December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

 

Rain to PA

 

[[email protected]]

27 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

You are more annoying then Tony saying every winter storm threat will snow and "we track".

@MJO812

And what do you bring to the table?

[the_other_guy]

58 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Dude, the western ski resorts are dying for snow. They are off to their worst start in years. They have highway signs that say “pray for snow” Are you even aware what is going on out there?

 

 

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, [email protected] said:

At least seven straight year of it raining at some point on NYE! Last time it snowed, I believe, was 2009.

You might want to fact check your knowledge before posting about it non stop...

[psv88]

50 today. Solar panels back in action baby

[the_other_guy]

Out of the next 14 days, a handful of days look at or below normal. The rest are AN. That means any storm is going to have to manufacture cold air…something we havent done well around here in a while.

Its exciting to talk about threats and such, but I think you should keep that in mind. 

[vegan_edible]

40 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Dude, the western ski resorts are dying for snow. They are off to their worst start in years. They have highway signs that say “pray for snow” Are you even aware what is going on out there?

 

 

he's been saying this for days now. the storms crashing into the west coast are giving sf some rain lmao. utah, colorado, idaho, wyoming resorts are torched and dry as a bone

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

he's been saying this for days now. the storms crashing into the west coast are giving sf some rain lmao. utah, colorado, idaho, wyoming resorts are torched and dry as a bone

Yeah this just is not a cold pattern for the west at all really.  The Bering Sea ridge and subsequent trof are too far west.  Its a fine line for them, a 700 mile shift east would produce December 1990 results for them but as of now too much Pac air is getting into that trof so they're just not cold and won't be any time soon

[donsutherland1]

A soaking rain will develop tonight with a storm total 0.50"-1.50" rain likely across the region by the time the storm pulls away late tomorrow. The wind could also gust past 50 mph producing some coastal flooding and beach erosion. It will also be unseasonably mild tomorrow with highs reaching the lower and middle 50s. 

Behind the storm, the weekend will turn somewhat cooler. No exceptionally cold or warm weather appears likely for the first week of astronomical winter.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° has continued to increase. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -2.23 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.676 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[[email protected]]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

You might want to fact check your knowledge before posting about it non stop...

 

[North and West]

I see that everyone is in a Holly Jolly mood a week before Christmas.


.

[[email protected]]

1 minute ago, [email protected] said:

 

I thought that there was measurable precipitation on 12/31/23? If not, it's six out of the 7 years. 

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Dude, the western ski resorts are dying for snow. They are off to their worst start in years. They have highway signs that say “pray for snow” Are you even aware what is going on out there?

 

 

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat 

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat 

it would need to be a drastic drastic change

[Krs4Lfe]

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

[ag3]

Beautiful day today. High of 52.3 on my station.

[WestBabylonWeather]

38 minutes ago, North and West said:

I see that everyone is in a Holly Jolly mood a week before Christmas.


.

 

[North and West]

 

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[uofmiami]

48 at both my stations for the high today. 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, [email protected] said:

I thought that there was measurable precipitation on 12/31/23? If not, it's six out of the 7 years. 

Sorry but try again. A trace isn't considered measurable by the NWS.

You started by saying 9 in a row multiple times, then 7 now your down to 5

[wthrmn654]

Dam that line is fierce.  2 squall lines just merged into 1 down in Tennessee. 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Crazy line showing up on velocity! 

[wthrmn654]

59 at 709 cst and it's now 52 in 3 mintues potent!

[[email protected]]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

Sorry but try again. A trace isn't considered measurable by the NWS.

You started by saying 9 in a row multiple times, then 7 now your down to 5

You seem to be obsessed with me.

[SACRUS]

 

HIghs:  Max for the month (so far)

 

TEB: 54
New Brnswck: 53
EWR: 51
LGA: 51
TTN: 51
JFK: 50
ISP: 50
NYC: 49

[MANDA]

When I'm wrong I'll admit it.  I was not expecting this 10-14 days ago for Christmas week.  Was expecting a relaxation of the cold but nothing like this nearly coast to coast torch.  Euro EPS did well sniffing it out.  GFS was not even close to reality.  I was expecting a relaxation of the cold Christmas week but then a return to significantly colder between Christmas and New Year's.  Not happening.

[Krs4Lfe]

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

When I'm wrong I'll admit it.  I was not expecting this 10-14 days ago for Christmas week.  Was expecting a relaxation of the cold but nothing like this nearly coast to coast torch.  Euro EPS did well sniffing it out.  GFS was was not even close to reality.  I was expecting a relaxation of the cold Christmas week but then a return to significantly colder between Christmas and New Year's.  Not happening.

This torch is very impressive and will result in many places in south where the anomalies have been ip to -8 so far to average near normal. The only place that will remain relatively average through end of the month is the northeast. Rest of US is in a big torch and the worst part is it doesn’t show signs of changing either. It will be impossible, mark my words, impossible, to get snow in this area with such warmth across CONUS. Any storm that comes into the west coast will be too warm like this past one, with snow confined to the far northern tier. And side from an occasional rain storm, most of the country will remain dry. Even reminiscent of Winter 2020 in that respect, where no one outside of the western 1/4th of country had much snow. And this season, even they don’t have any snow. This is also similar to mid December 2023 through early January 2024, where there was a coast to coast torch. One week into January 2024, that all changes though. However, this appears to be a very persistent pattern that will last into the forseeable future. 

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

When I'm wrong I'll admit it.  I was not expecting this 10-14 days ago for Christmas week.  Was expecting a relaxation of the cold but nothing like this nearly coast to coast torch.  Euro EPS did well sniffing it out.  GFS was was not even close to reality.  I was expecting a relaxation of the cold Christmas week but then a return to significantly colder between Christmas and New Year's.  Not happening.

Historic warmth in a Nina December, it’s a climate emergency

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

When I'm wrong I'll admit it.  I was not expecting this 10-14 days ago for Christmas week.  Was expecting a relaxation of the cold but nothing like this nearly coast to coast torch.  Euro EPS did well sniffing it out.  GFS was was not even close to reality.  I was expecting a relaxation of the cold Christmas week but then a return to significantly colder between Christmas and New Year's.  Not happening.

Was always obvious the second half of Dec would be a CONUS-wide blowtorch, unless if you have no pattern recognition ability whatsoever.