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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


MAG5035
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Just now, Yardstickgozinya said:

Sleet here in Fairview township.

Thank you for confirming what I was suspecting.  For the past 30 minutes I've had a mix of light sleet and snow, but more sleet based on what it looks like on my mulch and pavers.  Temp dropped from 34 down to 33.6.  As far as I can tell I'm not seeing any evidence of rain...just all frozen.

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17 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Thank you for confirming what I was suspecting.  For the past 30 minutes I've had a mix of light sleet and snow, but more sleet based on what it looks like on my mulch and pavers.  Temp dropped from 34 down to 33.6.  As far as I can tell I'm not seeing any evidence of rain...just all frozen.

It's been all frozen here  for about the last forty five minutes, still mainly sleet with some larger snowflakes mixing in at times. 

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19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It's snowing in Harrisburg as I get ready to walk to the train, wasn't expecting that this late in the day.  Nice!

Been mixing in Lititz and Ephrata for last 2 hrs. Last temp check was 35. Some pingers mixed with a lush bombs and a few bonified flakes as well. 

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4 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

Holy screw zone. 

It’s even more pronounced on the other globals. Especially on the GFS, which doesn’t have a snowflake make it east of I-99. GFS is probably on the far end of that side of the spectrum (and a bit further south with the wave as well), but that shadow off the Alleghenies is probably going to be a thing with this setup. The wave isn’t all that strong and doesn’t have much moisture to work with. Most modeling doesn’t have a closed surface low until this hits the coast, which is why the second snow swath shows up in SE PA and the DC to NYC 95 corridor. Otherwise the wave is running on a westerly flow, which downslopes off the east side of the Alleghenies. The 0z NAM had a more pronounced shortwave as it passes under PA, which made that about the only model to not have the shadow. 

 

Other modelling tonight

3z NBM (National Blend of Models) vs NBM v5. The v5 is an updated version of the NBM being tested ahead of being deployed April 2026. 

image.thumb.png.62498d00627db407e51b58914d9ee2b7.png

0z Euro

image.thumb.png.08a8342f2f0106cc8b96bf7b88b241b6.png

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So now Saturday night into Sunday.

Little to no snow. We've all been part of this song-and-dance before we have all this damn cold weather. And nothing to show for it, except little dusting here and there people will say it's too early. It's still early in the year. It's too early in the winter. And then what happens? We get a warm up and nothing happens after that. And now there's signals for a wawarml

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