E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its 306 hours away. Of course its wrong. 

I know, just thought it was comical to see after hearing all day how epic the pattern is going to be at that same time.

Gefs completely different probably.

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know, just thought it was comical to see after hearing all day how epic the pattern is going to be at that same time.

Gefs completely different probably.

Hope we all cash in big time soon. Nice Miller A.

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hopefully the gfs op is out to lunch because this would ruin the unicorn hunters' party:

 

What could possibly go wrong? 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

What could possibly go wrong? 

Doesn’t that look familiar.

[Kevin Reilly]

Drizzle / fog here comes the warm air!

 

34f humidity 94% dewpoint 33f

I expect a 10+ degree rise by 12 am

[RedSky]

31F

[RedSky]

Dense freezing fog 

32F

[Albedoman]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know, just thought it was comical to see after hearing all day how epic the pattern is going to be at that same time.

Gefs completely different probably.

ralph, For the first time in probably 3-5 years, we have an ARKLATEX low forming on the CMC model at the end of the run. For those youngsters who do not know how real weathermen used to forecast without relying on these crappy models, this type of LP forming forming in this location is harbinger of a major 6-12+ incher  snowstorm for our region for a  good 75% of the time.  Its nice to see one even show up and my forecast of not until the 15th-19th period for a major winter storm could tumble. This is the first track able storm that may realize some good accumulating snow if the Quebec high and blocking are in place. 

[RedSky]

32.5F

The cold refuses to lose

[penndotguy]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

32.5F

The cold refuses to lose

Was thinking the same, I’m at 33F 

[bigtenfan]

The warm air is not too far away. It is 49 in Paoli.

[JTA66]

Wet fog, 42F

[Birds~69]

Fog stuff/42F

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, Albedoman said:

ralph, For the first time in probably 3-5 years, we have an ARKLATEX low forming on the CMC model at the end of the run. For those youngsters who do not know how real weathermen used to forecast without relying on these crappy models, this type of LP forming forming in this location is harbinger of a major 6-12+ incher  snowstorm for our region for a  good 75% of the time.  Its nice to see one even show up and my forecast of not until the 15th-19th period for a major winter storm could tumble. This is the first track able storm that may realize some good accumulating snow if the Quebec high and blocking are in place. 

Well that’s been the problem the cold air leaves in even these set ups hence your other 25%. 

[Kevin Reilly]

44f humidity 99% dew point 44f

 

up from 36f at 11:30 pm last night.

I was expecting warmer honestly I’m sure the 50’s are coming by 10 am

[ChescoWx]

Showers this morning with a morning high in the upper 40's but after a cold front swings through near noon temperatures will fall and winds will increase. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10am today through 1pm tomorrow. We should reach freezing by around 5pm this evening. Once we fall below freezing we may not see above freezing temperatures again for the rest of the year. We look dry for the rest of the week except for a slight chance of some snow flurries on New Year's Eve. Of note we will finish around 6 degrees below normal here for December 2025 and it will be the 2nd coldest December here in East Nantmeal in the 23 years I have been recording observations - behind only 2010.

[LVblizzard]

CAD really working its magic keeping temps in the low 40s rather than near 50. Looks like that ice on my sidewalk and driveway will be sticking around for awhile.

[simbasad2]

For the rain total folks, I'm at 0.07" on the day in West Chester, PA. Line looks like it's about done moving through, so that's probably about where I'll finish. I'll have an update if I record more

[simbasad2]

16 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

CAD really working its magic keeping temps in the low 40s rather than near 50. Looks like that ice on my sidewalk and driveway will be sticking around for awhile.

Temperatures downtrended at the last minute. Undermodeled CAD, as always.

[Duca892]

Feel like you can close the blinds on model watching for the next few days at least

[Mikeymac5306]

25 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Feel like you can close the blinds on model watching for the next few days at least

Not necessarily.  GFS just misses the phase for the 8-9th storm while the CMC has a MECS at the end of its run. Long way away but defiantly something to keep an eye on. 

[RedSky]

44F highest temp in this weak torch and still have ice 

 

 

[Birds~69]

58 minutes ago, RedSky said:

44F highest temp in this weak torch and still have ice 

 

 

Yep, super low dark clouds outside currently as well. Looking forward to the winds this afternoon/overnight. Drought guy will be posting more potential drought conditions locally. Probably busy with Lake Mead in California reaching historic low levels. Dead bodies surfacing...

[Hurricane Agnes]

And the cold front (with the wind), is coming through now.  Made it up to 51 just before 1 pm and temp is now falling rapidly and down to 44 at post time.  Picked up 0.33" of rain today with the prefrontal precip.

[Birds~69]

Winds picking up...

43F

[JTA66]

Kissed 50F after a low of 32F. Trash bins weighed down with leftover Christmas junk, will they withstand the wind??

[The Iceman]

Hit 53 here, wind moving in now. Weve been doing wind really good this winter.