December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Messy 23-24th system on the Euro.

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

The 27-29 period looks like it could be interesting 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

I’d rather ride the line here than be in Missouri with no hope. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The 27-29 period looks like it could be interesting 

While the longwave pattern is kind of ugly (and it’s an unstable look), the shear number of shortwaves flying through the flow will give us some chances. So while the probability of any one of these succeeding in being a 4”+ snow event is pretty low, if we have several chances, maybe one of them delivers. 
 

Most of us would be fine with a couple inches that gets us to Christmas but once the holiday has passed, I want some bigger systems. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

While the longwave pattern is kind of ugly (and it’s an unstable look), the shear number of shortwaves flying through the flow will give us some chances. So while the probability of any one of these succeeding in being a 4”+ snow event is pretty low, if we have several chances, maybe one of them delivers. 
 

Most of us would be fine with a couple inches that gets us to Christmas but once the holiday has passed, I want some bigger systems. 

Yeah I agree, I definitely would like to start getting some bigger systems, but if we can pull off a good two week stretch where we get 3-4 systems in the 2-4" range...I would hope that makes everyone a bit happier lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well this isn't fair. Damn you Idaho 

I bet a marginal goes up for us on Friday... wouldn't be shocked. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I bet a marginal goes up for us on Friday... wouldn't be shocked. 

I could see a marginal get thrown up for far eastern CT/RI/SE MA. the NAM would certainly argue it but sometimes the NAM gets a little overzealous with elevated in stability in these setups. NAM does have a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates (and greater CAPE) but I think its overdone in that regard. The key for eastern areas will be little to no shower activity ahead of the main area

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you provide data to prove me wrong?  Give me low first halves and final totals vs climo.

Also, to clarify what you quoted-I want to be sure you understand that I’m saying a low snow first half correlates with a low snow winter.

No, I agree a low first half of a season correlates with a low season in general...what I am saying is that a very low December is a much more dire signal in a cool ENSO season than in a warm ENSO.

Side note...that response sounded more abrasive than I intended...wasn't trying to be a dick. 

[radarman]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I agree, I definitely would like to start getting some bigger systems, but if we can pull off a good two week stretch where we get 3-4 systems in the 2-4" range...I would hope that makes everyone a bit happier lol. 

I doubt it would.  

It isn't about hitting climo averages.  I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring.  I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I agree, I definitely would like to start getting some bigger systems, but if we can pull off a good two week stretch where we get 3-4 systems in the 2-4" range...I would hope that makes everyone a bit happier lol. 

Absolutely. 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I doubt it would.  

It isn't about hitting climo averages.  I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring.  I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

I love a high frequency of smaller events. Pack sustained and always looking fresh

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

I would take that in a heartbeat. I'm not nearly as greedy in the lead up to Christmas...in January you can F right off with that. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

I doubt it would.  

It isn't about hitting climo averages.  I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring.  I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

4 months? Lol

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I doubt it would.  

It isn't about hitting climo averages.  I think most would sign for a 3 footer and then spring.  I'd sign for 1" a day for the next 4 mos myself.

My recommendation for those people then would be to move to the Sierra's or Cascades lol. I mean if we're active with 3-4" events and people are still complaining then something is wrong. Surely we all want the big storm but there has to be some sort of realistic expectation too. 

[weathafella]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

4 months? Lol

Winter finally ends April 17th…

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Fozz said:

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

2032.

[weatherwiz]

I hope its 85F on April 17 so I can watch playoff hockey outside with just a jersey on 

[radarman]

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

4 months? Lol

 

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Winter finally ends April 17th…

Tell me it's not winter while you're freezing to death on east winds at Fenway

[Great Snow 1717]

Folks look on the bright side!!...only 2 more weeks until one of the most if not the most boring year for weather comes to an end..

[ineedsnow]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Winter finally ends April 17th…

ended mid April here last year

[dryslot]

It amazes me how you can lock a cutter weeks in advance.

[brooklynwx99]

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

The stratosphere is certainly going to try and help get us a favorable Arctic domain. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

That pattern still makes me ill. Of course somehow we have this massive central US ridge amid a massive Bering Sea ridge and Greenland ridge. 
 

Honestly, we’d be much better off with a SE ridge with that depiction,  but somehow we have the Elephant Man look in the US. 

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It amazes me how you can lock a cutter weeks in advance.

You got alotta room to cut. Cut it to Pittsburgh, cut it to Lake Michigan, cut it to Chicago. It’s all cutters all the same

[dryslot]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

You got alotta room to cut. Cut it to Pittsburgh, cut it to Lake Michigan, cut it to Chicago. It’s all cutters all the same

You would still think you could get one of these to get squashed south on occasions but with no HP or lower heights out ahead, Nope.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That pattern still makes me ill. Of course somehow we have this massive central US ridge amid a massive Bering Sea ridge and Greenland ridge. 
 

Honestly, we’d be much better off with a SE ridge with that depiction,  but somehow we have the Elephant Man look in the US. 

story of the last few years. one would have to hope that:

1) the Bering Sea ridge ticks east more into AK so you can get a bit of a ridge bridge going, or 

2) the -NAO becomes stronger and more west based, shifting that ridge west along with it (also allowing for more of a ridge bridge)

we have also seen models consistently overdo E US heights, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a trough trend deeper as we head closer. we'll see

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west

Honestly, are there any analogs that have that look? I can’t recall that. It reminds me of those stagnant farts that just stays in the room and doesn’t disperse. Just persistent ass.

[brooklynwx99]

these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing

for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, are there any analogs that have that look? I can’t recall that. It reminds me of those stagnant farts that just stays in the room and doesn’t disperse. Just persistent ass.

nah i can't, which is why I think things are going to be one or the other. either more of a trough over the NE or warmer like the old GEPS runs. that's a weird in between