The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[87storms]

47 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Yes! No, maybe, not!  Depends on the angle of the cold!  I just summed up the last day of this thread….your welcome.

That was me during what turned out to be yesterday’s rain storm.

[rjvanals]

EPS are a slight step back compared to 12z both in terms of total precip and chances for 1” 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

He’s young.

 

I’ve recently retired HS math teacher and maybe it’s time to take some met classes. I’m impressed with how much@SnowenOutThere has learned in his short time studying meteorology. Frankly, it’s inspiring.

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

I don’t know why, but I struggled with Chem. Fortunately so did everyone else in my class of 150 at UMD so I was at least in the median. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

A few  more ticks north and much of the area will be in legit 1-2" range!

 

[CAPE]

Euro or bust. 

 

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

Didn’t have to take that in undergrad, but I did scrape by taking 3 semesters of physics. Those were not ones you want to fall behind on.

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I don’t know why, but I struggled with Chem. Fortunately so did everyone else in my class of 150 at UMD so I was at least in the median. 

UMD math grad here…some of those early courses were straight up weed out classes. I think I spent 20 hrs a week in cmsc106 lol. Kinda wish I kept all my textbooks to check out from time to time. Number theory was cool.

[Rvarookie]

Short pump got y’all worked up in here 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro or bust. 

 

Seems like with the 18z runs we finally have some consensus, it’s just consensus on dusting-1” for the majority of us instead of the 1-3” we were hoping for. That shortwave is trending stronger so maybe we can juice this up some more. Or rely on 20:1 ratios??

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Yes, much of the east coast was wrecked.

10 feet of sand on the main north south road 

[mappy]

Not reading 8 pages. WBAL has me getting a dusting 

[GATECH]

Seems we have seen this movie many times over the last few years with these weak systems.  They seem to trend a bit north as we get closer.  There isn’t a ton of upside, it’s not gonna magically juice up, best case is areas in the skunk zone get a coating and that 1-2 inch expands a bit.  Will be interesting to see if this scenario plays out again this time.  Maybe the models have been having trouble resolving the cold and dry air to the north at range, maybe a data sampling thing…maybe aliens.  

[Ji]

55 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

EPS are a slight step back compared to 12z both in terms of total precip and chances for 1” 

thats not good bug it was terrible at 12z to begin with

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

He’s young.

 

I’ve recently retired HS math teacher and maybe it’s time to take some met classes. I’m impressed with how much@SnowenOutThere has learned in his short time studying meteorology. Frankly, it’s inspiring.

Yeah. I rag on them but it makes them better. Bulling works

[stormtracker]

53 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not reading 8 pages. WBAL has me getting a dusting 

Probably the final outcome. I just wanna see flakes, other than the ones here. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

Short pump got y’all worked up in here 

Yall are set.  Pipe down 

[bncho]

0z HRRR i believe has a better precip shield and is more north at hour 27 but i'm not @SnowenOutThere

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Thank you! Honestly, it’s just dense concepts but once you understand them they connect pretty well to being applied. Unfortunately meteorology isnt the only class im in so imma need some prayers while i take my chem test in the next hour (which all of my posts over the past 3 days have been a form of procrastination for)

Lowk aced that test now all that’s left to do is reel in this storm 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’ve recently retired HS math teacher

I'm taking calc 2 next semester so I may be pinging you quite often for help (though seriously if you tutor people I'd be interested depending on how my first exam goes) 

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Didn’t have to take that in undergrad, but I did scrape by taking 3 semesters of physics. Those were not ones you want to fall behind on.

Physics will be next year for me and I cannot say I'm looking forward to it. 

[bncho]

HRRR is rapid. Snow moves in at 3 AM in DC

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z HRRR i believe has a better precip shield and is more north at hour 27 but i'm not @SnowenOutThere

H5 looks better too with a stronger shortwave out West and less confluence allowing that push northward with the precip. Don't know if it'll actually translate to a huge change but encouraging regardless

[SnowenOutThere]

To illustrate the 0z run has the higher heights in front (notice how there is less confluence in Maine compared to 18z) which helps the storm amplify. Secondly, the shortwave itself is a bit stronger and less stretched out as the NS "kicker" is further south which almost seems to help spike development in our shortwave (while having the benefit of kicking it east slower)

0z

18z

[bncho]

HRRR is about 25-50 miles more north with slightly heavier precip.

[bncho]

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

We always get rug pull 50 mile shifts the last 24 hours so why not a reverse rug pull?

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

More north!  Baby steps!!

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

Is this the right map? 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We always get rug pull 50 mile shifts the last 24 hours so why not a reverse rug pull?

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

[mitchnick]

Hrrr support from the Srefs