E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, Joshb32689 said:

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2022438348405481832

I don’t know what the GRAF is but damn 

I’ve seen it used on WFMZ, but have no idea how accurate it is.

[Ralph Wiggum]

FV3 has a squall rolling thru in the early Saturday hours, maybe a quick coating in spots extreme se pa:

[Heisy]

I’ve seen it used on WFMZ, but have no idea how accurate it is.

Last time I saw it used was 2020 storm and it did well. Obviously we’re not getting 20” unless this is a jan25 2000 bust

This has been one of the more interesting storms I’ve tracked. The high end ensemble members kind of make me depressed because it just shows what a full phase could have done

[MGorse]

2 hours ago, Joshb32689 said:

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2022438348405481832

I don’t know what the GRAF is but damn 

The Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting (GRAF) model is a propriety, physics based, numerical weather prediction system developed by The Weather Company (an IBM Business) in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

[Ralph Wiggum]

12k NAM came way north for the late weekend system. Appears warmish at the start.

[Ralph Wiggum]

FV3 also way North. 

[anthonyweather]

Found the graf finally


.

[Newman]

GFS is a real solid hit. Are we really doing this? Lol

[Duca892]

This is insane GFS continues the trend 

[LVblizzard]

GFS just went full weenie. Over half a foot for most of us. What on earth is going on?

[JTA66]

Did we just get GFS’d??

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

GFS just went full weenie. Over half a foot for most of us. What on earth is going on?

Northern stream is better sampled

[Joshb32689]

Quite the trend from 1am - 7pm. South Jersey went from 0 to over a foot in some spots 

[Heisy]

One of the weirdest run ups to a storm in a long time

[Heisy]

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

[Duca892]

Does the GFS solution have supports?

[Newman]

The last 5 run trend of the GFS is wild, at some point do we see this stop trending? I still think this run is over the top and we see something more like the ICON or Euro, but it's been a long time since we've seen such significant shifts in guidance to produce a *favorable* outcome within 72 hours of an event 

[Newman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

I'd love to read Mount Holly's night shift AFD on this one

[Kevin Reilly]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

So ingredient #1 looks like a NW flow pretty evident with a low north of Quebec Canada drifting SSW.

#2 Vort NNE of Winnepeg getting forced SSE.

#3 low in north central New Mexico about to get the boot eastbound.

#4 blocking NW flow will force storm to cut eastbound to our south then wait for a northern stream phase near Norfolk Va.

You can clearly see the pieces on the water vapor map.

This will be interesting to see unfold. 

[LVblizzard]

I’m not sure I can remember a storm threat quite like this. It’s such an unusual setup, far from what we typically see. Just crazy how such a small change at H5 in the first 12-24 hours leads to huge differences only a day later.

[Kevin Reilly]

NBC 10 has spoken coating to an inch.  We will update the map in the morning. Sounds right. 

[Duca892]

Dimartino not buying it at all 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

The result is going to define the rest of the season. If we do get the 6-10 inch snow solution, I feel the winter might stay a little longer. If it ends up being rain or nothing, then I think the winter is winding down.

[mattinpa]

10 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Dimartino not buying it at all 

Interesting tonight but I’m also not buying it yet.

[Duca892]

EURO either gonna come in like a wet blanket or an absolute dream boat. Never thought we would have a storm within 48hrs to randomly track.

so glad I never said winter was over 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

EURO either gonna come in like a wet blanket or an absolute dream boat. Never thought we would have a storm within 48hrs to randomly track.

so glad I never said winter was over 

So glad my car went through the car wash too. 

[Duca892]

Looks pretty ok for a light 1-3in snowfall for the Lehigh Valley with 2-4in around Bucks/Phillg areas

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Looks pretty ok for a light 1-3in snowfall for the Lehigh Valley with 2-4in around Bucks/Phillg areas

Outside of the 12k nam the mesos have zero interest in this event. Thats a red flag that leans against a snow event imho. Not sure i trust the globals at this range.

[Duca892]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Outside of the 12k nam the mesos have zero interest in this event. Thats a red flag that leans against a snow event imho. Not sure i trust the globals at this range.

Why is there that amount of disparity amongst models in the year 2026 lol

[Mikeymac5306]

I think I have about 15-20 flakes that landed on my patio table this morning. 

I am not buying the GFS either considering it's track record this year.  Doesn't look like the local mets are buying it as well. 

Still banking on the storms next week to hamper my travel plans. 

Fantasy land has March coming in like a lion.