Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Frog Town]

This! Whether is comes to fruition is another question but this is where we need the cold to get real action in sub..

[TheNiño]

On 1/6/2026 at 1:40 PM, Baum said:

Start the thread: Bear Down Thump Event

We should have a thread either way given the importance of the day lol 

[cyclone77]

Hopefully next weekend's system does something.  This weekend's system is a non-event for most areas other than Wisconsin and Michigan.

 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Baum]

44 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

Looking forward to the salt washer today. 

[Powerball]

Pretty (somewhat unexpected) active morning across the OKC Metro this morning with widespread severe t'storm warnings and even a couple tornado warnings.

The last time this happened in January was 2021, which foreshadowed a very (for some folks, historic) cold/stormy pattern the following month.

[A-L-E-K]

EPS look still not bad to good in fantasy range, just need to get there

[buckeye]

record high incoming tomorrow...  too bad it has to come with rain though

[A-L-E-K]

Cad + east coast pattern, rough

[dmc76]

“pushback game” Never want to play those in January 

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Cad + east coast pattern, rough

Met your precip quota for the rest of the winter last night. 

[A-L-E-K]

yeah that was cool

[Cary67]

Some areas over 3" downtown. ORD at 1.9" 

[A-L-E-K]

always nice to keep the D1 at bay

[DocATL]

EPS and GEFS aren’t bad with temps. No arctic hammer. I mean that’s a win.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

EPS and GEFS aren’t bad with temps. No arctic hammer. I mean that’s a win.

It varies by location, but generally the mid-January to early February is the coldest period of the year in this region (at Detroit, the coldest 2 weeks are January 18-31). So when you see ensemble maps with colder than avg temps during the coldest time of year - thats cold. Also, the colder than avg anomalies in already frigid places paired with the warmer than avg anomalies in already warm places mean a HUGE contrast in temps. This places our region in a great spot for potential. I mean, its just that, potential, but you definitely cant hate the look going forward.

[A-L-E-K]

nothing worse than an east coast pattern when you're stuck with lake effect vaporware 

[Chicago916]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

nothing worse than an east coast pattern when you're stuck with lake effect vaporware 

At least we'll get one or two UKIE runs that shows 36 inches into Chicago when in the end we just get lake mood flakes

[DocATL]

nothing worse than an east coast pattern when you're stuck with lake effect vaporware 

Helluva a look for the southeast as well. I mean it won’t be as wild as 7 inches in Pensacola while we basked in NW flow but still.

[cyclone77]

Hopefully February delivers.