December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

35 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'll take option one please.

Meh...72" is like being fringed!

[CAPE]

Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.

[MillvilleWx]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.

Honestly, went through a majority of Christmases in Midland in the low 50s with a chilly morning. Wasn't bad at all. Just don't want humidity unless snow is involved. Keep it dry and coolish and I'm fine.

[CAPE]

Latest Euro weeklies continue to depict a shift from -WPO/+EPO to a -EPO heading into mid Jan, with a pretty decent NA look.

The pattern becomes pretty respectable prior to that. Western US trough not as deep with a flattish PNA ridge developing  by the 10th.

 

 

[Weather Will]

Anyone know anything about the AI GFS....trying to form a coastal after the NY....(WB 18Z).  Too many models...it would be nice if one of them would start to stand out like the EURO used to....

 

[CAPE]

Still cant rule out the potential for something towards the end of the month/early Jan with looks like this continuing to pop up on guidance. The wave doesnt dig quite enough this run, but even with a hostile Pacific, a legit NAO block can change the game and give us a shot. Just cant know yet lol.

[jayyy]

Still cant rule out the potential for something towards the end of the month/early Jan with looks like this continuing to pop up on guidance. The wave doesnt dig quite enough this run, but even with a hostile Pacific, a legit NAO block can change the game and give us a shot. Just cant know yet lol.

Agreed. A hostile PAC can be temporarily overcome by a great block anchoring in a high pressure to our north and pushing a low to our south. Won’t be the type of pattern where snow has staying power but a well timed wave could still absolutely produce and possibly produce big if just right. Cards on the table for the 12/31-1/3 timeframe but we’ll see

[baltosquid]

Yeah that is the period to watch until a pattern shift. Definitely a lot of rumbling about some sort of wave rolling through. But the blocking situation or whether we get a good 50/50 or not is just super far from getting resolved.

[mitchnick]

What a fantasy ending on the 0z Gfs

[bncho]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV

I was actually pretty damn close--if the GFS ran up to hour 440.

[brooklynwx99]

nice to see the -NAO strengthen and the Pacific trough weaken