E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[JTA66]

1 hour ago, Joshb32689 said:

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2022438348405481832

I don’t know what the GRAF is but damn 

I’ve seen it used on WFMZ, but have no idea how accurate it is.

[Ralph Wiggum]

FV3 has a squall rolling thru in the early Saturday hours, maybe a quick coating in spots extreme se pa:

[Heisy]

I’ve seen it used on WFMZ, but have no idea how accurate it is.

Last time I saw it used was 2020 storm and it did well. Obviously we’re not getting 20” unless this is a jan25 2000 bust

This has been one of the more interesting storms I’ve tracked. The high end ensemble members kind of make me depressed because it just shows what a full phase could have done

[MGorse]

2 hours ago, Joshb32689 said:

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2022438348405481832

I don’t know what the GRAF is but damn 

The Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting (GRAF) model is a propriety, physics based, numerical weather prediction system developed by The Weather Company (an IBM Business) in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

[Ralph Wiggum]

12k NAM came way north for the late weekend system. Appears warmish at the start.

[Ralph Wiggum]

FV3 also way North. 

[anthonyweather]

Found the graf finally


.

[Newman]

GFS is a real solid hit. Are we really doing this? Lol

[Duca892]

This is insane GFS continues the trend 

[LVblizzard]

GFS just went full weenie. Over half a foot for most of us. What on earth is going on?

[JTA66]

Did we just get GFS’d??

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

GFS just went full weenie. Over half a foot for most of us. What on earth is going on?

Northern stream is better sampled

[Joshb32689]

Quite the trend from 1am - 7pm. South Jersey went from 0 to over a foot in some spots 

[Heisy]

One of the weirdest run ups to a storm in a long time

[Heisy]

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

[Duca892]

Does the GFS solution have supports?

[Newman]

The last 5 run trend of the GFS is wild, at some point do we see this stop trending? I still think this run is over the top and we see something more like the ICON or Euro, but it's been a long time since we've seen such significant shifts in guidance to produce a *favorable* outcome within 72 hours of an event 

[Newman]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

I'd love to read Mount Holly's night shift AFD on this one

[Kevin Reilly]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

We have models dropping 6-10” in the city, rain, 1”, and nothing. Never seen something like this before

So ingredient #1 looks like a NW flow pretty evident with a low north of Quebec Canada drifting SSW.

#2 Vort NNE of Winnepeg getting forced SSE.

#3 low in north central New Mexico about to get the boot eastbound.

#4 blocking NW flow will force storm to cut eastbound to our south then wait for a northern stream phase near Norfolk Va.

You can clearly see the pieces on the water vapor map.

This will be interesting to see unfold. 

[LVblizzard]

I’m not sure I can remember a storm threat quite like this. It’s such an unusual setup, far from what we typically see. Just crazy how such a small change at H5 in the first 12-24 hours leads to huge differences only a day later.

[Kevin Reilly]

NBC 10 has spoken coating to an inch.  We will update the map in the morning. Sounds right.