The Pumpkin Pie Event Dec.1-2, 2025

[Baum]

Let’s keep it rolling. Why not.
Per Lot:

EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL RESULT IN A   PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER THE ENTIRE   AREA, REACHING THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THE   CHICAGO METRO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST   GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING QPF GENERALLY IN THE   0.15-0.20 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH   IN THE BROADER ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE SOUTH OF I-80. MEANWHILE, A 3KM   DEEP DGZ INTERSECTING WITH MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT WOULD   SUPPORT A HIGHER RATIO SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO EVEN   20:1. PUTTING THIS TOGETHER, A WIDESPREAD FLUFFY SNOW EVENT OF   1-3" NORTH OF I-80 AND 2-4" SOUTH OF I-80 APPEARS LIKELY. HAVE   SOME CONCERNS THAT THE 600 HPA F-GEN NOTED ABOVE WILL FOCUS A   NARROW (COUNTY-WIDE) WSW TO ENE ORIENTED BAND OF HIGHER QPF AND   HIGHER SLR (>20:1) SOUTHEAST OF I-55 IN THE EVENING. IN THIS   CASE, IT IS FEASIBLE THAT A NARROW 4-6" BAND OF SNOW WILL BE   REALIZED. FINALLY, WHILE NOT EXPECTED (10% CHANCE), SYNOPTIC   ENHANCEMENT OF A DEVELOPING MESO-LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN   TONIGHT COULD BACK CLOSE TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE AS THE LOW-LEVEL   SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS SSE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE   NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE   IMMEDIATE SHORE FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO THE IL/WI LINE.  

[ChiTownSnow]

Here's to hoping that lake helps us this time

[sbnwx85]

Looks like a solid 2-4” out this way.

[Chambana]

I’ll take a 1-4” snowpack refresher tomorrow night. This glacier is gonna be around for a hot minute. 

[Spartman]

This thread should actually be extended to December 2nd (Tuesday) since it would last through at least that said morning.

Not much on the 12z Euro:

A bit juicy on the 00z NAM:

So-so on the 18z GFS:

[KeenerWx]

Still looking good locally for 2-4”. Hopefully someone cashes in on some fgen magic.
 

These smaller events are fun in their own way. 

[Jackstraw]

2 hours ago, KeenerWx said:

Still looking good locally for 2-4”. Hopefully someone cashes in on some fgen magic.
 

These smaller events are fun in their own way. 

These are the kind that can jump out and "scare" someone with an unexpected 6 inches. Certainly will give the rest of us a chance to pack match the last systems winners lol. Load me up with chips, I'm calling 4 for here! 

[michsnowfreak]

Im hoping for 2" of powder to cover up the 2" frozen crust. Will work wonders. Not sure how good ratios will be, but with temps in the mid 20s at least I know it won't be wet cement again.

Anywhere that was plowed is literally like a boulder that could kill now. 

[cyclone77]

Being on the northern portion of the system you kind of worry this could bump a bit south and be just a dog turd duster, but we seem to be holding in the 0.12-0.17 range for precip.  1-2" refresher looking pretty likely here.

[A-L-E-K]

couple inches of evening mood dust hits better when it's falling onto a snowpack

[IWXwx]

With ratios looking to be up to 20:1, my call is 4.5" here.

[SchaumburgStormer]

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Being on the northern portion of the system you kind of worry this could bump a bit south and be just a dog turd duster, but we seem to be holding in the 0.12-0.17 range for precip.  1-2" refresher looking pretty likely here.

HRRR wants to do exactly that, and make this an I70 special 

[DocATL]

Feel like more of a nowcast event with higher ratios. Here for the mood flakes.


.

[Frog Town]

Hi-Res models coming in a little juiced/phased...  

Looks like things may bump north a bit with a more neutral trough.  We shall see! 

[jlauderdal]

2 over achievers in a row, not a bad start to the season.

[A-L-E-K]

duster looks on track

[madwx]

getting some flurries here already.  that type of event where the slightest pertubation to the atmosphere produces snow

[Baum]

Mood dust has commenced.

[Chicago Storm]

Pixie fest has begun here at ORD, pouring.

[migratingwx]

Ceilings lowered, flurries have commenced here as well.

[michaelmantis]

I'm all good with a refresher snow once a week of 2-3 inches for the remainder of the winter.

Pixie dust got a bit stronger in the last 15 minutes. Widespread 1-3 in N IL will hide some of the dirty snow and leaves.

[ChiTownSnow]

Like a salt shaker outside 

[migratingwx]

1 hour ago, migratingwx said:

Ceilings lowered, flurries have commenced here as well.

Picking up pretty decently out now. 

[Jackstraw]

Solid SN here with vis down to 1/2 mile. Nice weenie band approaching 

[cyclone77]

8 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

HRRR wants to do exactly that, and make this an I70 special 

Yeah unfortunately this one turned into a dog turd duster.  Picked up perhaps a half inch of pixie dust.  Nice to have daytime snowfall again though.

[sbnwx85]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/14TwtUcsdyu/

An interestingly angled lake-effect event happening in Muskegon tonight.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah unfortunately this one turned into a dog turd duster.  Picked up perhaps a half inch of pixie dust.  Nice to have daytime snowfall again though.

Yup. Fail here. Thread starter fired.

[DocATL]

No fail in Naperville, puking powder, road conditions going south.

[Jackstraw]

Had SN to +SN of the Hallmark variety for about 3 hours. Currently -SN with 2.5 inches of new powder so far. Gonna be weenie banding it until about 9 or 10 then we'll see if that batch in Central IL can ride through here. Thats the fgen band that could bring another 2 to 4 here. South Central IN cashing in too from plow cameras. Just like this past weekend what fails for some is cash for others 

[Chicago Storm]

Best snowfall rates/intensity of the event currently, down to 3/4SM here at ORD.