Panic Room 25-26

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Yeah. HGR to Frederick has been basically north Georgia for years. In the 90's that area was the Tug Hill of MD. I knew the lowlands wouldn't have winter this season because the past two winters had a short period of winter. My plan was to spend a lot of time this season hiking in the snow in the Catoctins. I've had more snow here near Annapolis then them this season. 

I'm in Smithsburg just on the west side of the Catoctins. It's really hard to beleive how bad it's been since the start of the 21-22 season.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I'm in Smithsburg just on the west side of the Catoctins. It's really hard to beleive how bad it's been since the start of the 21-22 season.

It's mind blowing honestly. You'd think just being higher elevation would mean at least some snow. What happened to high elevation snows on out mountains? That's been nonexistent forever. 

[rjvanals]

On 1/10/2026 at 11:43 AM, rjvanals said:

We all know the GFS “storm” is wrong and this place will be hopping later this week

I'm at the grocery store stocking up for tomorrow's GFS blizzard 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

It’s getting pretty tiresome, put me on reaper watch.  I’m a few fizzled threats away from talking about cherry blossoms. 

[NorthArlington101]

Halfway to a January shutout!

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Halfway to a January shutout!

I’ve basically given up. Think winter has shown its flavor. It’s cold, it’s dry, it’s not a shutout pattern “atmospherically” but it’s not for us on the ground. Bet we find one more 1-3” event and see this as a could’ve been winter. 

[rjvanals]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Halfway to a January shutout!

not quite a shutout as we got a trace or .1 early morning on New Years Day but this month has been an epic disaster considering the hype and the phantom GFS blizzards torturing us each time 

[DanTheMan]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve basically given up. Think winter has shown its flavor. It’s cold, it’s dry, it’s not a shutout pattern “atmospherically” but it’s not for us on the ground. Bet we find one more 1-3” event and see this as a could’ve been winter. 

Kind of in the same boat. Will give it another week or two but then might give into despair. Just found out I will be going overseas for work next month so my window has been truncated. Enjoy your chase this weekend! My November chase to Davis/Blackwater Falls has numbed the local pain a lot! 

[WeatherGeek2025]

had to say hello, i'm panicking! these models suck. And Ai GFS is supposed to replace regular gfs i don't know about that. Can we get some snow wtf

[NorthArlington101]

this is worse than it being 80 and raining all winter

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve basically given up. Think winter has shown its flavor. It’s cold, it’s dry, it’s not a shutout pattern “atmospherically” but it’s not for us on the ground. Bet we find one more 1-3” event and see this as a could’ve been winter. 

I'm not quite to where you are yet but I have definitely transitioned from an optimistic outlook on our storms to a pessimistic view. I think the real test of can we get a good rest of winter is does the current 25-28th window pans out. Honestly, we just need it to show a real major storm that gives us precip and develops well, if it ends up being a bit too warm then I think we'll be okay if the pattern persists. Yet, if instead we get some fail to develop nonsense then it is time to probably drop any high or medium-high expectations. Just tired of tracking all these low chance setups that have obvious flaws which make getting snow (or even a storm) unlikely. I enjoyed the December storms because they were just that: a simple snowstorm which even at range wasn't some phase/negative tilt longshot. TLDR: Please for the love of god just have moisture transport into cold air.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Officially to the half-way point of winter with 1" of snow.  On pace for a whopping 2" season, the 10th consecutive below average winter, and 10 years without a 6" storm.

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Officially to the half-way point of winter with 1" of snow.  On pace for a whopping 2" season, the 10th consecutive below average winter, and 10 years without a 6" storm.

Back in the 90's I thought that area was snow central. 200+ a season lol. Same with Carroll County. Carroll County always jacked while my county would be pouring rain. You know "east of the cities" was a hell scape. That's when we use to get ocean storms. The past 10 years it's been luck over elevation. I'm sure here soon the worm will turn and I'll get driving rain while you brag about how it's the best  snowstorm in years.

[wxdude64]

9 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Halfway to a January shutout!

 

8 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve basically given up. Think winter has shown its flavor. It’s cold, it’s dry, it’s not a shutout pattern “atmospherically” but it’s not for us on the ground. Bet we find one more 1-3” event and see this as a could’ve been winter. 

 

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm not quite to where you are yet but I have definitely transitioned from an optimistic outlook on our storms to a pessimistic view. I think the real test of can we get a good rest of winter is does the current 25-28th window pans out. Honestly, we just need it to show a real major storm that gives us precip and develops well, if it ends up being a bit too warm then I think we'll be okay if the pattern persists. Yet, if instead we get some fail to develop nonsense then it is time to probably drop any high or medium-high expectations. Just tired of tracking all these low chance setups that have obvious flaws which make getting snow (or even a storm) unlikely. I enjoyed the December storms because they were just that: a simple snowstorm which even at range wasn't some phase/negative tilt longshot. TLDR: Please for the love of god just have moisture transport into cold air.

I think a lot of all the angst comes down to one thing. Expectations. We watch the pattern, it is good. Something shows up 2 weeks out, awesome. Next run shows 15-20 inches in spots and many getting 7-12, people start buying in. It closes to 10 days, and although one (or even two) models show SOMETHING, it isn't the 'big one' and those expectations start to slid. Then *poof* one model has a snizzlefest, majority go OTS and one is a cutter, chaos. A minor model brings something back at day 4, then a major shows promise, we buy in again. Day two we have cold/dry air as there isn't even a storm anymore. I think the best thing (and what I have decided to do) is watch but don't buy in until day 4 at max, and then only if half the models have SOMETHING showing that appears to have a bit of consistency. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Back in the 90's I thought that area was snow central. 200+ a season lol. Same with Carroll County. Carroll County always jacked while my county would be pouring rain. You know "east of the cities" was a hell scape. That's when we use to get ocean storms. The past 10 years it's been luck over elevation. I'm sure here soon the worm will turn and I'll get driving rain while you brag about how it's the best  snowstorm in years.

This area was never great for snow, but it used to be a lot better and it damn sure was better than the metros.   Not the last 20 years.  And now we can't even beat the coastal plain.

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

 

 

I think a lot of all the angst comes down to one thing. Expectations. We watch the pattern, it is good. Something shows up 2 weeks out, awesome. Next run shows 15-20 inches in spots and many getting 7-12, people start buying in. It closes to 10 days, and although one (or even two) models show SOMETHING, it isn't the 'big one' and those expectations start to slid. Then *poof* one model has a snizzlefest, majority go OTS and one is a cutter, chaos. A minor model brings something back at day 4, then a major shows promise, we buy in again. Day two we have cold/dry air as there isn't even a storm anymore. I think the best thing (and what I have decided to do) is watch but don't buy in until day 4 at max, and then only if half the models have SOMETHING showing that appears to have a bit of consistency. 

The watching and getting emotionally invested (to a point) is fun for me though. Just wish we could bat 30-50% instead of 10%.