The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know why, but I’m feeling really invested in this one lol. We don’t get many chances for cold powder daytime snows, let alone in December. I want something Friday!

 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I'm done tracking sliders. They don't make it here and I'm beyond over it, smh

two VERY different posts 

[87storms]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t know why, but I’m feeling really invested in this one lol. We don’t get many chances for cold powder daytime snows, let alone in December. I want something Friday!

I want to be invested, but that hp is a force. Are we relying on some lead frontrunning precip etc for this one? I feel like this has ots potential. I’m actually not even sure how precip is making it as far north as depicted given the setup. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

 

two VERY different posts 

Well yeah he's further south than I am, lol See it seems climo has (hopefully temporarily) shifted and anything coming from the south that's not a full-on coastal just hits a wall from Baltimore north in the winter time. All started Dec 2018 and hasn't been right since.

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

For me that is incorrect, I went from 1.5 inches to .2.  Or I went from a dusting to a flurry.  I hope someone in M.A. gets 2 inches. 

The fun part is knowing that it can still trend south.

We need an active subtropical jet in the absolute worst kinda way. When was the last 6”+ snowstorm in Frederick? Maybe 2019? I was still in Bethesda and we got rocked with that one.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I want to be invested, but that hp is a force. Are we relying on some lead frontrunning precip etc for this one? I feel like this has ots potential. I’m actually not even sure how precip is making it as far north as depicted given the setup. 

That's the other thing...there seems to be no middle ground with these HPs. Either they're too weak and scoots off, or they're too strong and south. I sure would like to know why. It's been like that the last 8 years.

[Weather Will]

Took a long walk today and for the first time in years in early December, I saw ponds starting to freeze over along the shallow sections.  It reminded me that we are in an unusually cool stretch since Thanksgiving.  Hopefully, this pattern will repeat in January and we will get a flush hit for everyone.

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's the other thing...there seems to be no middle ground with these HPs. Either they're too weak and scoots off, or they're too strong and south. I sure would like to know why. It's been like that the last 8 years.

Can’t get anything to go negative tilt when we need it to. Prob related to a lack of blocking which im assuming is at least partially due to an overactive northern stream. I need to do more research on indices…others here have way more knowledge on that.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

We need a hp to the north of us, not over top of us lol.

The last high ran well east too far and fast so don’t know why this would plunge  south. We don’t get many good high pressures centered on the MD line

[bncho]

12z EPS is a shift south 

[WEATHER53]

A considerably stronger and closer low would not harm us this time 

[baltosquid]

Just feels like a tick south, even minor, is a pretty bad sign when the thing ticking south is the only model that had really been fully in our corner on this one. I’m not expecting an inch personally. Half inch is what my gut says, and that is wavering. Hard to trust something this marginal to come through.

[stormy]

One great reality is that 850 temps. should not be an issue on Friday.

[IronTy]

Looks like a SoMD jackpot, just as I had foreseen.  Locking it in. 

[87storms]

31 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The last high ran well east too far and fast so don’t know why this would plunge  south. We don’t get many good high pressures centered on the MD line

Valid point. That would be our path to victory, I think. NC won’t Iike that, but this is a competitive sport and I only care about the dmv.

[Buddy1987]

3 hours ago, 87storms said:

This one is for the southern crew. I’d be hyped if I was in Central Va.

Checking in and SUPER cautiously optimistic. 

[Solution Man]

15-1 powder with this one, .1 qpf I will take. Yes please

[bncho]

NWS bumped up totals from this morning.

[WEATHER53]

Is there another large area of high  pressure off the northeast coast preventing this cold highs  eastward movement and plunging it almost due south.?  Or a 50/50 type low too close to coast and blocking any eastward progression? 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Is there another large area of high  pressure off the northeast coast preventing this cold highs  eastward movement and plunging it almost due south.?  Or a 50/50 type low too close to coast and blocking any eastward progression? 

I'd certainly like to know this as well--and why we've seen more of this kind of progression in recent years. Is there something going on with the pattern itself?

[bncho]

HRRR

[baltosquid]

Good move by the HRRR but still south of the euro. Also at long range for that model. However, good changes were visible h5 early on

[SnowenOutThere]

First stab at a snowfall map (made for my instagram but might as well post it here). Since it's made for public consumption I always hedge my bets a bit so its a bit more conservative than my true thinking. 

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

HRRR

Slanted at that angle is it going to go ese because it’s pointing ene 

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd certainly like to know this as well--and why we've seen more of this kind of progression in recent years. Is there something going on with the pattern itself?

Well we rarely get Miller As anymore.  We don’t have many clipper underneath  of us.  The waa overrunning of a Miller B is less impactful

Those are the three changes I note from 20+ years ago and the question is Why!?. 

[Scraff]

How we doing? Euro ok? Been busy drinking beer on the job. Because it’s my job!  I know everyone throwing me a pity party for my oh so rough life. 

[bncho]

Just now, Scraff said:

How we doing? Euro ok? Been busy drinking beer on the job. Because it’s my job!  I know everyone throwing me a pity party for my oh so rough life. 

euro SE at 12z

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Well we rarely get Miller As anymore.  We don’t have many clipper underneath  of us.  The waa overrunning of a Miller B is less impactful

Those are the three changes I note from 20+ years ago and the question is Why!?. 

We’ve been in a Nina ish pacific base state for a long time. That isn’t good for gulf miller a type systems. 

[WxUSAF]

18z NBM is north relative to a lot of what we’re looking at it seems 

 

[dailylurker]

Where's JI? I came for some doom scrolling. I saw PSU commented so I got excited. Nothing juicy yet. Still early season lol

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’ve been in a Nina ish pacific base state for a long time. That isn’t good for gulf miller a type systems. 

And what about all the southern sliders fails with HPs being too strong? How much of that is bad luck/timing with an active NS?