December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Interstate]

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Something like the euro or GGEM is much more in line with the endless drought trend we’re on with weak sauce light precip.

There will be a drought buster here soon...

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

He should be along soon. I sent him a text saying everyone was asking for him. He didn’t know models showed snow haha

Say what?!?

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Say what?!?

Randy lives in the real world. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, it's not as good. Real issue is we just don't get the rates we need to force a flip with marginal temperatures. Need a stronger and sharper vort and we don't get it this run.

This is exactly the theme we have been seeing last few years.   Now with that said we see the potential and we are a little under a week out so changes will be abound good or worse. My expectations are learned to be in check for sure.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

Here we go suppression vs snow and rain classic. I do not think in this set up suppression will be a thing looks progressive up the coast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is Randy?

I think from where we have been 6z GFS was almost "Folks"!!

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think from where we have been 6z GFS was almost "Folks"!!

Happy Hour coming soon

[Twilly05]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You all know damn well you can't have a proper storm without me.

But seriously, been hella busy with work and now down here in South Carolina with fam for Thankskgiving, I really had no idea until Mappy texted me.  Glad I wasn't checking tho..this one seems to be going in the wrong direction?   I dunno, haven't been following.

 

Welcome home Randy!

[Terpeast]

First mention of dec 2 system from LWX

Forecast confidence decreases markedly by Tuesday. On the synoptic
scale a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave trough
encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift northeastward out
of the base of the longwave trough and interact with what should be
a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East Coast. Various
sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large
amount of spread with respect to what will ensue with this system.
Some solutions show large precipitation totals, while others show
little precipitation at all. Some show snow, some show a wintry mix,
and others show plain rain. As is typical, temperatures look to be
colder the further north and west one goes, so those locations have
a greater chance to experience wintry precipitation if it were to
occur. It`s too early to get into details at this point, but this
system will be one to monitor over the next several days, as it has
at least a chance to bring portions of the area their first wintry
precipitation event of the year.

[WEATHER53]

6 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Icon at 120. Big slug of moisture primed in the gulf!!

 

 

Now if that takes an A track over Atlanta then DC looks good and if it cuts and then supposedly transfers we might get some warm front overrunning snow and then drizzle 

[mitchnick]

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

Still stronger at 123 hrs which is translating to a better precip shield than 12z

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

Gonna be way too amped. So EURO and GFS in opposite worlds. 

[mitchnick]

At 126hrs, there's a surface High of 1029 in northern Iowa that wasn't ther at 12z. That's good.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gonna be way too amped. So EURO and GFS in opposite worlds. 

Could be, idk yet. You may be further ahead of me.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mitchnick said:

At 126hrs, there's a surface High of 1029 in northern Iowa that wasn't ther at 12z. That's good.

It’s raining DC at 138, mixy further west. Might flip eventually 

[Terpeast]

Yeah, gfs has been trending more and more amped the last 4-8 runs. Mostly rain for us. We’ll see if this breaks the deamplification trend that’s been around for 2 years, or if that gets us back in the game. 

[winter_warlock]

    What difference 12 hours makes   rainy  this run

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah, gfs has been trending more and more amped the last 4-8 runs. Mostly rain for us

Better TPV push and it might be okay. I like seeing a stronger storm… one day that’ll work out for us. 

[winter_warlock]

The mountains get snow this run 

[mitchnick]

At 120hrs, we're all still in the game. That's really all that can be taken at this point, and that's a decent place to be for a 12/2 threat.

[Solution Man]

Just now, mitchnick said:

At 120hrs, we're all still in the game. That's really all that can be taken at this point, and that a decent place to be for a 12/2 threat.

Yep, we don’t need a major adjustment to get snow

[Terpeast]

Gfs also has two vorts in one system, which it didn’t have before. 

 

Previous run:

 

This tells me that gfs may be struggling to resolve active pieces of energy off the pacific and rounding the bottom of the TPV. We’ll see whether these vorts get consolidated back into one like previously, or whether one vort is “favored” over the other. That can result in big differences in both track and timing, and of course ptype. 

[stormtracker]

Yall drew me in for this shit.  It better deliver. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yall drew me in for this shit.  It better deliver. 

Next Tuesday did not on this run…too amped

[frd]

 

World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc

 

 

Quite excited about this: MJO forecast from the AIFS-ENS, including an in-house 28-day extension. Preliminary skill results are *very* interesting. Available soon to customers.

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yall drew me in for this shit.  It better deliver. 

If you like cold/dry, warm/we…still probably dry, winter 25-26 is probably for you!

[mitchnick]

12/6 2-4"+ on Gfs

[Terpeast]

Fwiw gefs has stronger high this run vs last

[TSSN+]

Rather it show it over amped at this point than under amped. Hard to come back from lack of energy, easier to get it to de amplified