12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[87storms]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

We will still see snow. Will it amount to much? Who knows. It’s a race against rising temps. Snow on 12/2 is exciting all the same. 

It’s exciting if it does snow, but I’m not sold on it here lol. Your location is better in general for seeing frozen. My elevation is only 350’. Actually, downtown Frederick proper isn’t really that good at snow…we average less than upper Moco. The higher elevations of Frederick are a different geo. That said, I would “think” it would start as snow areawide given the overnight onset, but like you said it’s day 1 of met winter and not our wheelhouse.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

It’s exciting if it does snow, but I’m not sold on it here lol. Your location is better in general for seeing frozen. My elevation is only 350’. Actually, downtown Frederick proper isn’t really that good at snow…we average less than upper Moco. The higher elevations of Frederick are a different geo. That said, I would “think” it would start as snow areawide given the overnight onset, but like you said it’s day 1 of met winter and not our wheelhouse.

Fair enough. I thought you had a bit more elevation. 

[Weather Will]

Actually, the 3K NAM was never on board for this system in MD east of the mountains.  I knew it was a red flag on a post yesterday and I should have known better....lesson learned for the rest of this winter.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Fair enough. I thought you had a bit more elevation. 

I’m in the Whittier area…right at the edge of where elevation increases (and falls lol). Only 7 miles to the top of the Watershed. It’s pretty wild how much of a difference a few hundred feet can make here.

You’re in a good spot for this one.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m in the Whittier area…right at the edge of where elevation increases (and falls lol). Only 7 miles to the top of the Watershed. It’s pretty wild how much of a difference a few hundred feet can make here.

You’re in a good spot for this one.

Yeah and in this setup, those extra hundred feet in elevation makes a big difference. 

[mitchnick]

Gfs holds

[mitchnick]

[87storms]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Yeah and in this setup, those extra hundred feet in elevation makes a big difference. 

Correction, Im actually 400’, but dt Frederick is 350’. There’s been a few storms where I can see snow on the top of gambrill. I have a feeling this might be one of them. Tomorrow morning should look cool, regardless.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Actually, the 3K NAM was never on board for this system in MD east of the mountains.  I knew it was a red flag on a post yesterday and I should have known better....lesson learned for the rest of this winter.

It’s for a warm nose at 750-800 mb, hence the mixier depiction. It’s usually good at sniffing those out at this range.

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Correction, Im actually 400’, but dt Frederick is 350’. There’s been a few storms where I can see snow on the top of gambrill. I have a feeling this might be one of them. Tomorrow morning should look cool, regardless.

Yeah. Expecting a 2hr delay here, maybe a few hours of snow before the flip to sleet and then a cold rain. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s for a warm nose at 750-800 mb, hence the mixier depiction. It’s usually good at sniffing those out at this range.

I think the only hope for a snowier outcome (and even then it’s mostly for the NW fringes of the forum, is for it to come in hot and heavy and the dynamic cooling and mixing of the column keeps it isothermal near 32 long enough to get the classic thump surprise. We’ve seen it happen. But it’s not something we can nail down ahead of time usually. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think the only hope for a snowier outcome (and even then it’s mostly for the NW fringes of the forum, is for it to come in hot and heavy and the dynamic cooling and mixing of the column keeps it isothermal near 32 long enough to get the classic thump surprise. We’ve seen it happen. But it’s not something we can nail down ahead of time usually. 

Yep. That's what the Gfs does  

[H2O]

I’m at elevation 187’ which gives my rain plenty of time to warm up to about 80° when it finally makes its journey from 10,000ft to surface

[bncho]

CMC is still adamant on some ZR to start the event in the metros. temperatures are actually relatively cold at onset, around 27-30

[Imgoinhungry]

CMC is still adamant on some ZR to start the event in the metros. temperatures are actually relatively cold at onset, around 27-30

Id be surprised if we didnt see some frozen stuff before/during morning rush. Even in central moco.


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[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

CMC is still adamant on some ZR to start the event in the metros. temperatures are actually relatively cold at onset, around 27-30

Big flag for me is that not only do no other models show this, the HDRPS (highest res Canadian) shows nothing like this minus for the mountains. Given that model is the Canadian member id think has the best shot at this… I’m out 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO is a rug pull...

Getting to the point that even 18 hours out now draws wildly varying and changing presentation outlooks 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Attention cliff jumpers: the annual panic room is now open.

[bncho]

RRFS for what it's worth... can anybody tell me where it comes from?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

RRFS for what it's worth... can anybody tell me where it comes from?

I'll  take "More Shitty Models" for $1,000 Alex.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll  take "More Shitty Models" for $1,000 Alex.

Okay, this one you'll have to guess based off the output. 

(for some reason I can't zoom in onto the Mid-Atlantic with this model)

[WVclimo]

Models barely holding on to snow here, with no breathing room left.  Morning runs for my yard:

6Z ECMWF- 2.0” (10:1)

12Z GFS- 3.5” (Kuchera)

12Z CMC- 5.5”  (10:1)

12Z RGEM-  5”  (10:1)

12Z UKMET- 3.5”  (10:1)

12Z NAM 12km- 2.5”  (10:1)

12Z NAM 3km- 1.5”  (10:1)

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Okay, this one you'll have to guess based off the output. 

(for some reason I can't zoom in onto the Mid-Atlantic with this model)

Wxbell model Spire only because it says it on the lower left corner

[Imgoinhungry]

Strange for NWS to expand WWA into northern moco given the model trends. They giving credence to HRRR?


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[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Strange for NWS to expand WWA into northern moco given the model trends. They giving credence to HRRR?


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They issued that before this last minute model do over 

[Eskimo Joe]

@wxmeddler did a thing for us!