First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[CoastalWx]

Gfs about the same as 6z, maybe the tiniest ever so slightly flatter heights over New England. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs about the same as 6z, maybe the tiniest ever so slightly flatter heights over New England. 

Was gonna say i was surpsied to see GFS might actually look a tick flatter through 18h

[Great Snow 1717]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A lot of folks that were expecting snow are going to be upset (myself included) These short term trends are brutal. I started sensing it yesterday. I was so looking forward to this too . Super depressed

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was gonna say i was surpsied to see GFS might actually look a tick flatter through 18h

At  925 it’s a smidge warmer, it looks like it’s due to perhaps a little bit less than the way of dynamics.

[Prismshine Productions]

Wonder why NWS Albany hasn't hoisted Winter Storm Warnings yet...

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Man that run is close to flattening Ray’s Davis.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At  925 it’s a smidge warmer, it looks like it’s due to perhaps a little bit less than the way of dynamics.

Yeah rates def not quite as good as 06z. 

I think I'm pretty much toast here. Winter hill might do really well still as long as we don't get a zonked NAM look. 

[WinterWolf]

As long as I can get a covering here…it’d be a win this early. Hopefully that’s still in the cards. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kevin is right on the line of 2" vs 6"

[WinterWolf]

He’s gonna do better than he thinks…

[HoarfrostHubb]

Bedford / Lowell area gets smoked

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that run is close to flattening Ray’s Davis.

IDK...what may prevent that idea is overall flake size might be pretty putrid. Have to wait another 56 minutes for bufkit but panning around some soundings that DGZ is awfully high. It's also difficult to find really any extraordinary lift that barely gets to the base of the DGZ. I think we'll see a narrow area where snowgrowth is excellent for a period of time, but that may be brief. Snow rates will probably be heavy but the flake size is going to be putrid. You'll have to go into NH and ME to really get the good stuff. 

I'm thinking 3-4" of snow is going to be the most common and widespread within the questionable areas which should hold back any power outage/damage risk. Max totals probably 5-8" into NH/ME. 

[WxWatcher007]

@dryslot

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s gonna do better than he thinks…

He's prob toast too if I'm toast. We need a little trend back between now and tomorrow but that becomes less and less likely as you get closer to verification. Models are more likely to be correct when they shift the closer we are to an event. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As long as I can get a covering here…it’d be a win this early. Hopefully that’s still in the cards. 

This is 100% rain event for CT now other than NW Hills . Maybe it starts as an hour of snow. There won’t be any coverings 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This is 100% rain event for CT now other than NW Hills . Maybe it starts as an hour of snow. There won’t be any coverings 

Ok cool…no worries then. On to the next potential next Wednesday then. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Kevin is right on the line of 2" vs 6"

I am not joking or kidding . I am fully convinced and expecting a 32.8-33.4 rain If it starts as snow for an hour that will be the extent . There won’t be any backend snows either. At least not in CT

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...what may prevent that idea is overall flake size might be pretty putrid. Have to wait another 56 minutes for bufkit but panning around some soundings that DGZ is awfully high. It's also difficult to find really any extraordinary lift that barely gets to the base of the DGZ. I think we'll see a narrow area where snowgrowth is excellent for a period of time, but that may be brief. Snow rates will probably be heavy but the flake size is going to be putrid. You'll have to go into NH and ME to really get the good stuff. 

I'm thinking 3-4" of snow is going to be the most common and widespread within the questionable areas which should hold back any power outage/damage risk. Max totals probably 5-8" into NH/ME. 

Yeah they’ll be a DGZ above 700. So where the 700-500 lift is maximized, probably where the band is. 

[CoastalWx]

Sounds like Tollandblizzard2013

[Kitz Craver]

I’m going flakeless for this. That’s my call for MBY

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am not joking or kidding . I am fully convinced and expecting a 32.8-33.4 rain If it starts as snow for an hour that will be the extent . There won’t be any backend snows either. At least not in CT

I know   you could definitely be right.  Hoping it cools off some

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@dryslot

 

Yeah Don, GYX has that mentioned in there AFD as well, That's a nowcast once we see where that sets up.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah they’ll be a DGZ above 700. So where the 700-500 lift is maximized, probably where the band is. 

Just a question of where that is but the most likely scenario is probably from Maine (just inland from the coast) back through CNE. I do wonder if there is some room to pop some 8-10" within that band.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that run is close to flattening Ray’s Davis.

Ambient.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...what may prevent that idea is overall flake size might be pretty putrid. Have to wait another 56 minutes for bufkit but panning around some soundings that DGZ is awfully high. It's also difficult to find really any extraordinary lift that barely gets to the base of the DGZ. I think we'll see a narrow area where snowgrowth is excellent for a period of time, but that may be brief. Snow rates will probably be heavy but the flake size is going to be putrid. You'll have to go into NH and ME to really get the good stuff. 

I'm thinking 3-4" of snow is going to be the most common and widespread within the questionable areas which should hold back any power outage/damage risk. Max totals probably 5-8" into NH/ME. 

Yes, I pointed this out.

That being said, enhancement is a relative term, and while travel will be disrupted, these will not be crippling rates given the less than ideal banding signal in conjunction with the rapid pace of movement.

 

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s gonna do better than he thinks…

So are you

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah Don, GYX has that mentioned in there AFD as well, That's a nowcast once we see where that sets up.

I’m probably still on the outside looking in here at SLK, but I’ll actually need to drive to Albany tomorrow with my wife. Trying to figure out the best time for that…

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah Don, GYX has that mentioned in there AFD as well, That's a nowcast once we see where that sets up.

I volunteer. And to promote my candidacy, I will promise hourly videos, and on the ground reports.  
It’s the 700 mbar low that we’re focused on here. Is that right?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

So are you

Hey if I can pick up a covering, that’ll be a win. But I was just told zero snow here in CT, so whatever.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m probably still on the outside looking in here at SLK, but I’ll actually need to drive to Albany tomorrow with my wife. Trying to figure out the best time for that…

You would probably be better off there if the slp wasn't slipping off to the ENE east of NS, At others expense, We would need a track into the GOM to get precip back into the mountains, This one is basically going to be foothills to the coast system.