December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs trying for the 12th.

Nice little storm there.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs went from flaccid to powder keg look on one run. Lol

[kazimirkai]

Personally I'd rather it be cold with no snow than warm with no snow. At least the ponds are frozen and I can visit the mountains to get a dose of winter when I need. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs went from flaccid to powder keg look on one run. Lol

Well being 6 days out, thats expected. 18z it’ll show it in the lakes, or not at all.  Wish it was a little closer in with regard to time…6 days is a long ways off. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping it materializes for the 12th (vs the 13th)

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well being 6 days out, thats expected. 18z it’ll show it in the lakes, or not at all.  Wish it was a little closer in with regard to time…6 days is a long ways off. 

Oh I just meant the overall look, not that particular storm.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right. This is the kind of stuff that’s a little crazy. Snowcover data is a very factual, as is data point. It’s not subjective. You can’t not believe it.

You can make the argument our ceiling might be higher on a smaller scale, but, yeah, the snow cover decline is real, and we feel it 

The 80’s had very little snowcover bro..it just didn’t snow.  So you believe what you want.  You’ve had quite a few years there, that when a tick farted..you’d pull 10” to cover the mulch beds. So whatever. 
 

The 12th delivering some snow would be nice for all of us. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I just meant the overall look, not that particular storm.

Oh ok…well that sounds good. I think that’s the theme here..lots of energy bouncing around, with cold in place and nearby, we gotta just see if we get one or two to play ball. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I guess we should be patient.  This is kind of similar to how December played out in 2010 before Boxing Day delivered for many of us.

funny you proffer this sentiment as conciliatory ... I've recently been thinking this exact same "patience" idea, but had 2014-2015 in mind, actually...   

What happened that late Dec ( after Xmas was wrapped up and tidily ruined with panache ...), is we started getting this torpedo flow with big cold situated just N of our latitude. Systems were riding along the ambient b-c axis, and we did go through about a 10 day to two-week period where we bit cold, followed by quick warm ups to rain...cold, rinse and repeat.  I remember posting a sentiment that it was like "playing with fire"  - interesting metaphor considering the 'fire' in the context of the times meant that should any of those wave get under our latitude, would make for a sudden change to a whole new world.   Well .... oops.  Things started going under our latitude - fine idea, then, but ... knowing when that's going to happen, if at all?    yeah - 

patience perhaps...  The problem with patience is that nature does not reward for good virtue.  That's a human construct.  I combat that by just tuning out - glancing at charts here and there for quick diagnosis', and also just to stay in sequence of events.  That way I have a sense of knowing when things may finally break right, while at the same time I didn't give the prurient "real" god any satisfaction of having stolen life  LOL. 

[kdxken]

Pretty nice flurries here in Appalachia 

 

[512high]

About 1/4" temp jumped from 26F to 29F in the last hour...festive

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I guess we should be patient.  This is kind of similar to how December played out in 2010 before Boxing Day delivered for many of us.

Yes, sometimes these patterns take some time to come into their own so to speak, for our area at least.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

For now, the GFS is on an island.. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For now, the GFS is on an island.. 

Well, the Euro really isnt any better so at least we have one model. It’s gonna bounce around.  It’s a ways off anyway. We know the game. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For now, the GFS is on an island.. 

of misfit toys. Nobody wants a GFS snowstorm. 

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

How many posts of Mjo, JB, and Steve D will it take for you to realize it’s still bare there?

The voodoo of MJO plots can be lumped into the likes of tarriffs and corporate tax breaks....

[CoastalWx]

Canadian has something too. Probably timing differences, but the EPS was just a day or less later.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

The voodoo of MJO plots can be lumped into the likes of tarriffs and corporate tax breaks....

MJO is real, but it’s a lot more complicated then just showing those charts.

[Cobalt]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The 80’s had very little snowcover bro..it just didn’t snow.  So you believe what you want.  

Snow was sparse, but those winters were on average much colder than than the below average snowfall winters of recent. A colder/dryer look versus the warmer that we've become accustomed to. The warmest winter in all of the 80s for the Northeast would've been the 4th coldest of the past 10 years. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Chestnuts blighted, and catching fire
Jack shit amounts of snow
Yore-like snow maps, being sent by a weenie
And folks dressed up like Key Largo

Everybody knows, some toucans and forsythia
Helps to make the season right
Weenie cops, obsessed with MJO
Will find it hard to sleep tonight

They know the Grinch storm, is on its way
It’s melting lots of ice and snowmen in just a day
And every mother plays, John Mayer on a drive
As the temp and dewpoint, both hit fifty-five

 

This is funny, and depressingly accurate. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. Where’s Sarah McLachlan when I need her?

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MJO is real, but it’s a lot more complicated then just showing those charts.

Oh I know, just some jest on this morning as I frolick in my 0.4" of fresh snow before it disappears within the hour. Those plot look great, but seem to never pan out over the past few years. Definitely raise more questions than answers it seems...

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian has something too. Probably timing differences, but the EPS was just a day or less later.

Colder version of what we just had a few days ago....most would take that look at this point, we all want the biggie, but at this point give me 3-6, with some cold to follow. Reminds me a bit of the systems from the early 2000s, just weaker.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Colder version of what we just had a few days ago....most would take that look at this point, we all want the biggie, but at this point give me 3-6, with some cold to follow. Reminds me a bit of the systems from the early 2000s, just weaker.

It’s early still I know, but personally I could use an advisory to help with things. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s early still I know, but personally I could use an advisory to help with things. 

For sure. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Colder version of what we just had a few days ago....most would take that look at this point, we all want the biggie, but at this point give me 3-6, with some cold to follow. Reminds me a bit of the systems from the early 2000s, just weaker.

A colder version of Tuesday’s deal would be fine with me. Had alot of freezing rain Tuesday..turn a lot of that to snow, and I’d be happy. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Snow was sparse, but those winters were on average much colder than than the below average snowfall winters of recent. A colder/dryer look versus the warmer that we've become accustomed to. The warmest winter in all of the 80s for the Northeast would've been the 4th coldest of the past 10 years. 

I’ll gladly take what we’ve had the last 30 years or so(milder or whatever)…than that BS from the 80’s.
 

 It’s gonna snow…And will continue to snow.   Let’s see what happens in the present over the next few weeks…that’s all that matters to me.  

[LSC97wxnut]

Quick coating from the snow showers coming through.

Very pretty.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right. This is the kind of stuff that’s a little crazy. Snowcover data is a very factual, as is data point. It’s not subjective. You can’t not believe it.

You can make the argument our ceiling might be higher on a smaller scale, but, yeah, the snow cover decline is real, and we feel it 

Never underestimate americans…

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For now, the GFS is on an island.. 

I guess the Canadian joined the island…I know CMC lol…but at least it’s another piece of guidance joining in. 

[Lava Rock]

Lt sn. 18F. Looks and feels like January

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