E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its 306 hours away. Of course its wrong. 

I know, just thought it was comical to see after hearing all day how epic the pattern is going to be at that same time.

Gefs completely different probably.

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know, just thought it was comical to see after hearing all day how epic the pattern is going to be at that same time.

Gefs completely different probably.

Hope we all cash in big time soon. Nice Miller A.

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hopefully the gfs op is out to lunch because this would ruin the unicorn hunters' party:

 

What could possibly go wrong? 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

What could possibly go wrong? 

Doesn’t that look familiar.

[Kevin Reilly]

Drizzle / fog here comes the warm air!

 

34f humidity 94% dewpoint 33f

I expect a 10+ degree rise by 12 am

[RedSky]

31F

[RedSky]

Dense freezing fog 

32F

[Albedoman]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know, just thought it was comical to see after hearing all day how epic the pattern is going to be at that same time.

Gefs completely different probably.

ralph, For the first time in probably 3-5 years, we have an ARKLATEX low forming on the CMC model at the end of the run. For those youngsters who do not know how real weathermen used to forecast without relying on these crappy models, this type of LP forming forming in this location is harbinger of a major 6-12+ incher  snowstorm for our region for a  good 75% of the time.  Its nice to see one even show up and my forecast of not until the 15th-19th period for a major winter storm could tumble. This is the first track able storm that may realize some good accumulating snow if the Quebec high and blocking are in place. 

[RedSky]

32.5F

The cold refuses to lose

[penndotguy]

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

32.5F

The cold refuses to lose

Was thinking the same, I’m at 33F 

[bigtenfan]

The warm air is not too far away. It is 49 in Paoli.

[JTA66]

Wet fog, 42F

[Birds~69]

Fog stuff/42F

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, Albedoman said:

ralph, For the first time in probably 3-5 years, we have an ARKLATEX low forming on the CMC model at the end of the run. For those youngsters who do not know how real weathermen used to forecast without relying on these crappy models, this type of LP forming forming in this location is harbinger of a major 6-12+ incher  snowstorm for our region for a  good 75% of the time.  Its nice to see one even show up and my forecast of not until the 15th-19th period for a major winter storm could tumble. This is the first track able storm that may realize some good accumulating snow if the Quebec high and blocking are in place. 

Well that’s been the problem the cold air leaves in even these set ups hence your other 25%. 

[Kevin Reilly]

44f humidity 99% dew point 44f

 

up from 36f at 11:30 pm last night.

I was expecting warmer honestly I’m sure the 50’s are coming by 10 am