phasing of features there remains to be seen, and probably will for a good while yet considering the range and model performance lately. There’s some potential there though, and during a period next week which should be at least seasonably cold. But in the meantime while we’re warmer and occasionally raining the next few days, 30 year anniversary of the Blizzard of 96 highlights might have to fill the void. 

Regarding the lack of bigger coastal snowstorms as of late in our neck of the woods, the Northeastern US apparently hasn’t had a RSI (NESIS) rated event since March 12-16th, 2023 (I had to do digging just to remember what that one did). There’s a slight chance the event right after Christmas might’ve snowed enough over more populated areas (NYC) to be a minimally rated one and hasn’t been added yet, but the point still stands. The last major rated NE storm was the Jan 31-Feb 2, 2021 storm.

Great memories from the Blizzard of 96 back when I was a freshman in college. That week of weather with the Blizzard dropping 2 feet near Harrisburg, the mid week over performing Clipper that brought a few inches, to the end of week significant coast that brought another foot to the Harrisburg area still stands as the greatest week of weather in my lifetime.

[anotherman]

Great memories from the Blizzard of 96 back when I was a freshman in college. That week of weather with the Blizzard dropping 2 feet near Harrisburg, the mid week over performing Clipper that brought a few inches, to the end of week significant coast that brought another foot to the Harrisburg area still stands as the greatest week of weather in my lifetime.

What about February 5-10 2010?

[Blizzard of 93]

The overnight Op runs are coming around to the idea of a moisture laden storm that rides up the coast.

The 0z Euro liked the 18th, but missed just to our south this run. Plenty of time & potential in this period.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, anotherman said:

What about February 5-10 2010?

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion.

The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me.

Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS was a beautiful run showing coastal potential on the 16th.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 37 and heavy fog in the valleys. A solid .015” in the gauge but not seeing any evidence it rained. While all surfaces are wet, it has that classic heavy fog/dew combo look, so not putting anything in the books.

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion.

The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me.

Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

Wish we could get more of them this Winter.

 

[anotherman]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion.

The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me.

Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

I was at PSU during the Blizzard of '96 so that has a special place in my heart as well.  We missed out on the crazy totals (only 18 inches, haha).  

[pawatch]

Snowblower got a workout from that storm.

[mahantango#1]

[ChescoWx]

A nice January thaw day on the way although a bit breezy with highs well into the 40's. Even better weather tomorrow with sun and less wind. Shower chances increase Friday and into Saturday which will mark the end of our very brief milder period. We turn back to colder during the day Sunday and we should see normal January temperatures returning for much of next week. We may also start to see some potential for more wintry weather as we move toward the end of next week.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great memories from the Blizzard of 96 back when I was a freshman in college. That week of weather with the Blizzard dropping 2 feet near Harrisburg, the mid week over performing Clipper that brought a few inches, to the end of week significant coast that brought another foot to the Harrisburg area still stands as the greatest week of weather in my lifetime.

 

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

What about February 5-10 2010?

 

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That’s my close #2 best week in my opinion.

The historic first storm in 96 places it just above 2010 for me.

Either way, they are a clear #1 & #2 for best snow weeks in the last 30 years or more.

I actually think about those 2 weeks a lot.

My greatest snow depth in my lifetime (I'm 60) occurred in 2010. I had more snow (43" versus 40") in 2010 as well. And the 2nd storm in 2010 was a legitimate blizzard with probably the most intense 6-8 hours of snow/wind that I've witnessed other than perhaps the 1978 storm. On the flip side, that week in 1996 was wall to wall winter. As was mentioned, there were 3 separate events spaced out on Sunday, Tuesday and Friday. And it was cold all week. The 5 days between the 2 February 2010 storms was quite benign. 

They were both incredible. I guess from a "wow" factor, standing outside in the blizzard on February 10, 2010 was surreal between the rate of snowfall, wind speed, visibility and snow depth. So with that, I give a very slight edge to 2010 because I highly doubt I will ever see that much snow in my yard again in my life. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS was a beautiful run showing coastal potential on the 16th.

The 16th would be a great day for it. It'd give me a Friday off day, then the weekend to dig it out.

[WmsptWx]

11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

The 16th would be a great day for it. It'd give me a Friday off day, then the weekend to dig it out.

And a long weekend for meeeee.

[GrandmasterB]

From a met in the NE forum. Sign me up! 

“Seems a pretty straightforward setup for back half Jan, rebuild source region in western Canada late next week/weekend, likely leaking cold into the northast at times with GOA ridging (-EPO) beyond.  Chances for coastals during transition periods, and perhaps a more active southern stream from MLK and after.”

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 37 and heavy fog in the valleys. A solid .015” in the gauge but not seeing any evidence it rained. While all surfaces are wet, it has that classic heavy fog/dew combo look, so not putting anything in the books.

Debating with myself over here, as I see some Cocorahs peeps in Lancaster reported .01 or .02 inches of precip.  I would say they fell for the heavy dew trap but then I see a few WU stations right near me reported .01-.02" around the 9-10pm timeframe last night, which would seem to nullify the dew theory.  Is it possible I missed a little shower late last evening?  Can any of my local friends chime in on whether we got rain or not?  Got to keep those KMJS books accurate!

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Debating with myself over here, as I see some Cocorahs peeps in Lancaster reported .01 or .02 inches of precip.  I would say they fell for the heavy dew trap but then I see a few WU stations right near me reported .01-.02" around the 9-10pm timeframe last night, which would seem to nullify the dew theory.  Is it possible I missed a little shower late last evening?  Can any of my local friends chime in on whether we got rain or not?  Got to keep those KMJS books accurate!

Yes sir, I had a brief shower that dented the gauge to the tune of 0.1" between 9pm and 10pm. 

[sauss06]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great memories from the Blizzard of 96 back when I was a freshman in college. That week of weather with the Blizzard dropping 2 feet near Harrisburg, the mid week over performing Clipper that brought a few inches, to the end of week significant coast that brought another foot to the Harrisburg area still stands as the greatest week of weather in my lifetime.

was the best birthday present ever

[anotherman]

Having my classes learn about the blizzard of '96 and here are a few of the links we're using. 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/the-blizzard-of-96-in-retrospect-25-years-later

https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-weather-history-blizzard-of-1996/69925737

 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Wish we could get more of them this Winter.

 

fwiw, 6z GFS makes your wish come true.  Verbatim a true miller A and a CTP shellackin.  Funny that 12z loses it, as the NS/SS phase is late, but still has a decent look to it.  As has been stated a plenty, after the few day warmup/thaw, we should be back to "storms and rumors of storms".  I love that catchphrase.   

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

And a long weekend for meeeee.

6z would be a long weekend for many.....

dont look at nooner. missed the phase and a big nothinburger.  Just one run, but still has a good look.