Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[anotherman]

I actually have a visceral reaction to anomalously warm weather this time of year. It actually pisses me off.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes I know, just interjecting myself into someone else’s conversation haha. Just wanted to reiterate how close the two cabins were. All good. Also, some stray flurries flying here. The kids are excited ha. 

Oh gotcha. Yeah I know we are close, and I love when you post pics. Helps me to see what I’ve got OTG. Thanks for sharing. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I actually have a visceral reaction to anomalously warm weather this time of year. It actually pisses me off.

You are far from alone. Specially in this forum. lol. We r Sno hounds to our very core. I’m very happy with the start of winter here and warmups are part of the game. No biggie. I’m in the Sno covered crunchy ass woods of southern Lebanon county right now and can tell you it looks and feels like mid winter here. Deers winnin with the noise I’m making while scaling the ridges. 

[Itstrainingtime]

27 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I actually have a visceral reaction to anomalously warm weather this time of year. It actually pisses me off.

Same! I just had a hard time figuring out how to say so without offending anyone. As @pasnownutsaid, it's "warm" the majority of the year. I want my cold when it "should" be cold, and I especially get frustrated when it's warm during what I consider to be peak snow climo. Yes, I know that historically February is our snowiest month. But I'm talking about staying power...snow in December/early January is best when we can tap into the lower sun angle. We are squarely into the time period when I want snow the most. 

[Itstrainingtime]

@Mount Joy Snowman you will appreciate this I'm sure (and so may some others as well):

At 8:00AM on February 11th 2010 I had an average snow depth in my yard of 41". That was by far the deepest snow cover I've seen in my life. February 11th was a sunny day with a high of 32.7 degrees. My snowpack at 6:00PM that evening was 32". After a sunny and 36 degree day on February 12th my snowpack was at 20" at 6:00PM that evening. 

In less than 48 hours I lost over half of my snowpack without the temp even reaching 40 degrees. A combination of compaction, sublimation and melting destroyed the record snow cover. 

Much is argued about every year about snow accumulating in the last half of winter due to sun angle. I think it's been proven that rates will overcome that well into March as long as temps are also supportive. Having said that, LOSING snow cover is a huge deal on sunny days in February due to that very sun angle. It's very hard to maintain snow cover unless there is ice built into the pack. This is where a period of sleet can do wonders for us if we can get past the fact that it's diminishing our accumulating snow...in the long run, that sleet is giving our white gold staying power. I always try and remember that when heartache sets in with the onset of pingers...

At any rate, that is why I covet snow at this time of year. 

[ChescoWx]

47 minutes ago, TimB said:

In what world do you think Christmas will be near normal temps? Literally everything out there shows ridging in that timeframe.

A world with some ensemble temperature support is where LOL

 

[canderson]

What is the timing for this event Saturday night? Have to run to Philly and want to try to get back before roads go south. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, canderson said:

What is the timing for this event Saturday night? Have to run to Philly and want to try to get back before roads go south. 

Are you in that good of running/endurance shape? That's a pretty long run, especially round trip. 

[ChescoWx]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman you will appreciate this I'm sure (and so may some others as well):

At 8:00AM on February 11th 2010 I had an average snow depth in my yard of 41". That was by far the deepest snow cover I've seen in my life. February 11th was a sunny day with a high of 32.7 degrees. My snowpack at 6:00PM that evening was 32". After a sunny and 36 degree day on February 12th my snowpack was at 20" at 6:00PM that evening. 

In less than 48 hours I lost over half of my snowpack without the temp even reaching 40 degrees. A combination of compaction, sublimation and melting destroyed the record snow cover. 

Much is argued about every year about snow accumulating in the last half of winter due to sun angle. I think it's been proven that rates will overcome that well into March as long as temps are also supportive. Having said that, LOSING snow cover is a huge deal on sunny days in February due to that very sun angle. 

That is why I covet snow at this time of year. 

My snow cover that day was 35 inches down to 20" on Feb 17th - down to a low of 6" on the 25th but back up to 18" on the 26th. I had  snowcover from Feb 5th through March 7th

[NepaJames8602]

11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Thats quite a snow band, it’s actually reaching the whole way over through Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn in NYC where OKX has a special weather statement out for a dusting to an inch.  

It sure was, I ended up with a hair over 4.0" inches from that. Meso's and a few globals had hinted at it for a couple days, but I didn't put much stock into it at the time as its a rare occurrence this far east.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

A world with some ensemble temperature support is where LOL

 

Let’s place a friendly bet that the high temp at KMQS (not your improperly sited wx station) is at least 50 on 12/25. If I’m wrong, I won’t interact with your posts again. If I’m right, you’ll accept that AGW is real.

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Are you in that good of running/endurance shape? That's a pretty long run, especially round trip. 

I actually choked on my tea. Well done! 

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, TimB said:

Let’s place a friendly bet that the high temp at KMQS (not your improperly sited wx station) is at least 50 on 12/25. If I’m wrong, I won’t interact with your posts again. If I’m right, you’ll accept that AGW is real.

timmy encouraging fantasies like you know that you believe that man can somehow actually impact our weather or climate would not be healthy to encourage you. I still live in the real world of facts. That said I love having you interact with my posts!! I get to live rent free in your head!!

[TimB]

8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

timmy encouraging fantasies like you know that you believe that man can somehow actually impact our weather or climate would not be healthy to encourage you. I still live in the real world of facts. That said I love having you interact with my posts!! I get to live rent free in your head!!

I’d be embarrassed to have my head as far up my ass as you do. 

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

I actually choked on my tea. Well done! 

I wish that I could actually help by answering your question though...what CTP is saying is "late evening" arrival? 

[ChescoWx]

15 minutes ago, TimB said:

I’d be embarrassed to have my head as far up my ass as you do. 

Timmy with a little lack of self awareness seems to continue LOL!!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman you will appreciate this I'm sure (and so may some others as well):

At 8:00AM on February 11th 2010 I had an average snow depth in my yard of 41". That was by far the deepest snow cover I've seen in my life. February 11th was a sunny day with a high of 32.7 degrees. My snowpack at 6:00PM that evening was 32". After a sunny and 36 degree day on February 12th my snowpack was at 20" at 6:00PM that evening. 

In less than 48 hours I lost over half of my snowpack without the temp even reaching 40 degrees. A combination of compaction, sublimation and melting destroyed the record snow cover. 

Much is argued about every year about snow accumulating in the last half of winter due to sun angle. I think it's been proven that rates will overcome that well into March as long as temps are also supportive. Having said that, LOSING snow cover is a huge deal on sunny days in February due to that very sun angle. It's very hard to maintain snow cover unless there is ice built into the pack. This is where a period of sleet can do wonders for us if we can get past the fact that it's diminishing our accumulating snow...in the long run, that sleet is giving our white gold staying power. I always try and remember that when heartache sets in with the onset of pingers...

At any rate, that is why I covet snow at this time of year. 

Great post and so true.  I would emphasize that the first half or three quarters of the pack goes a LOT quicker than the last part due to heavy compaction resulting from lower density.  I've seen countless times where that last 4-6" hangs on way longer than you'd expect due to the extremely dense icy nature of the pack.  As you alluded to, sleet mixed in helps greatly but also the pack itself creates its own icy center due to the daily melt and refreeze cycle.  I know you know all this; I just love this topic ha.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

My snow cover that day was 35 inches down to 20" on Feb 17th - down to a low of 6" on the 25th but back up to 18" on the 26th. I had  snowcover from Feb 5th through March 7th

That storm you mention on the 26th was one on the list of heartaches in my life. After getting three 16"+ storms earlier in the season, that storm on the 26th was looking like it had the potential to not only be storm #4 to deliver 16"+ but possibly end up the biggest of them all, but left most of us in the LSV squarely in the screw zone. It hurt, but what had already happened earlier in the season took some of the sting off:

https://www.weather.gov/phi/02252010wss

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Only because I haven't seen it posted yet......