December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Chances on chances on chances over the next 2 weeks

One’s gotta deliver!

Are you new here?

[WxUSAF]

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

Time to cook! 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

7 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

If this is 9 consecutive below average I wonder when  last times we had 10 in December was and especially  pre 12/15 .?

This is a bit out of your range, but we had 15 consecutive below average days at BWI from 12/25/2017-1/8/2018- most of them double digits. That cold snap was impressive- I remember it well- but it seems to have been forgotten by many.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO and AI under 6 days....let's score before the cold relaxes.

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

Pattern has to break, but "usually " the pattern from November into December returns as the predominant pattern. Again...usually. No guarantees in weather like stock investing. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO and AI under 6 days....let's score before the cold relaxes.

Part (<1") of that accumulation on the 6z Euro is from Friday evening system fwiw.

[aldie 22]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

Sounds like some may have one more mow for the season 

[WxUSAF]

36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Time to cook! 

 

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pattern has to break, but "usually " the pattern from November into December returns as the predominant pattern. Again...usually. No guarantees in weather like stock investing. 

 

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sounds like some may have one more mow for the season 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

That’s torchmas 

[Weather Will]

If we get 2-4 inches of snow in December that's more than most Decembers....look at the glass as half full rather than half empty!

[Ji]

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

But Bamwx….

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

But Bamwx….

The torch/SE ridge progs have stayed firmly beyond D10 for weeks now. Maybe this one is different but I want to see it inside of D7 first before I buy it. Persistent MJO phase 8 argue against it.

[nj2va]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO and AI under 6 days....let's score before the cold relaxes.

I’d love to see this pattern continue through the Christmas/NY week to help the snow resorts build up impressive bases. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

And 6z GEFS completely flips to se ridge 

[aldie 22]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

And 6z GEFS completely flips to se ridge 

I guess we are going to see Chuck posting alot more now

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

Dec is the last remaining month where DCA has never hit 80F.  We need to think big here folks.

[Scraff]

27 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I guess we are going to see Chuck posting alot more now

Are you nuts!? Shhhhh!! Why are you trying to wake the sleeping giant? 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

AIFS ENS actually looks pretty nice. I feel like this is more likely given the tropical forcing but who knows

[Ji]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The torch/SE ridge progs have stayed firmly beyond D10 for weeks now. Maybe this one is different but I want to see it inside of D7 first before I buy it. Persistent MJO phase 8 argue against it.

the 6z GEFS looks like EPS now with SE ridge. Big change from 00z

[WxUSAF]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

AIFS ENS actually looks pretty nice. I feel like this is more likely given the tropical forcing but who knows

Sort of similar to GEPS, but better over the pole. That’s a gradient look, but obviously a lot of cold air available to tap. Not shut the blinds. 

[WxUSAF]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And 6z GEFS completely flips to se ridge 

 

Just now, Ji said:

the 6z GEFS looks like EPS now with SE ridge. Big change from 00z

 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

I hope so. I’m going toFlorida (yes, on purpose) for Xmas holidays with bfs family from the 24th -2.  I just know I’m going to miss a storm, rolling the dice like this.  
 

So, early congrats.  

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope so. I’m going toFlorida (yes, on purpose) for Xmas holidays with bfs family from the 24th -2.  I just know I’m going to miss a storm, rolling the dice like this.  
 

So, early congrats.  

You’re going to miss an 8-12” storm, it’s nothing you haven’t seen before so you’re good. 

[Bob Chill]

10 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

@Bob Chill, ditto here. Holler if you need an extra pair of hands with anything. 

 

10 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That would be a blast! 

Pretty tuff and dirty stuff right now lol. Building a locking block retaining wall. 60' long x 3' high. 285 blocks at 65lbs each lol. Few call that a blast hahaha. Next up is a timber framed 12x24 greenhouse. That will actually be pretty fun. Hard job but fun. You guys can set the rafters 

On topic post: Cold period looks very likely to break down for an unspecified period of time with much uncertainty beyond that. 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

AIFS ENS actually looks pretty nice. I feel like this is more likely given the tropical forcing but who knows

This looks like zonal Pacific Puke to me. Can you illustrate what the upside if to this kind of upper air presentation?

[Eskimo Joe]

HR93 on the 06z Euro puts light snow for everyone north of I-66 on Saturday? Would be a 1" - 3" event.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This looks like zonal Pacific Puke to me. Can you illustrate what the upside if to this kind of upper air presentation?

Happens every year around the 22 nd of December like clockwork.

Not surprising really, although we have a stout - WPO there is too much Pac jet momentum. The Pac always rules as seen the past two weeks with a - AO and a - NAO and still nothing to show for it. I don't really care what folks say about climo as we had extreme cold air in Canada and a - AO and a - NAO, but in December you need a good PAC and a + PNA . We lost out because of the PNA.    

 

 

 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HR93 on the 06z Euro puts light snow for everyone north of I-66 on Saturday? Would be a 1" - 3" event.

Friday night

And then Sunday morning 

 

 

believe at own risk lol

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This looks like zonal Pacific Puke to me. Can you illustrate what the upside if to this kind of upper air presentation?

A simple trough progression brings winter right back to the conus. Winter is lurking and waiting to pounce. Of course if the trough digs in the west, winter won't be in east for a little while lol but there is nothing depressing about that plot in the big picture. Move the swath of zonal into Canada and we in some trouble. Serious trouble lol