December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

i would wait to call 12/2-3 dead until the nov 30 storm happens. 36 hours out from then and there's still lots discrepancy between models. indy doesn't know whether they're going to get 8 inches of snow or just plain rain rn

[WEATHER53]

That high  running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2.  
Further west  by 350 miles is needed

[mitchnick]

[mitchnick]

Euro is a N&W event similar to map above.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensembles for early next week:

[TSSN+]

6z euro still looks on for northwest crew. 
 

 

[stormy]

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

That high  running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2.  
Further west  by 350 miles is needed

100% correct. 

Possible, but the 12-2 system has the deck stacked against it. 

No 50-50 low,  no Lakes to New England H.P. as a cold air source.

And of course, our long time drought pattern that no one fully understands is again an aggravating factor.  The GFS dropped the QPF from 1.48" for Augusta at 06  11-27 to .60" at 06  11-28.  I don't have enough fingers to count how many times this has happened during the past 4 months.   

[WxUSAF]

33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro still looks on for northwest crew. 
 

 

Fall line event makes sense for climo in early season