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Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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Pretty (somewhat unexpected) active morning across the OKC Metro this morning with widespread severe t'storm warnings and even a couple tornado warnings.

The last time this happened in January was 2021, which foreshadowed a very (for some folks, historic) cold/stormy pattern the following month.

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1 hour ago, DocATL said:

EPS and GEFS aren’t bad with temps. No arctic hammer. I mean that’s a win.

It varies by location, but generally the mid-January to early February is the coldest period of the year in this region (at Detroit, the coldest 2 weeks are January 18-31). So when you see ensemble maps with colder than avg temps during the coldest time of year - thats cold. Also, the colder than avg anomalies in already frigid places paired with the warmer than avg anomalies in already warm places mean a HUGE contrast in temps. This places our region in a great spot for potential. I mean, its just that, potential, but you definitely cant hate the look going forward.

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8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

nothing worse than an east coast pattern when you're stuck with lake effect vaporware 

At least we'll get one or two UKIE runs that shows 36 inches into Chicago when in the end we just get lake mood flakes

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nothing worse than an east coast pattern when you're stuck with lake effect vaporware 

Helluva a look for the southeast as well. I mean it won’t be as wild as 7 inches in Pensacola while we basked in NW flow but still.
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On 1/3/2026 at 10:15 PM, RogueWaves said:

You talkin Detroit proper (city of) and/or DTW or just the Metro. Metro had the nice 8-12" pounding 3-3-23. Saw SUV's stuck - something I never expected in Canton.

Ahh yea I didn't recall that one since the east side had mixing. Was a nice storm for central/western metro. Still would be nice to have to fly home for a good storm.

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