First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, EURO AI ens are enfuego.

[H2Otown_WX]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, EURO AI ens are enfuego.

Do we value them? Is AI doing better than the regular Euro?

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, EURO AI ens are enfuego.

Euro AI itself is a massive hit for us in the moderate interior. But trusting any OP right now is asking for trouble. 
 

I think we’d take a model blend right now and run. 

[WinterWolf]

How does the EPS look? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

How does the EPS look? 

They look a bit juicier than the OP in terms of amplification but not by much. But that’s prob a good sign we’re gonna see model convergence. Betting OP is still a bit too flat

 

[WinterWolf]

I’m no MET, but that’s not a bad look at this juncture imo.  Thank you for posting Will. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Man, NAM is out to lunch but I would take my chances riding those dynamics in Greenfield, despite my low elevation. 

[dendrite]

NAM is still very amped. Nice model battle. Back to bed. 

[ineedsnow]

Tuesday

Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible

[ORH_wxman]

GFS came in a little colder too. Maybe we’ll get a GFS/Euro convergence today. 
 

 

[H2Otown_WX]

41 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Tuesday

Snow, mainly after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible

C'mon, that's a ridiculous forecast lol. The forward speed of this won't allow for accumulations that high imo.

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

C'mon, that's a ridiculous forecast lol. The forward speed of this won't allow for accumulations that high imo.

[ineedsnow]

28 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

32 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

C'mon, that's a ridiculous forecast lol. The forward speed of this won't allow for accumulations that high imo.

Rates could be wild for a bit if things break right.. 6z GEFS mean bumped up to 7 for here 

[ineedsnow]

[Kitz Craver]

GFS cooled off pretty good and lost the double barrel thing. Looks decent

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

T-3” here? Lol

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

T-3” here? Lol

Aren't they always the most cautious. They are the same with their temp outlooks too.

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

T-3” here? Lol

Looks like a GFS/NAM leaning forecast 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Looks like a GFS/NAM leaning forecast 

Looks like a very bad forecast 

[mahk_webstah]

GYX is aggressive here with 5-9 in zones plus more in the early evening.  Going with blend on qpf of .7-1.0

[Kitz Craver]

Anecdotally my phone forecast went from 1-3” with .5 rain before I went to bed back up to 7-9” this morning. Doesn’t mean much, but happy it didn’t go the other way for what it’s worth 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like a very bad forecast 

I truly wouldn't put much stock into their forecast. It's going to change.

[dendrite]

This is how much the euro AI changed in 36hrs to the current 6z run

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS came in a little colder too. Maybe we’ll get a GFS/Euro convergence today. 
 

 

It’s really coming down to intensity and how mid-levels act. Euro is just a bit more organized, mitigating any warm air intrusion beyond the south coast, while the GFS brings that further inland about 30 miles.

[Baroclinic Zone]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

T-3” here? Lol

 

26 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Aren't they always the most cautious. They are the same with their temp outlooks too.

It’s a confidence level they have this far out. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

And you’re welcome everyone. Juju.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

It’s a confidence level they have this far out. 

0.5”-10” for IZG lol

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is how much the euro AI changed in 36hrs to the current 6z run

Obviously GYX was aggressive for a reason.   I wasn’t paying close enough attention.  Looks like we have a decent 1st storm with cold to keep it and squalls in Thursday to freshen it and then more at the weekend.

[CoastalWx]

6z euro still fighting the dual low but very similar to 00z. Getting stability there.

[CoastalWx]

Those maps are ridiculous.