Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

22 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I’ll try not to be (too) annoying tonight. Looks like the band is stopping its westward momentum and trying to come back east. Would be huge if true.

that's a rip-er.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Major bust in SE MI today. We had a 50% chance of snow, finally updated to a winter weather advisory late afternoon. Will probably end up with 3-5" in the metro area. Models did terrible with this.

Yeah. It’s rare to see a forecast bust that bad these days. Although my yard only had about an inch from this system, it was still a surprise. I wasn’t expecting much snow this morning and next thing I knew it was snowing very hard around 8am. I looked at the radar and there was snow developing all over the SE quarter of the state and I thought then that the forecast could be a bust. 

[sbnwx85]

18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

that's a rip-er.

Brother it is rippin. 5” so far and 2” more for every hour this bad boy hangs outz

[TheRegionRat]

Snowed really hard at work in Hammond. Started as a mix, dropped some sleet, then snow. Unsalted areas remain icy. The further south you went, the more snow. At home, I have less than inch. The US 30 corridor has 3 inches or so. While the squall moved through visibility was awful. It was tough going from around 8AM through 9:30 or so. 

[sbnwx85]

Up to 6” and still ripping. Probably 2-3” per hour rates.

[Chambana]

2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Up to 6” and still ripping. Probably 2-3” per hour rates.

Judging from radar you are in the goods right now. Congrats dude, keep us all updated. That band looks super intense.

[Powerball]

6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Up to 6” and still ripping. Probably 2-3” per hour rates.

 

Are you on the east or west side of South Bend?

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Major bust in SE MI today. We had a 50% chance of snow, finally updated to a winter weather advisory late afternoon. Will probably end up with 3-5" in the metro area. Models did terrible with this.

The models hinted at this on Sunday and then completely backed off, and never caught back up until the snow was almost over. Maddening as an operational met, splendid as a snow lover. My best explanation is that models were not properly initializing with the vort max that dove in from the Arctic, as everything associated with that (starting with the overperforming squalls in the Chicago area this morning) has over performed with this system. 

[sbnwx85]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

 

Are you on the east or west side of South Bend?

South side. Good spot rn

[A-L-E-K]

In the stack zone^

[sbnwx85]

Up to 10”. Four inches in the last hour. Top tier stuff. Still ripping.

[KeenerWx]

7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Up to 10”. Four inches in the last hour. Top tier stuff. Still ripping.

Damn, very nice!

[sbnwx85]

In for the long haul?

UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
Lake effect band continues to organize further, remaining generally in place from Benton Harbor to South Bend to Bourbon then curving to Wabash. Minor fluctuations in its position are occurring with a slight eastward shift over the past 20 to 30 minutes. Shouldn`t deviate too much from this area for at least the next couple of hours or more as sfc obs show convergence between Plymouth and Goshen. Reports slowly trickling in with roughly 2 to 3 inches in SW Kosciusko county, 6 inches and counting in South Bend. Headlines still looking good for now, although an expansion of the advisory may be needed into Miami and Wabash counties.
Regarding amounts, will be taking a close look at them with a likihood of shifting the heavier axis slightly east through 6Z. Upstream obs show the flow isn`t in a hurry to shift until influence of the low lessens.

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Yeah. It’s rare to see a forecast bust that bad these days. Although my yard only had about an inch from this system, it was still a surprise. I wasn’t expecting much snow this morning and next thing I knew it was snowing very hard around 8am. I looked at the radar and there was snow developing all over the SE quarter of the state and I thought then that the forecast could be a bust. 

 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Major bust in SE MI today. We had a 50% chance of snow, finally updated to a winter weather advisory late afternoon. Will probably end up with 3-5" in the metro area. Models did terrible with this.

Definitely around 4” here in Royal Oak, I was only expecting this to be around an inch. Nice bust in the opposite direction.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This is the best sounding I have seen for SBN since...the internet age started?

Unidirectional NNW winds from the ground to heaven, virtually no inversion, and insane omega in the DGZ.  Wow.

[sbnwx85]

Band has swung to my east. Sitting at 11” with light snow. The dogs love it.

[Chicago Storm]

Snowfall totals associated with the overperforming snow squall/snow showers from this morning/afternoon...

Final snowfall totals
1.4" - ORD
T - RFD

…2025/26 Season Snowfall...
21.5" - ORD
19.4" - RFD

[sbnwx85]

Shoveled the driveway during the lull before round 2 moves in. The band seems narrower. We’ll see what damage it does before it sweeps off tothe west.

 

[Harry Perry]

10 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Shoveled the driveway during the lull before round 2 moves in. The band seems narrower. We’ll see what damage it does before it sweeps off tothe west.

 

Keep the updates coming. Very impressive. 

[Harry Perry]

Interestingly enough, there are many of these lake effect streamers even over here that are stacking up. About 1.5” here and still coming down pretty good with the radar only showing this.