December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

35 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'll take option one please.

Meh...72" is like being fringed!

[CAPE]

Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.

[MillvilleWx]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.

Honestly, went through a majority of Christmases in Midland in the low 50s with a chilly morning. Wasn't bad at all. Just don't want humidity unless snow is involved. Keep it dry and coolish and I'm fine.

[CAPE]

Latest Euro weeklies continue to depict a shift from -WPO/+EPO to a -EPO heading into mid Jan, with a pretty decent NA look.

The pattern becomes pretty respectable prior to that. Western US trough not as deep with a flattish PNA ridge developing  by the 10th.

 

 

[Weather Will]

Anyone know anything about the AI GFS....trying to form a coastal after the NY....(WB 18Z).  Too many models...it would be nice if one of them would start to stand out like the EURO used to....

 

[CAPE]

Still cant rule out the potential for something towards the end of the month/early Jan with looks like this continuing to pop up on guidance. The wave doesnt dig quite enough this run, but even with a hostile Pacific, a legit NAO block can change the game and give us a shot. Just cant know yet lol.

[jayyy]

Still cant rule out the potential for something towards the end of the month/early Jan with looks like this continuing to pop up on guidance. The wave doesnt dig quite enough this run, but even with a hostile Pacific, a legit NAO block can change the game and give us a shot. Just cant know yet lol.

Agreed. A hostile PAC can be temporarily overcome by a great block anchoring in a high pressure to our north and pushing a low to our south. Won’t be the type of pattern where snow has staying power but a well timed wave could still absolutely produce and possibly produce big if just right. Cards on the table for the 12/31-1/3 timeframe but we’ll see

[baltosquid]

Yeah that is the period to watch until a pattern shift. Definitely a lot of rumbling about some sort of wave rolling through. But the blocking situation or whether we get a good 50/50 or not is just super far from getting resolved.

[mitchnick]

What a fantasy ending on the 0z Gfs

[bncho]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV

I was actually pretty damn close--if the GFS ran up to hour 440.

[brooklynwx99]

nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken 

[CAPE]

6z GFS does deliver some frozen/freezing precip for end of the month period but who cares about the details this far out- keep advertising NA looks like this with a bowling ball rolling across the south and we stay interested.

[CAPE]

6z GEFS has the same general idea- energy ejecting eastward with confluence under the block.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Honestly, went through a majority of Christmases in Midland in the low 50s with a chilly morning. Wasn't bad at all. Just don't want humidity unless snow is involved. Keep it dry and coolish and I'm fine.

Same here.  I don't expect snowy Christmases (or Decembers in general) in the DMV area anyhow.  But a nice, chilly day in the 40s or so is fine, and at least not a washout with rain.  Or where it feels humid as you say!  In 2015 here, we had that ridiculous +8 or so departure for the month (thank God that didn't happen in July!).  It was literally uncomfortably warm and humid after some heavy rain late evening on Christmas Eve.

Now, growing up in northeast Ohio, different story!  Definitely plenty of cold and snowy Decembers and Christmases there which was always great.  Actually I recall one of the most striking reversals in terms of Christmas temperatures.  In 1982, Cleveland set a record high on Christmas of 66 degrees (that was a crap winter all around).  Exactly one year later in 1983, they set a record low of -10, brutal cold and wind all day with some Lake effect snow, temperatures barely got into the single digits for highs.

[dailylurker]

Snooze fest in here. Everyone must be Christmas shopping lol

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Snooze fest in here. Everyone must be Christmas shopping lol

Nothing to talk about until the 12z model suite comes out. 

[CAPE]

lol Christmas shopping. I do that sitting on my arse in front of the computer with a bourbon.

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol Christmas shopping. I do that sitting on my arse in front of the computer with a bourbon.

Yeah. I definitely showed my age. I'm off to the mall to buy my mom a new house phone for her landline lol

[TSSN+]

Gfs showing a cold rain for Christmas Day. Bleh. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs showing a cold rain for Christmas Day. Bleh. 

Truly great news to me.  Would take 50 and rain over 40 and sun.  At toast on Christmas.  

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

The day after looks scorching. I wonder if we can hit 70-75. 

Upper 50s-low 60s on the GFS. Euro low to mid 60s. CMC keeps us in the low 40s lol.

[stormy]

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

The day after looks scorching. I wonder if we can hit 70-75. 

That would wake up the dormant fruit buds on my apple trees if it persisted!!!!!!

[Solution Man]

We always get warm right

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We always get warm right

Yes yes we do.