December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

It’s a Thanksgiving miracle!

[bncho]

temps are 32-33 the whole event!

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

12z GFS shows -4C 850 temps at 6z Tuesday for DCA. 0z had +2C during the same timeframe.

Sunday's storm has trended a few mb stronger which seems to help confluence linger around for a bit longer.

[NorthArlington101]

a tiny bit of this is from Sunday

[bncho]

micro folks

[TSSN+]

Upper 20s northern areas with the heavy snow frame is beauty. 

[Scraff]

GooFuS has restored my faith! LFG!! Happy TGiving everyone!  Enjoy until Dr No shows up. 

[bncho]

it's actually a very cool storm imo. 4-8 inches of snow with a layer of ice on top sounds like fun

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

a tiny bit of this is from Sunday

Paging @Ralph Wiggum

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a Thanksgiving miracle!

lock that up and call it a winter....

 

till Dec 6-7!

[stormtracker]

Not buying.  Yet.  Go eat some Turkey yall. 

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

12z GFS shows -4C 850 temps at 6z Tuesday for DCA. 0z had +2C during the same timeframe.

Which means it will probably change again lol, but still a nice shift (not trend).  We're due for an early December snow day that doesn't include scattered snow showers that take 12 hrs to accumulate a half inch.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

it's actually a very cool storm imo. 4-8 inches of snow with a layer of ice on top sounds like fun

Ice wise for the southwestern areas it would be freezing rain in the upper 20s so may be legit enough to cause issues. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Wonder if the 5th has any potential as the GFS has another shortwave take a similar path but looks to get shredded

[Ji]

hasnt things trended colder on the whole? or is that weenie wishcasting

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

hasnt things trended colder on the whole? or is that weenie wishcasting

Well, if anybody would know...

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Paging @Ralph Wiggum

Still feel fall line s and e will have to wait for theirs. One gfs run doesn't change my thoughts.

[NorthArlington101]

Don't have the pretty maps but don't see how Canadian doesn't start us wintry, whether snow or ice. Pretty darn cold right before the precip rolls in

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Don't have the pretty maps but don't see how Canadian doesn't start us wintry, whether snow or ice. Pretty darn cold right before the precip rolls in

We lost the 850s before the storm started so will be icy instead of snowy.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

We lost the 850s before the storm started so will be icy instead of snowy.

yep, think it's gonna be icy. CMC and it's para were icy last night so it's at least consistent. Canadian models love ice and I swear they are always too cold

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

yep, think it's gonna be icy. CMC and it's para were icy last night so it's at least consistent. Canadian models love ice and I swear they are always too cold

Definitely a different look on the cmc.

 

 

[H2O]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not buying.  Yet.  Go eat some Turkey yall. 

This is like being told grandma made the stuffing so you know its banger but then in reality aunt gertrude made it with oysters.  Don't trust it yet

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Definitely a different look on the cmc.

 

 

The cmc has upper level energy swing through Tuesday night that changes some areas back to snow. 

For areas NW of DC it would be a snow to ice to rain then back to snow.

Similar to last night's run minus the snow on the backend.

Definitely different than the gfs.

[Ji]

The GFS looks like one of those AI ensemble members

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

The cmc has upper level energy swing through Tuesday night that changes some areas back to snow. 

For areas NW of DC it would be a snow to ice to rain then back to snow.

Similar to last night's run minus the snow on the backend.

Definitely different than the gfs.

6z Euro had the change back to snow too fwiw. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 11/25/2025 at 5:27 PM, 2015Wrx said:

Can you or someone explain/show what we should look for in the Pacific as opposed to what we do not want? I enjoy reading and learning from you all in here.


.

At this time of the year cold air is the most important variable. -EPO is the best pattern for this. This is what the ideal pattern looks like at 500mb:

The 12z GFS kind of has the -EPO pattern, although it's a little SW, which may ultimately create a little more of a SE ridge and a little more mixing or rain where the model currently has snow. Pretty close though.  

[NorthArlington101]

[bncho]

GEFS is very good. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I like how its a more traditional coastal look than just moisture flow from the gulf 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS is very good.