The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[bncho]

0z NAM wants to have friends as well. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Nam and hrrr start time a lot earlier than other models? Thought this was going to be a Friday late afternoon deal.


.

 Yeah nam has it in central va by 12 z!!  Which is like 7 am lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

0z NAM wants to have friends as well. 

Hoodbridge jack

[rjvanals]

3k NAM has dry air eat up all our snow 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 3K NAM

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

3k NAM has dry air eat up all our snow 

3k was still a huge jump north and expansion of the precip field 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

3k was still a huge jump north and expansion of the precip field 

WB 0Z 3K compared to 18Z.

[TSSN+]

Keep crawling its way it’s run till Friday 

[IronTy]

Nice to see those 2" lollies show up on the 12K.  

[baltosquid]

ICON looks maybe slightly better very early on. Confluence maybe a bit better for us and the energy is slightly more consolidated.

[baltosquid]

Yeah it's gonna be better, maybe a fair bit.

[Solution Man]

Buy in from Icon

[Solution Man]

On to the GFS 

[baltosquid]

Still just too dry as you go further north. Beefier precip to start the event fizzles in MD. But that can hopefully continue to trend better.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Still just too dry as you go further north. Beefier precip to start the event fizzles in MD. But that can hopefully continue to trend better.

Airmass is bone dry leading in.

[nj2va]

That’s a good bump north in the 0.1” QPF line on ICON from 18z.  Looks like it went from EZF to north of DC on 00z.

[baltosquid]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Airmass is bone dry leading in.

Yeah only hope is our wave just does it on its own, nothing to work with ahead of it.

[baltosquid]

RGEM is worse. Shame, first letdown of the 18z-00z revival campaign

[nj2va]

Latest LWX probabilities as of 9:15p has DC with a 84% chance of 0.1”+, 64% 1”+, 50% 2”+. Solid chances for DC and I’m ready to see my Christmas lights in snow. 

[Interstate]

Without something to make it go negative us northern folk are screwed

[bncho]

GFS nearly identical to 18z

[winter_warlock]

A definite shift north on Icon compared to 18z. 

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS nearly identical to 18z

Yup. Ur right. Looks like GFS is literally identical to 18z... At least it didn't go south lol

[Ji]

Yup. Ur right. Looks like GFS is literally identical to 18z... At least it didn't go south lol

Gfs is drier though

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

Gfs is drier though

Yes it is 

[T. August]

10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Yup. Ur right. Looks like GFS is literally identical to 18z... At least it didn't go south lol

The consistency is insane. Precip identical to nearly the hundredth lol.

[SnowenOutThere]

FWIW the RAP is pretty juiced

[baltosquid]

Canadian is also very similar to 12z. Maybe a hair drier.

[WesternFringe]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

FWIW the RAP is pretty juiced

Model trends seem good for increased amounts in central and western VA and the precip shield extending up to the metros.