December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z Euro was trying to get some snow into SNE early Saturday....not much, maybe a C-1"...not really buying it. Maybe a few flurries. 

Please don't Dec 89 us ugh 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I went back starting at the 12z run on 11/27..and the Euro actually was pretty close with the track. However, thermals and storm intensity, especially between 11/28-11/30 were way off.  Not sure why it would do well with the track and suck at everything else. Going to be a fun winter. 

I noted that right before the storm started....the Euro was really going to get the W on the track, but it was just awful with the thermals. The whole system was pretty weird though. If you had told me before the storm started that the only information you would give me is that I would spend almost the entire storm below freezing, I would have at minimum expected snow to be overproducing in a very large swath of SNE.....but instead it was actually fairly underwhelming. Having low pretty decently SE with good ageo northeryl drain but yet we were ripping 925mb from the south relentlessly to the point of overperofming on warmth at that level....didn't have that on my bingo card.

Typically I'd expect that type of track to have the warm nose way up at 750mb or something. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I went back starting at the 12z run on 11/27..and the Euro actually was pretty close with the track. However, thermals and storm intensity, especially between 11/28-11/30 were way off.  Not sure why it would do well with the track and suck at everything else. Going to be a fun winter. 

What blew my mind with the Euro was how it ignored the mid layer heater.  But what also never happens is a deep low passing way south and east not closing off 7h 8h and allowing warmth to blow so far inland. 

Great call by Scooter.  Tip of the Yankee cap

 

[weatherwiz]

That jet is going to be absolutely cranking 

It's not an awful look either around mid-month...window may be small but there is certainly some chance

Getting anything to phase in that will be difficult but you could feasibly have a shot to get some PV interaction and before you know it, you have a good signal for cyclogenesis in our hood. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

The pattern seems like it's about to recycle what we've just gone through the past two or three weeks, it's not sure what exactly to focus on yet but there's lots of players on the field at least. Let's hope climo help some others out as we move forward. AND I need to stop typing and get some sleep! I'm not even sure if what I'm typing makes any sense

Yeah some of these events we had didn't show up well on guidance all that well until D7 or so. It's the type of flow that probably isn't easy on guidance with so much energy and then dealing with a stout -NAO block. Hopefully one of these can produce.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

The pattern seems like it's about to recycle what we've just gone through the past two or three weeks, it's not sure what exactly to focus on yet but there's lots of players on the field at least. Let's hope climo help some others out as we move forward. AND I need to stop typing and get some sleep! I'm not even sure if what I'm typing makes any sense

Better climo, though...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That jet is going to be absolutely cranking 

It's not an awful look either around mid-month...window may be small but there is certainly some chance

Getting anything to phase in that will be difficult but you could feasibly have a shot to get some PV interaction and before you know it, you have a good signal for cyclogenesis in our hood. 

Really a nice couple inches would be nice. How much did you get? Are you still in West Hartford? 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Better climo, though...

Yeah, add 10 days of climo to yesterday's event and it looks a lot different from a sensible wx standpoint...that 1C mattered a lot for a good chunk of the storm. 

The pattern looks a bit colder anyway even if you adjust for climo. Not a good pattern to try and get a phased nuke....but these northern stream impulses can sometimes produce pretty nicely for us if we can get one of them to line up. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The 10th to 11th starting to look like dung now. Hope it comes back. 

yeah ... this 'dunging' actually started stinking up the charts some two days ago...

You know, it's possible that we're going to end up compression cooked for decent events through the remainder of this blessed pattern - although philosophically, the pattern is not good if it does not actually deliver.  I guess technically ...this thing yesterday was a delivery, because it was only December 2 ..etc.etc.   But a lot was robbed from it.  So it's like bad aftertaste.

I just gotta say this... I've noticed that over the last 10 to 15 years (  it sort of really began way back during and post the supernino of 1998, but has become more coherently noticeable over recent decades) whenever the local hemisphere moves toward a necessarily cold enough one for snow, the flow is fucking way too cleanly structure storms.  These systems are weirdly racing through the height tapestry like there's less Y (North-South) forcing, and an abundance of X (West to East). Something in the physics appears to be offsetting the Y, and giving it to the X.  But that causes these wonky shredded piece of shits with anomalous results.  Some produce, sure, but when they do... people aren't noticing things as much - that I can tell - because they're preoccupied in their d-drip of the moment.

This last event ass banged everyone and they don't even know it. For example, because people saw snow out the window ( I realize you didn't down there but by and large) there's some tendency for satisfaction to suspend any deeper analysis; the heaviest quantitative precipitation (QP) avoided the snow columns of the soundings.  Another example, there were vague at best jet intersections associated with the classic/textbook cyclone model; this is because the speed soaked progressive nature of the basal flow is keeping these waves from mechanically inducing them.  It's really technical, but if the translation rate (time variable) exceeds the intergral of the Coriolis parameter, this is why the X coordinate is overwhelming the Y (above). Thus, systems have difficulty curving surfaces - Coriolis is the whole reason storms rotate. Without those "structural integrity", you end up with idiosyncratic aspects - like some kind of blade of 900 mb S flow that was no where else in the atmosphere. haha... might be exaggeration there but in principle -

Simple version of all that: the speed of the flow is negating the ability to curve - or circulate as much. 

Anyway, disrupted structures as an observation is becoming the almost dependable storm profile when it gets cold.

CC is going to continue fucking people and it is not going away.  Meanwhile, many will dismiss it and blame it on something else, if they are even aware something's off.  Enter any myriad of reasons for their misconception here [           ].  Whether we want to admit, understand and get it, ...regardless of anything, the new paradigm is here. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really a nice couple inches would be nice. How much did you get? Are you still in West Hartford? 

I've been up in Springfield (northeast of downtown) for the last 3 years or so (but getting back to Connecticut hopefully sometime soon). I ended up with 4" which was right on the upper end of what I was anticipating over the weekend. The way it was going yesterday I thought I'd have a shot for maybe 6-7" but as soon as I mentioned that, the snow stopped and we went to freezing rain. Probably got close to 1/10" of accretion. 

But yup...if we can muster up multiple 2-3" events in the next few weeks, that starts adding up quickly.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What blew my mind with the Euro was how it ignored the mid layer heater.  But what also never happens is a deep low passing way south and east not closing off 7h 8h and allowing warmth to blow so far inland. 

Great call by Scooter.  Tip of the Yankee cap

 

I mostly focused around here. Too many times over the last four seasons have I seen a shitty lower 2000’ column. 
 

I actually thought Ray might do well yesterday when I saw how cold it was, but I underestimated that middle finger racing north above 950. That was wild. I think Kevin got a coating last night but satellite is wild just to his west. Can see the pack. 

[weatherwiz]

Did someone mention about snow showers tomorrow? Wouldn't be surprised to see some heavier snow showers move through, probably mainly up to about 91 though and far NW CT, as well as SNH into NE MA

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cold over the weekend.  Single digit lows

[Damage In Tolland]

I’d be happy with just an inch or two to help this weather frustration/ depression . If we can’t do that over the next two weeks in this pattern , something is very wrong 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d be happy with just an inch or two to help this weather frustration/ depression . If we can’t do that over the next two weeks in this pattern , something is very wrong 

Did you get anything last night?

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Did someone mention about snow showers tomorrow? Wouldn't be surprised to see some heavier snow showers move through, probably mainly up to about 91 though and far NW CT, as well as SNH into NE MA

Yes that's a powerful Arctic front

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d be happy with just an inch or two to help this weather frustration/ depression . If we can’t do that over the next two weeks in this pattern , something is very wrong 

Don't read Tip's post for your own sanity. Unfortunately, makes too much sense. 

[Lava Rock]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d be happy with just an inch or two to help this weather frustration/ depression . If we can’t do that over the next two weeks in this pattern , something is very wrong 

buy a small snow maker for your yard. Plenty of cold coming. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Yes that's a powerful Arctic front

These more often that not have some sort of wintry precip ahead of them. Sometimes even more widespread than guidance will indicate too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Did someone mention about snow showers tomorrow? Wouldn't be surprised to see some heavier snow showers move through, probably mainly up to about 91 though and far NW CT, as well as SNH into NE MA

maybe others did as well but I mentioned I think on Monday that the models were looking rather squally associated with that arctic front.  May even be WINDEX sounding but I didn't particularly look.  Looked to time rather comically timed for the evening commute heh.  I was reminded a bit of the 2003 metrowest gridlock event from a 33F morning commute, perfectly timed squalls that greased 128, then the temp free fell through the 20s and what ensue was tantamount to a demographic nightmare - possibly a historic event from but 1" of melted snow --> flash freeze.   I think it was grid lock for 4 hours of something spousal abusing

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe others did as well but I mentioned I think on Monday that the models were looking rather squally associated with that arctic front.  May even be WINDEX sounding but I didn't particularly look.  

Might be a bit stronger WINDEX signal back across north-central New York towards Albany. A quick look doesn't seem to be the case around here but could certainly see some heavier snow showers whiten things up quickly. Would be like mid-to-late afternoon too so definitely localized travel impacts possible

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't read Tip's post for your own sanity. Unfortunately, makes too much sense. 

It’s wayyyy more difficult to achieve coherent cyclones with a hyper fast flow. It’s a real turd in the punch bowl.

[TalcottWx]

Very wintry. 3" to start the season off. We take it.

[weatherwiz]

Not often you see MET exceed MAV

[weathafella]

Getting back to earlier in the thread-in the years I’ve been posting, I’ve never put anyone on ignore. Reading posts I don’t like is part of the fun.  

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did you get anything last night?

1/4 “

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't read Tip's post for your own sanity. Unfortunately, makes too much sense. 

The long ones we skim

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like they’ve been high before too

might be that I didn't actually measure here, and what I saw was already compacted. Plus from what I am seeing online, reports 8-9" all around here. so it could be correct, and I could certainly be wrong.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The long ones we skim

yeah just ranting a bit this morning.  This last storm was an offset bust. It annoyed me. Also, commenting that less folk seem to notice when these partial offset pieces of shit storms happen - which I argue is most of them in recent years. I think it's because they saw it snowing at all  - not you.. I get it.  Heh, you were probably circumstantially/uniquely screwed based on what you were describing yesterday. Anyway, and that suspends their analysis

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah just ranting a bit this morning.  This last storm was an offset bust. It annoyed me. Also, commenting that less folk seem to notice when these partial offset pieces of shit storms happen - which I argue is most of them in recent years. I think it's because they saw it snowing at all  - not you.. I get it.  Heh, you were probably circumstantially/uniquely screwed based on what you were describing yesterday. Anyway, and that suspends their analysis

I can take getting ram rodded in the shed . It happens with wx and I get it. Usually I find some way to get at least some snow or ice here. 32 point something all day with rain . But this one spread both cheeks wide open , and inserted the weed whacker and then turned it on.