Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Superstorm]

9.9F

Bone chilling


.

[mahantango#1]

Ice on the creek this morning that formed overnight. Reminds me of December 1976 and 1989.

[TimB]

Yeah, just like 1976 and 1989.

[mahantango#1]

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

Yeah, just like 1976 and 1989.

I remember those years 1989 I think after December the cold went away if I remember right. 1976 the cold continued until February. I remember walking halfway across the Susquehanna River on the ice. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Low of 6.6 degrees this morning.  I was hoping to eek out a few hours of sunshine this morning to help recharge my Tempest, but promptly at 9:00am the overcast moved back in again.  (My Tempest is 5 years old and the battery is going.  It uses solar to recharge.  Thankfully it's just a back-up for my main Ambient station.)

Temp already back up to 17.6, but with the overcast the speed of any warm up will be muted.

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

12 when I left the house, may go lower. 

I saw 10 in suburbia lititz on way into work.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

as long as its "cold enough" most of us older timers approve.  

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

as long as its "cold enough" most of us older timers approve.  

Yeah, too much cold is; well, too much for legit snow opportunities. We are seeing that play out currently with the bouts of southern snows. It was fascinating watching the snow in VA get shunted south throughout the day yesterday as the arctic air ambushed the state from north to south. 

[ChescoWx]

This morning, we saw many valley locations across the area down into the single digits for low. The lowest was the 6.1 at Warwick. This was the coldest morning since late last January when many spots saw below zero temps both the 21st and 22nd of January. We continue to keep well below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. We do warm up to closer to normal tomorrow which should allow any start of snow or freezing rain to switch to plain rain from SE to NW across the area by late morning. A couple more chances of snow look possible both on Friday night and again on Sunday morning. More frigid temperatures follow any snow potential on Sunday with the coldest day so far this year by next Monday.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Stay warm, at least there is not 2 feet of snow on the ground with 40mph winds at these temps. 

Yeah, at least it's not windy.

[Superstorm]

Yeah, too much cold is; well, too much for legit snow opportunities. We are seeing that play out currently with the bouts of southern snows. It was fascinating watching the snow in VA get shunted south throughout the day yesterday as the arctic air ambushed the state from north to south. 

Welcome back 70s and 80s


.

[Itstrainingtime]

39 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Welcome back 70s and 80s


.

Yes indeed, and I mentioned that exact thing last week. This past week or so has been a step back in time. 

[Ruin]

3 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

I said this earlier, ah, long range forecast, take it with the grain of salt, but every time they say we're supposed to get this wicked cold.Air, it never really pans out.It gets cold, but not as cold as a fresh industry claim

[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I said this earlier, ah, long range forecast, take it with the grain of salt, but every time they say we're supposed to get this wicked cold.Air, it never really pans out.It gets cold, but not as cold as a fresh industry claim

Last night actually got colder than guidance in a lot of locations. Longer term, there is probably some merit to your post. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU on the potential weekend clippers:

The numerical computer models are having a tough time figuring out the progression & evolution of the two potential clipper-type systems & subsequent "light snow" events between Friday-Sunday. Intensity, timing & tracks are changing drastically from run-to-run, but one thing's certain: both will be small & relatively weak systems & produce narrow swaths of accumulating snow. There's no guarantee either will take the right track for snow in northern MD or southern PA, but the Sat night-Sun systems provides the better chance.

[Ruin]

48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last night actually got colder than guidance in a lot of locations. Longer term, there is probably some merit to your post. 

True. But I've seen so many times where temperatures at night get colder than forecast by 5 or 7°, and then the forecast I for the next day. You think would be lower because of that, but it ends up being higher than what they forecasted, makes no sense.

[Voyager]

Of course clouds have rolled in already which will halt any additional warming. Can't even get one sun-up to sundown sunny day...

[MAG5035]

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB said this this morning: 

I am keying on the WPO and the MJO. There is alot of warm air in the pattern day 11-20, but the WPO favors it getting cut down coming to the east. In fact opposite models, there should be an eastern trough week 3 and dont be surprised if the models head that way. Its a rare an unholy alliance, but I think the GEFS is the better model here and I am leaning on it

Somethings gotta give, Either the big telleconnections are wrong or the temperature pattern on the euro is overwarmed

The EPO plays pretty big factor in this as well, surprised he doesn’t mention it. After it takes a major dip the rest of this week behind tomorrow’s system all ensembles have it reversing to a pretty positive regime by later next week getting into Christmas week, setting up the period where we may moderate. Ensembles do show the very persistent -WPO regime in a pretty classic representation of such with major ridging centered on the Bering Sea throughout. This helps establish cold continental source region of the airmass into Canada. In combo with a -EPO that’s a good recipe for dumping cold over most of the eastern 2/3s of the lower 48.. which is what we see coming up the next 6-10 days. 

EPO in its negative phase promotes more ridging into the west coast of the US up into Canada and Alaska, and a stronger jet/lower heights into the western US in its positive phase. It has high correlation to anomolous temps cold (negative) and warm (positive) in our neck of the woods. A split in the teleconnections with a -WPO/+EPO makes for a bit less certainty. If teleconnection forecasts are right with the switch to a solid +EPO we’ll have a good bit of Pac modified air injected into the pattern but also still plenty of cold in Canada. Another factor to pair with +EPO here is AO/NAO also being forecast to be positive, which implies lower heights nearer to the pole and a contraction of cold air press into the CONUS. So there is a pretty solid case for moderation here because while there is plenty of cold available in Canada this combo probably sets up a high zonal flow across the US. I don’t necessarily see us torching but I see it more as a detriment in terms of storm track (low track running north of PA) since we have had a northern branch dominated regime and next to no southern stream influence so far in the early going. It might still roughly reflect a P8 MJO regime in the temp department, but that alone doesn’t put the white gold on the ground. 

So we’ll see how that evolves, in the meantime we will continue to be cold for the next week or so with the opportunity for at least another light snow event or two, with the Saturday night/Sun wave showing the best promise. There won’t be much moisture associated but that particular wave will have pretty cold air set in place, and a couple of tenths of QPF could easily turn into a 2-5” type event.