December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Interstate]

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Something like the euro or GGEM is much more in line with the endless drought trend we’re on with weak sauce light precip.

There will be a drought buster here soon...

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

He should be along soon. I sent him a text saying everyone was asking for him. He didn’t know models showed snow haha

Say what?!?

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Say what?!?

Randy lives in the real world. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, it's not as good. Real issue is we just don't get the rates we need to force a flip with marginal temperatures. Need a stronger and sharper vort and we don't get it this run.

This is exactly the theme we have been seeing last few years.   Now with that said we see the potential and we are a little under a week out so changes will be abound good or worse. My expectations are learned to be in check for sure.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

Here we go suppression vs snow and rain classic. I do not think in this set up suppression will be a thing looks progressive up the coast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is Randy?

I think from where we have been 6z GFS was almost "Folks"!!

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think from where we have been 6z GFS was almost "Folks"!!

Happy Hour coming soon

[Twilly05]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You all know damn well you can't have a proper storm without me.

But seriously, been hella busy with work and now down here in South Carolina with fam for Thankskgiving, I really had no idea until Mappy texted me.  Glad I wasn't checking tho..this one seems to be going in the wrong direction?   I dunno, haven't been following.

 

Welcome home Randy!

[Terpeast]

First mention of dec 2 system from LWX

Forecast confidence decreases markedly by Tuesday. On the synoptic
scale a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave trough
encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift northeastward out
of the base of the longwave trough and interact with what should be
a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East Coast. Various
sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large
amount of spread with respect to what will ensue with this system.
Some solutions show large precipitation totals, while others show
little precipitation at all. Some show snow, some show a wintry mix,
and others show plain rain. As is typical, temperatures look to be
colder the further north and west one goes, so those locations have
a greater chance to experience wintry precipitation if it were to
occur. It`s too early to get into details at this point, but this
system will be one to monitor over the next several days, as it has
at least a chance to bring portions of the area their first wintry
precipitation event of the year.

[WEATHER53]

6 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Icon at 120. Big slug of moisture primed in the gulf!!

 

 

Now if that takes an A track over Atlanta then DC looks good and if it cuts and then supposedly transfers we might get some warm front overrunning snow and then drizzle 

[mitchnick]

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

Still stronger at 123 hrs which is translating to a better precip shield than 12z

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

Gonna be way too amped. So EURO and GFS in opposite worlds. 

[mitchnick]

At 126hrs, there's a surface High of 1029 in northern Iowa that wasn't ther at 12z. That's good.