December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Chances on chances on chances over the next 2 weeks

One’s gotta deliver!

Are you new here?

[WxUSAF]

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

Time to cook! 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

7 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

If this is 9 consecutive below average I wonder when  last times we had 10 in December was and especially  pre 12/15 .?

This is a bit out of your range, but we had 15 consecutive below average days at BWI from 12/25/2017-1/8/2018- most of them double digits. That cold snap was impressive- I remember it well- but it seems to have been forgotten by many.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO and AI under 6 days....let's score before the cold relaxes.

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

Pattern has to break, but "usually " the pattern from November into December returns as the predominant pattern. Again...usually. No guarantees in weather like stock investing. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO and AI under 6 days....let's score before the cold relaxes.

Part (<1") of that accumulation on the 6z Euro is from Friday evening system fwiw.

[aldie 22]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

Sounds like some may have one more mow for the season 

[WxUSAF]

36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Time to cook! 

 

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pattern has to break, but "usually " the pattern from November into December returns as the predominant pattern. Again...usually. No guarantees in weather like stock investing. 

 

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sounds like some may have one more mow for the season 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

That’s torchmas 

[Weather Will]

If we get 2-4 inches of snow in December that's more than most Decembers....look at the glass as half full rather than half empty!

[Ji]

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

But Bamwx….

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

But Bamwx….

The torch/SE ridge progs have stayed firmly beyond D10 for weeks now. Maybe this one is different but I want to see it inside of D7 first before I buy it. Persistent MJO phase 8 argue against it.

[nj2va]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO and AI under 6 days....let's score before the cold relaxes.

I’d love to see this pattern continue through the Christmas/NY week to help the snow resorts build up impressive bases. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Big divergence in ensembles toward Xmas. GEFS keeps an eastern trough although the western ridge pushes the trough axis over us and even offshore for a time. EPS goes full SE ridge with a deep western trough developing. Geps somewhat in between but leaning more toward EPS. 

And 6z GEFS completely flips to se ridge 

[aldie 22]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

And 6z GEFS completely flips to se ridge 

I guess we are going to see Chuck posting alot more now

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

Would it even be the Christmas season without some days in the 60s!?!

Dec is the last remaining month where DCA has never hit 80F.  We need to think big here folks.