The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[Chris78]

Canadian looks better for Friday

[Ephesians2]

CMC noticeably north again. Northern edge of the precip shield in Central VA vs NC last run

[SnowenOutThere]

Remember when this thread was made to separate out the two threats. Pepperidge farm remembers 

[stormtracker]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Remember when this thread was made to separate out the two threats. Pepperidge farm remembers 

Shit I've been posting in the wrong fucking thread.   I'm going to be after I move my posts.  My bad

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Shit I've been posting in the wrong fucking thread.   I'm going to be after I move my posts.  My bad

Lmao it's more fun when its all mixed together anyways

[bncho]

CMC actually is a lot more north. gets snow all the way up to baltimore.

[WesternFringe]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Remember when this thread was made to separate out the two threats. Pepperidge farm remembers 

I thought all that play by play was for Friday 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, bncho said:

CMC actually is a lot more north. gets snow all the way up to baltimore i believe

I think this would be a pretty good ending considering what we've got to work with

[mitchnick]

Nah. Gem completely crushes round 2. That trough in Canada is a monster as modeled. Unless things change, fugetaboutit.

[SnowenOutThere]

Minus the Nams the 0z cycle has pretty much been exclusively positive for Friday. Lets hope the Euro does its job and holds

[Ephesians2]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nah. Gem completely crushes round 2. That trough in Canada is a monster as modeled. Unless things change, fugetaboutit.

It seems to have a stronger storm and less positively tilted trough, but also trended way south with the confluence over eastern Canada/New England

[bncho]

0z GEFS is improved over 18z and 12z. It's a lot closer to the 18z EPS.

[bncho]

I'm not @SnowenOutThere but the Euro looks improved even over 12z as of hr 54

[bncho]

0z Euro is very good right now

[stormtracker]

Yeah, Euro is nice for Friday.  Looks like a 1-2 inch type deal on SV

[bncho]

we will make friends with the 0z Euro

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

we will make friends with the 0z Euro

Sold 

[Albedoman]

 

Posted this on 11/23

Where the hell these long range so called weather gurus  snow weenies seeing snow for our area on facebook and other media sources and who are just trying to make a few advertising bucks playing up the polar vortex bs  but the current models are sure are NOT portraying anything like this right now for our area..  Every single snow chance has now dwindle to rain/mix event  and also an insignificant rain event at best for our area as the cold dry air is winning the battle.

The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck.  If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast.  The lows  south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time  as it  appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too.  The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us  this year. This pattern is slowly setting up for a lot nuisance mix storm events snow/sleet to rain for our area if this keeps up. A pure snow event will be hard to come by in the next few weeks

[bncho]

0z EPS is better than 18z EPS—it's probably the most aggressive it's been for this system.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Euro is nice for Friday.  Looks like a 1-2 inch type deal on SV

We take 

[Weather Will]

Well maybe I will have to eat a shoe with this storm....at least for southern zones.  Nice bump north on WB 6Z 12K NAM compared to 0Z. Trend or blip TBD.

[mitchnick]

6z Rgem came north and brings 1" up to DCA & BWI. Nothing yet for me (wipe that smile off your face!)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Decent model agreement of a low amplitude shortwave moving
across the southern Mid-Atlantic Friday as high pressure
retreats offshore. Uncertainties arise in how far north the
precipitation will make it. Almost all ensemble and
deterministic guidance has enough cold air in place to favor all
snow in our FA should moisture make it this far north. There are
a few outliers that have rain across the far S of the FA. FWIW,
snow and ice has trended up slightly over the past couple of
runs. While amounts are forecast to generally be light (an inch
or two, perhaps three should a higher end solution verify), the
northward shift is notable. Looking at clusters featuring the
greatest variance (EOF) regarding amplitude does suggest
additional northward expansion is possible. Just something to
keep in mind.

[mitchnick]

6z Euro

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro

2 days out and there’s this much difference between gfs and euro. Ugh can it ever just be some agreement. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro

Sold!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro

Big broad area of accumulating snow! Cold temps!  Let’s go!! 

[Ji]

Sold!

Snow contest for iad might be over!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’ll be cool to get some snow in minimal sun angle season.  None will be wasted. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’ll be cool to get some snow in minimal sun angle season.  None will be wasted. 

You people are weirdos.