[email protected] Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 41 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 29 / 21 warm the next 3 days Wed - Fri with perhaps some of the warmest areas touching or close to 60 on Friday, otherwise mid/upper 50s. Overnight Thu into Fri upto an inch of rain. Colder Saturday - warmer Sunday- then back down Mon - tue before warming Chirstmas eve. Overall looking warmer between Christmas and the 30th with strong nationwide ridge perhaps a day in there that approach 60 / record high?. Colder air just to the north and the warmest is to the south west. Still would watch the period 12/30-31. Wash, rinse, repeat! Same holidays pattern as always! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 45 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 29 / 21 warm the next 3 days Wed - Fri with perhaps some of the warmest areas touching or close to 60 on Friday, otherwise mid/upper 50s. Overnight Thu into Fri upto an inch of rain. Colder Saturday - warmer Sunday- then back down Mon - tue before warming Chirstmas eve. Overall looking warmer between Christmas and the 30th with strong nationwide ridge perhaps a day in there that approach 60 / record high?. Colder air just to the north and the warmest is to the south west. Still would watch the period 12/30-31. With the NAO negative - the WPO Negative and MJO hanging around somewhere in Phase 8 - how do you get anywhere close to 60 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Can we please make this a thing. Thanks. dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land. Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast 1 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land. Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast nothing like posting some evidence to back up your guess........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land. Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast Based off what ? 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: All we can say is that the first 16 days of December have been one of our coldest 16 day periods relative to the means of the 2020s so far. The clipper was a nice contribution to this period feeling very wintry around the area. This was actually the coldest first half of December in 20 years. The new Newark records for December now go back to 1850. So this was ranked 26th coldest which is very respectable in our warmer 2020s climate. The current 7 station departure across the area is -7.7. With the moderation coming up next few weeks, the final number this month may finish in the -3 to -4 range. Models have been fluctuating from run to so we won’t know the exact number for a weeks. EWR…..-8.1 NYC……-8.7 LGA……-8.7 JFK…….-7.8 HPN……-7.6 BDR…...-7.9 ISP……..-5.4 AVG…….-7.7 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coldest 12-01 to 12-16 periods Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1867-12-16 24.1 5 2 1904-12-16 24.6 0 3 1910-12-16 25.5 0 4 1917-12-16 25.7 4 5 1876-12-16 27.0 5 6 1868-12-16 27.3 3 7 1958-12-16 27.9 0 - 1871-12-16 27.9 1 8 1902-12-16 28.6 0 9 1989-12-16 28.8 0 - 1869-12-16 28.8 4 10 1860-12-16 28.9 2 11 1880-12-16 29.0 3 12 1895-12-16 29.1 2 13 1859-12-16 29.4 4 14 1886-12-16 29.5 4 15 1882-12-16 29.7 2 16 1915-12-16 29.8 1 17 1903-12-16 30.0 0 - 1872-12-16 30.0 2 18 2005-12-16 30.4 0 19 1976-12-16 30.6 0 20 1854-12-16 30.8 3 21 1898-12-16 31.0 0 22 1937-12-16 31.1 0 23 1942-12-16 31.2 0 24 1875-12-16 31.4 0 25 1851-12-16 31.7 4 26 2025-12-16 31.8 0 - 1945-12-16 31.8 0 Backed off your -2 to -3 finish from last week I see. We’ll probably finish around -5 when the month is done, as bulk of the warmth stays to our S&W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land. Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast Damn who screwed up your breakfast order... happy holidays to you too I'll take the under on 50's after Friday. Seeing a lot of lows in the 20's though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago GFS is interesting for christmas eve and especially Christmas day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: GFS is interesting for christmas eve and especially Christmas day! Euro - within the last few days was also suggesting something similar but that negative NAO and the strength of it and the HP position in southeast Canada along with the warmer air trying to attack it could set up a gradient/overunning event somewhere in the Northeast and or Mid- Atlantic - example it might be in the 50's in Richmond and closer to 32 in NYC - we don't know yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 35 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Backed off your -2 to -3 finish from last week I see. We’ll probably finish around -5 when the month is done, as bulk of the warmth stays to our S&W. Not backing off much at all really. The difference between a -3 to -4 from 2 to -3 in a long range forecast is pretty much statistical noise. The EPS is around a 0 to +1 the rest of the month. So that would yield a 7 station average of around -3 to -4 from the current -7.7. Long Island is running a little warmer and is only -5.5 at ISP through the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Where's the sun? Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not backing off much at all really. The difference between a -3 to -4 from 2 to -3 in a long range forecast is pretty much statistical noise. The EPS is around a 0 to +1 the rest of the month. So that would yield a 7 station average of around -3 to -4 from the current -7.7. Long Island is running a little warmer and is only -5.5 at ISP through the 16th. Latest Weekly has cooled off for next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Latest Weekly has cooled off for next week. We have been getting the windshield wiper effect from run to run. Some runs a little over and other runs a little under. So with the warm up coming the next several days, my guess for December 17 to 31 will be near 0 to +1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 2 hours ago, bluewave said: All we can say is that the first 16 days of December have been one of our coldest 16 day periods relative to the means of the 2020s so far. The clipper was a nice contribution to this period feeling very wintry around the area. This was actually the coldest first half of December in 20 years. The new Newark records for December now go back to 1850. So this was ranked 26th coldest which is very respectable in our warmer 2020s climate. The current 7 station departure across the area is -7.7. With the moderation coming up next few weeks, the final number this month may finish in the -3 to -4 range. Models have been fluctuating from run to so we won’t know the exact number for a weeks. EWR…..-8.1 NYC……-8.7 LGA……-8.7 JFK…….-7.8 HPN……-7.6 BDR…...-7.9 ISP……..-5.4 AVG…….-7.7 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coldest 12-01 to 12-16 periods Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1867-12-16 24.1 5 2 1904-12-16 24.6 0 3 1910-12-16 25.5 0 4 1917-12-16 25.7 4 5 1876-12-16 27.0 5 6 1868-12-16 27.3 3 7 1958-12-16 27.9 0 - 1871-12-16 27.9 1 8 1902-12-16 28.6 0 9 1989-12-16 28.8 0 - 1869-12-16 28.8 4 10 1860-12-16 28.9 2 11 1880-12-16 29.0 3 12 1895-12-16 29.1 2 13 1859-12-16 29.4 4 14 1886-12-16 29.5 4 15 1882-12-16 29.7 2 16 1915-12-16 29.8 1 17 1903-12-16 30.0 0 - 1872-12-16 30.0 2 18 2005-12-16 30.4 0 19 1976-12-16 30.6 0 20 1854-12-16 30.8 3 21 1898-12-16 31.0 0 22 1937-12-16 31.1 0 23 1942-12-16 31.2 0 24 1875-12-16 31.4 0 25 1851-12-16 31.7 4 26 2025-12-16 31.8 0 - 1945-12-16 31.8 0 Dang, only 3 of the top 25 are in my lifetime. We missed the best Decembers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Where's the sun? Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Dang, only 3 of the top 25 are in my lifetime. We missed the best Decembers. December 1917 was the inverse of December 2015. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 1917Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 728 526 - - 933 0 3.52 23.5 Average 31.7 17.0 24.1 -13.9 - - - - Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 1917-12-01 45 39 42.0 0.0 23 0 0.73 0.0 1917-12-02 44 26 35.0 -6.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-03 41 19 30.0 -11.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-04 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-05 43 29 36.0 -4.9 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-06 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-07 M 21 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-08 43 17 30.0 -10.0 35 0 0.78 4.5 1917-12-09 43 14 28.5 -11.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-10 16 7 11.5 -28.0 53 0 0.02 0.2 1917-12-11 22 9 15.5 -23.7 49 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-12 20 15 17.5 -21.4 47 0 0.03 0.3 1917-12-13 32 14 23.0 -15.6 42 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-14 30 22 26.0 -12.4 39 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-15 M 11 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-16 19 8 13.5 -24.4 51 0 T T 1917-12-17 30 15 22.5 -15.1 42 0 0.05 0.5 1917-12-18 33 20 26.5 -10.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-19 34 25 29.5 -7.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-20 39 32 35.5 -1.4 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-21 43 26 34.5 -2.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-22 39 20 29.5 -6.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-23 32 12 22.0 -14.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-24 41 25 33.0 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-25 M 28 M M M M 0.11 T 1917-12-26 M 18 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-27 M 10 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-28 31 10 20.5 -14.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-29 M -2 M M M M 0.20 2.0 1917-12-30 4 -13 -4.5 -39.2 69 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-31 4 -9 -2.5 -37.0 67 0 0.00 0.0 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 2015Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1755 1331 - - 465 0 4.40 0.3 - Average 56.6 42.9 49.8 11.8 - - - - 0.0 Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 2015-12-01 52 42 47.0 5.0 18 0 0.36 0.0 0 2015-12-02 56 45 50.5 8.8 14 0 0.16 0.0 0 2015-12-03 55 44 49.5 8.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-04 53 39 46.0 4.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-05 54 35 44.5 3.6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-06 55 33 44.0 3.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-07 58 34 46.0 5.7 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-08 49 38 43.5 3.5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-09 53 33 43.0 3.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-10 62 48 55.0 15.5 10 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-11 60 46 53.0 13.8 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-12 65 48 56.5 17.6 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-13 68 54 61.0 22.4 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-14 67 52 59.5 21.1 5 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-15 68 52 60.0 21.9 5 0 0.05 0.0 0 2015-12-16 53 43 48.0 10.1 17 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-17 59 50 54.5 16.9 10 0 1.02 0.0 0 2015-12-18 56 37 46.5 9.1 18 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-19 41 34 37.5 0.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-20 45 33 39.0 2.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-21 54 34 44.0 7.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-22 61 52 56.5 20.1 8 0 0.06 0.0 0 2015-12-23 66 50 58.0 21.8 7 0 1.44 0.0 0 2015-12-24 71 59 65.0 29.1 0 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 58.5 22.8 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-26 60 48 54.0 18.5 11 0 0.02 0.0 0 2015-12-27 62 46 54.0 18.7 11 0 0.08 0.0 0 2015-12-28 46 34 40.0 4.9 25 0 0.05 0.1 0 2015-12-29 45 34 39.5 4.6 25 0 0.60 0.2 0 2015-12-30 49 38 43.5 8.8 21 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-31 49 42 45.5 11.0 19 0 0.02 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago wow Dec 2015 didn't go below freezing once lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have been getting the windshield wiper effect from run to run. Some runs a little over and other runs a little under. So with the warm up coming the next several days, my guess for December 17 to 31 will be near 0 to +1. what is it if you remove the 17 -19th and calculate from the 20th to the 31st ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Where's the sun? Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile Yup. Happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up we won't know until Sunday the earliest of what will happen but if something shows up than i hope it happens for Christmas day! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............ To your point, unless one lives near Upton and are experiencing this, isn't this more about the fact that different parts of Upton's area, and even just LI itself, can have wildly different degrees of cloud cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 hours ago, the_other_guy said: That would be a mega flip. Out west is dying this year with low snow and AN. Have we ever seen a winter with such a large flip like that for the whole country? It would be extraordinary One of the more impressive December shifts from colder to warmer across the CONUS since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Avalanches of snow sliding off the solar panels. Its wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago melting pretty good here with some sun and temps at 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Temp is up to 46 here -- the mildest day in quite awhile. But the last couple days really felt like deep winter with 6 inches of snow on the ground and frigid temps. It was a real treat for winter lovers to have that situation in mid December. Now though the snow is melting quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it upLets go nuts and have Boxing Day II 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Temp is up to 46 here -- the mildest day in quite awhile. But the last couple days really felt like deep winter with 6 inches of snow on the ground and frigid temps. It was a real treat for winter lovers to have that situation in mid December. Now though the snow is melting quickly. most will be gone by the time we see the first drops of rain-tomorrow looks sunny and 50-55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: most will be gone by the time we see the first drops of rain-tomorrow looks sunny and 50-55 And then Fri’s rain will come with strong winds so by the end we’ll just have the dirty mall piles. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago that -NAO has grown rather significant to end to the month... can see a redeveloper around the 28th or so with lower heights being forced over the NE. hopefully we can trend it stronger and farther west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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