CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why does anyone care what op runs show past day 3-5? It’s all guidance at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s like no one is allowed to enjoy the potential snow Tuesday because an op run shows a day of 38 rain on the 26th. Wild 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 got em 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 25 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 I'd like to see the 23rd come in a bit more robust and further south on other guidance like the Euro has had for a few runs, now that we are within 5 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s like no one is allowed to enjoy the potential snow Tuesday because an op run shows a day of 38 rain on the 26th. Wild Don’t let them steal your joy…this is the problem with social media. Would anybody not enjoy a 75-80 degree day in mid April…because two or three days later it’s gonna rain and be 41? Of course not. Enjoy the moment…f**k what comes later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: I'd like to see the 23rd come in a bit more robust and further south on other guidance like the Euro has had for a few runs, now that we are within 5 days That will happen Monday/Monday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 Not stealing any joy, just saying what it shows. Hopefully it’s all further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not stealing any joy, just saying what it shows. Hopefully it’s all further south. Too much Shabbs in your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not stealing any joy, just saying what it shows. Hopefully it’s all further south. Ahh at this point, it’s(Xmas) far out there…Tuesday is the priority for me. Let’s get that in focus first. But that’s just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Too much Shabbs in your head Too much beer in yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 18z Euro still pretty nice for 12/23. Widespread 1-3”. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Too much beer in yours. You let him sway your ideas and forecasts way too much . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Jesus what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 Just now, weatherwiz said: what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb Clowns gonna clown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb Widespread 90mph near ALB. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: As @jconsorand @dendriteposted today.. The typically conservative hi res models showing such big numbers should be noted That’s not really what I said. I meant that they are more conservative than the typical weenie gust maps. They are still often a little too high…just not as bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 From what I’ve been seeing, the upcoming pattern post Christmas looks to be one of the most effed up convoluted patterns I can recall. We have a southeast ridge from Hell that looks to be established by the storm pattern shifting to our north. I’m also seeing storms that come out of the southwest with an injection of energy out westerlies coming around the south side of the se ridge. Wtf… good luck figuring out any consistent storm pattern. i still see a shot at a white Christmas with that storm popping up on the 23-25th. C/NNE have a shot at some wintry precip later this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb Probs not far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: 7 days out…op runs…might as well be a month out. This morning the runs looked great. 12z not so much. Gonna waffle…especially in this type of set up. Gonna be all over the place the next few days. All I care about is whatever happens between tomorrow’s cutter and 11:59:59pm on 12/25. After that, I’ll look at the longer range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb Wtf is Maue doing with that product? Pivotal has the actual model derived 10m gusts and it’s nothing close to that at that time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb 95 mph max. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 18, 2025 Share Posted December 18, 2025 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Widespread 90mph near ALB. lol For a second I thought we were looking at a tropical system somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Wtf is Maue doing with that product? Pivotal has the actual model derived 10m gusts and it’s nothing close to that at that time. Yeah something is definitely up with how he's pulling the data or processing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Widespread 90mph near ALB. lol Cut everything by 50% and it’s will be closer to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: That will happen Monday/Monday night lol. No one knows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not stealing any joy, just saying what it shows. Hopefully it’s all further south. Steal it all! Take their potential snowy joy and shatter it like a delicate tea cup, on a frigid, dry, January night. bwah, ha ha ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Cut everything by 50% and it’s will be closer to reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 Comes down to rain and mixing. If it rains it lowers temps and limits mixing. Ideally you want a break between 11-3p, but they’ll be times of downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2025 Share Posted December 19, 2025 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: We’ll see, but I’ll take the under. Which is easy to do in the valley anyway. I hope Kevin can rip some 50-60 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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