December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

i would wait to call 12/2-3 dead until the nov 30 storm happens. 36 hours out from then and there's still lots discrepancy between models. indy doesn't know whether they're going to get 8 inches of snow or just plain rain rn

[WEATHER53]

That high  running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2.  
Further west  by 350 miles is needed

[mitchnick]

[mitchnick]

Euro is a N&W event similar to map above.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensembles for early next week:

[TSSN+]

6z euro still looks on for northwest crew. 
 

 

[stormy]

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

That high  running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2.  
Further west  by 350 miles is needed

100% correct. 

Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. 

No 50-50 low,  no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source.

And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor.  The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06  11-27 to .60" at 06  11-28.  I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.   

[WxUSAF]

33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro still looks on for northwest crew. 
 

 

Fall line event makes sense for climo in early season

[Terpeast]

Small bit of good news - cold is overperforming. For the midwest storm, their forecasters shifted their maps a tick south.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Small bit of good news - cold is overperforming. For the midwest storm, their forecasters shifted their maps a tick south.

We'll take anything we can get.

[winter_warlock]

Which is more accurate. Euro control. Or Euro AIFS? 

[87storms]

GFS vortmax is further north than we'd want based on "my lack of formal training" experience.  Euro is further south, but still not completely ideal.  That's been a trend for the last couple years...northern stream is either too far north or flatting the southern stream.  At this point, I just want a storm that reminds me that we can in fact get a southern stream dominant wave that drops an inch of precip over the region.

[WVclimo]

06Z GFS looks pretty slick out this way Tuesday morning. 0.75” FZRA.  A lot of it with temps 29-30°

 

[frd]

The AO remains positive, but we have intense cold in Canada and a weak PV. 

The MJO and the general progression could show potential Dec 15 th to Jan 5 th for the East Coast. 

>>>

 

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Good to see the MJO crawl through Phase 7, 8, 1. The other year it damn near blasted through over 4 days. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Good to see the MJO crawl through Phase 7, 8, 1. The other year it damn near blasted through over 4 days. 

Yeah, if it rockets through the cold phases, it won't do anything for us. A slow crawl hugging COD would extend cold risk for us.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, if it rockets through the cold phases, it won't do anything for us. A slow crawl hugging COD would extend cold risk for us.

I believe @GaWx had a detailed post about the benefits of a favorable phase(s) closer to the COD,  versus high amplitude.