December 2025 General Discussion

[mnchaserguy]

Wasn’t expecting much this evening but that narrow band delivered. Picked up a quick inch at my house. No idea what to expect tomorrow. The hi-res models are way north, but none of them  handled what happened today well.  The EC-AIFS has been steadfast on nailing the metro for days and the other globals caved that way. It’s done well in this pattern so there’s that to consider too. 

I’m inclined to believe the GFS and euro over the cams. Seems like they’ve been better this winter. Could be a solid storm for us if the rain/snow line sets up just south of the metro.


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[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, mnchaserguy said:

Also,
a pretty unique hazards map for us.


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That Civil Danger WARNING  - is that due to your governor?

[RogueWaves]

13 hours ago, nvck said:

1 here right now, still looking for our 1st below 0 low. got about 15 minutes to get it, until the sun is really up.

-3 at home, -17 at work in Grayling with co-worker reporting he had -20F along the lowlands eastward. 

[mnchaserguy]

That Civil Danger WARNING  - is that due to your governor?

No.


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[Mogget]

Heh.  We’ve developed a WWA for tonight’s soiree.  Could do without the word “glaze” in it, though.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1.2” yesterday at MSP

Messy day incoming for the metro. Lots of freezing drizzle, we probably pop above freezing for a few hours and miss the heavy snows by 30 miles or so. 

[Brian D]

Reported 3.5" of powdery snow this morning. Looks like 2-5" around the area. No reports yet from the Grand Marais area. They may have gotten a bit more. UPDATE: looks like the tip of the Arrowhead only got 2-3"

Next one starts later today  

[Brian D]

Snow then bitter wx follows this weekend. Haven't had a Dec like this in ....... 10 yrs or so just off the top of my head. 

[sbnwx85]

Picked up 0.2” of snow overnight. Nice turd duster before the rain moves in tonight. 

[Brian D]

Got curious as to when the last time we saw a very cold start to Dec for the sub as whole. Looks like 2010 is the closest.

[mnchaserguy]

12z medium range models and cams have caved to the Euro and GFS. Looks like it could be a solid storm for the northern two thirds of the MSP metro.


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[nvck]

13 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

-3 at home, -17 at work in Grayling with co-worker reporting he had -20F along the lowlands eastward. 

crazy what a difference a few dozen miles makes

[cyclone77]

It's 46 degrees warmer right now than it was two nights ago at this time.  41 degrees right now vs -5 Sunday evening.

[A-L-E-K]

Melt was p aggressive and Xmas thaw looks locked and loaded.

January will be rocking 

[Chambana]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Melt was p aggressive and Xmas thaw looks locked and loaded.

January will be rocking 

Same. Parking lot puddles and bare ground rearing its head again. Second half of December torch. December 2013 played out kind of similar too. Fingers crossed January and February are epic.

[kevlon62]

Fields looking about cooked but we will see what daylight brings.

Biggest tragedy, these 24-hour cheap shots.

Mama Said
https://youtu.be/yMGWQKn9Ers?si=de4RPur-3z1MyG5f

[A-L-E-K]

p rough look 

gonna end up a seriously two-faced month

[cyclone77]

Yeah the snowpack took a surprisingly big hit.  

Nice squalls moving in from the north.  Ready 2 squall.

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

p rough look 

I’ll take a quiet period at Christmas.Though I’d to cash in the last of the clipper train Pattern reload.

[A-L-E-K]

we're due for our annual mid winter severe event

[Frog Town]

Gunna suck pretty bad for all of our inner child hopes for a classic white Christmas hopes.  Praying things turn around Christmas week.  

[OrdIowPitMsp]

6am snow depth 10”

Season to date MSP - 15.3”

[A-L-E-K]

mostly bare grass here at the office near o'hare

am snow squalls more of the cold rain variety so far

need the late week events to reverse trends asap otherwise looks like white xmas chances are p low imo

[SchaumburgStormer]

Ripping nicely with this band swinging through

[Chicago Storm]

mostly bare grass here at the office near o'hare
am snow squalls more of the cold rain variety so far
need the late week events to reverse trends asap otherwise looks like white xmas chances are p low imo

Squall potential faded away about a day ago, and the associated winds as well.

Very poor handling in the short term by guidance.

[sbnwx85]

Still have a snow depth of about 3”. Some light to moderate lake snow potential today and Sunday before the torch.

[Brian D]

On 12/9/2025 at 7:59 AM, Brian D said:

Snow then bitter wx follows this weekend. Haven't had a Dec like this in ....... 10 yrs or so just off the top of my head. 

Totally got robbed on this one. NADA! Even Duluth only got 1-3". Talk about a S trend. That's OK, still early in the season.

[Baum]

[beavis1729]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

mostly bare grass here at the office near o'hare

am snow squalls more of the cold rain variety so far

need the late week events to reverse trends asap otherwise looks like white xmas chances are p low imo

I'm going to trust that others are with me in this rant...but if not, then ignore or delete the post, and call me crazy/unhinged.

How do we get 15" of snow in a 7-day period, then it's down to bare patches a few days later with only 18 hours of above-freezing temps?  It's absolutely ridiculous, and wipes out any earlier thoughts on "a great start to winter".  If the snow doesn't stay on the ground, it's as though it never happened.

Even prior to the short thaw yesterday, the depth was down to 9" IMBY, which is a whole other issue...as the depth went down by 6" with sub-freezing temps.  Now it's down to 3" of slush.  I realize there can be some compaction and a bit of melting over time, and when you have 18 hours with temps 34-38, but the sun never came out...which normally would help.  It's not like it hit 50F with dews in the 40s. There should be 10" of depth now, not 3"...and it's even worse by ORD and the more urbanized areas.

Why is it so ******* difficult to preserve snow around here?  Do soil temps really make that much of a difference, combined with a half-day with dews over 32F?  How do you lose 15" of snow with one day above freezing, during the time of year when sun angle is the lowest? 

It's a like a million things need to go right to get snow in the first place, and then a million more things need to go right to keep it on the ground.  One tiny thing goes wrong, and it all vanishes. If yesterday's "storm" would have tracked 75 miles further south (which is just a chaotic blip in the grand scheme of things), none of this would be happening.  One tiny annoying random event should not destroy 2 weeks of a good pattern, but it does.  Same thing happened with GHD I in Feb. 2011.  22" of depth on 2/5/11, and it was essentially all gone 10 days later.  If that were March, no problem...but that shouldn't happen in early-mid Feb, well within the winter season on the calendar.

This looked like a guaranteed White Christmas a few days ago, now it's almost a guaranteed brown Christmas...just a complete 180 degree turnaround.

 

[A-L-E-K]

warmup has been well modeled and the snowpack was built on dusters

naso surprising to see it get nuked so fast, imo the real bummer is the good pattern ending with a whimper instead of a bang