December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[SACRUS]

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 66 (2000)
NYC: 62 (2000)
LGA: 62 (2021)
JFK: 61 (2021)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (1951)
NYC: 1 (1919)
LGA: 9 (1951)
JFK: 16 (1973)

Historical:

1796: The drought is excessive. From the middle of October to the middle of December, not rain enough to lay the dust. A few days ago there fell a small rain, but the succeeding cold has probably prevented it from sprouting the grain sown during the drought. (Monticello - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison- Jefferson's Garden Book by Edwin Morris Betts page 252)
 

 

1884 - A three week blockade of snow began at Portland, OR. A record December total of 34 inches was received. (David Ludlum)

 

1903: Wilbur and Orville Wright made four brief flights at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina with their first powered aircraft on this day. After having success with their 5-foot biplane kite, the brothers realized the weather conditions in Dayton were not ideal for their flying experiments. They wrote the Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. requesting a list of suitable places on the east coast where winds were constant. Below is the response the Wright Brothers received from Joseph Dosher, who staffed the Weather Bureau office, wrote in August of 1900 regarding the suitability of Kitty Hawk.

1924 - A severe icestorm struck central Illinois. It coated the ground with nearly two inches of glaze at Springfield. The storm caused 21 million dollars damage along with much hardship. Ice was on the trees until the 4th of January, and electricity was not restored until January 10th. (David Ludlum)

 

1924:  From the Monthly Weather Review, "a severe glaze storm occurred in west-central Illinois on December 17 and 18, the area of great destruction embracing a territory about 75 miles in width and 170 miles in length. In the affected area, trees were badly damaged, wires broken, and thousands of electric poles went down. Electric services were paralyzed, and it required weeks to restore operation and months to permanently rebuild the lines.  The street railway company and the Illinois Traction System resumed complete operation 17 days after the storm. Electric light service was completely restored January 10. The ice had practically disappeared from the trees and wires by January 4, but on January 20, there was still considerable ice on the ground.  The Western Union Telegraph Co. lost 8,000 poles and the Illinois Bell Telephone Co. about 23,000. The total damage to wire service in Illinois probably equaled or exceeded $5,000,000." If the loss of business, the damage to trees and possible injury to winter grains, the storm may be considered one of the most disastrous of its kind in the history of Illinois."

1929 - An icestorm in western New York State resulted in much damage and hardship. A Buffalo report stated, "one was kept awake by the breaking limbs, which snapped off with a report much louder than a rifle shot." (17th-18th) (The Weather Channel)

1930: Greensboro, NC experienced its greatest 24-hour snowfall when 14.3 inches fell. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1932: The 10TH GREATEST Washington, DC snow. The snow began early on the 17th and fell at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour until afternoon with a 12 inch accumulation. It was a rather cold storm with temperatures hovering around 18 degrees F during the height of the snow. Temperatures rapidly warmed after the storm and the snow was gone by Christmas. (p. 58-59 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)


1973: 10.2 inches of snow in Washington, DC on 16th and 17th (Washington Weather Records KDCA)

1963: Lake effect snow buried Muskegon, MI with a three day total of 34 inches of snow from the 16th to the 18th. This will be the snowiest December in Muskegon history with a grand total of 82.6 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1964: 20 inches of snow fell at Walla Walla, WA set a state record for December. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1967: A four-day snow and ice storm, described as the worst major ice storm in Oklahoma in more than a decade, ended during the morning hours. The storm affected all but the southeast part of the state, with ice accumulations of a half to 1 inch. Local ice accumulations of 4 inches were reported at Cordell. More than 225 people were treated for injuries, after slipping on the ice. At least 170 of these injuries were in the Oklahoma City area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1973: A snowstorm along the Mid-Atlantic gave Washington, DC 10.2 inches of pre-Christmas snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: Billings, MT had a high temperature was -8 °F; this was the first of 8 consecutive days with a high temp below zero, a December record. One of the most severe Arctic outbreaks to affect the Great Plains gripped Oklahoma for more than two weeks in late December. The prolonged cold wave, lasting from the 17th through the 31st, lowered Oklahoma City's average temperature for the month to a cold 25.8 °F, their coldest on record. Locations that reported record low temperatures for the date included: International Falls, MT: -35 °F, Great Falls, MN: -27 °F: Tied, St. Cloud, MN: -24 °F, Valentine, NE: -23 °F, Duluth, MN: -21 °F: Tied, La Crosse, WI: -18 °F, Minneapolis, MN: -17 °F, Marquette, MI: -9 °F, Omaha, NE: -9 °F: Tied and Clayton, NM: 2 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy rain and heavy snow to parts of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Charleston NV was blanketed with 12 inches of snow. Lake Havasu City AZ was drenched with 2.26 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls brought locally heavy snow to the southeastern shores of Lake Michigan. Totals in Michigan ranged up to 14 inches at Harvey. Totals in Ohio ranged up to 16 inches at Chardon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-one cities from Kentucky to Pennsylvania reported record low temperatures for the date, including Columbus OH with a reading of 12 degrees below zero. Heavy snow continued in the Colorado Rockies. Vail received 65 inches of snow between the 14th and the 18th of December. Steamboat Springs was buried under 74 inches, and reported a total of 108 inches of snow between the 10th and the 18th of the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - Thunderstorms preceding a strong cold front pushed into the U.S. Mississippi Valley, producing severe weather and tornadoes. Three people were killed in Missouri and Arkansas with more than 40 injuries (Associated Press).

2008 - A winter storm dumped as much as 3.6 inches of snow across Las Vegas, Nevada, prompting the closure of schools and highways. This was the largest December snowfall on record and the heaviest snowfall since January 1979 when a total of 7.5 inches fell (Associated Press).

[[email protected]]

41 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

29 / 21 warm the next 3 days Wed - Fri with perhaps some of the warmest areas touching or close to 60 on Friday, otherwise mid/upper 50s.  Overnight Thu into Fri upto an inch of rain.   Colder Saturday - warmer Sunday- then back down Mon - tue before warming Chirstmas eve.  Overall looking warmer between Christmas and the 30th with strong nationwide ridge perhaps a day in there that approach 60 / record high?.  Colder air just to the north and the warmest is to the south west.   Still would watch the period 12/30-31. 

 

Wash, rinse, repeat! Same holidays pattern as always!

[NEG NAO]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

29 / 21 warm the next 3 days Wed - Fri with perhaps some of the warmest areas touching or close to 60 on Friday, otherwise mid/upper 50s.  Overnight Thu into Fri upto an inch of rain.   Colder Saturday - warmer Sunday- then back down Mon - tue before warming Chirstmas eve.  Overall looking warmer between Christmas and the 30th with strong nationwide ridge perhaps a day in there that approach 60 / record high?.  Colder air just to the north and the warmest is to the south west.   Still would watch the period 12/30-31. 

 

With the NAO negative - the WPO Negative and MJO hanging around somewhere in Phase 8 - how do you get anywhere close to 60 ?

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Can we please make this a thing. Thanks. 

dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land.

Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land.

Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast

nothing like posting some evidence to back up your guess...........

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land.

Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast

Based off what ? 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All we can say is that the first 16 days of December have been one of our coldest 16 day periods relative to the means of the 2020s so far. The clipper was a nice contribution to this period feeling very wintry around the area.

This was actually the coldest first half of December  in 20 years. The new Newark records for December now go back to 1850.  So this was ranked 26th coldest which is very respectable in our warmer 2020s climate. 

The current 7 station departure across the area is -7.7. With the moderation coming up next few weeks, the final number this month may finish in the  -3 to -4 range. Models have been fluctuating from run to so we won’t know the exact number for a weeks.
 

EWR…..-8.1

NYC……-8.7

LGA……-8.7

JFK…….-7.8

HPN……-7.6

BDR…...-7.9

ISP……..-5.4

AVG…….-7.7

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coldest  12-01 to 12-16 periods 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1867-12-16	24.1	5
2	1904-12-16	24.6	0
3	1910-12-16	25.5	0
4	1917-12-16	25.7	4
5	1876-12-16	27.0	5
6	1868-12-16	27.3	3
7	1958-12-16	27.9	0
-	1871-12-16	27.9	1
8	1902-12-16	28.6	0
9	1989-12-16	28.8	0
-	1869-12-16	28.8	4
10	1860-12-16	28.9	2
11	1880-12-16	29.0	3
12	1895-12-16	29.1	2
13	1859-12-16	29.4	4
14	1886-12-16	29.5	4
15	1882-12-16	29.7	2
16	1915-12-16	29.8	1
17	1903-12-16	30.0	0
-	1872-12-16	30.0	2
18	2005-12-16	30.4	0
19	1976-12-16	30.6	0
20	1854-12-16	30.8	3
21	1898-12-16	31.0	0
22	1937-12-16	31.1	0
23	1942-12-16	31.2	0
24	1875-12-16	31.4	0
25	1851-12-16	31.7	4
26	2025-12-16	31.8	0
-	1945-12-16	31.8	0

Backed off your -2 to -3 finish from last week I see.  We’ll probably finish around -5 when the month is done, as bulk of the warmth stays to our S&W.

[EasternLI]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

dude, it’s gonna be in the mid 30s, 40s or 50s for the rest of the month. some of you guys are living in fantasy land.

Id love it to happen, but the rest of December looks like toast

Damn who screwed up your breakfast order... happy holidays to you too  I'll take the under on 50's after Friday. Seeing a lot of lows in the 20's though. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is interesting for christmas eve and especially Christmas day!

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS is interesting for christmas eve and especially Christmas day!

Euro - within the last few days was also suggesting something similar but that negative NAO and the strength of it and the HP position in southeast Canada along with the warmer air trying to attack it could set up a gradient/overunning event somewhere in the Northeast and or Mid- Atlantic - example it might be in the 50's in Richmond and closer to 32 in NYC - we don't know yet

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Backed off your -2 to -3 finish from last week I see.  We’ll probably finish around -5 when the month is done, as bulk of the warmth stays to our S&W.

Not backing off much at all really. The difference between a -3 to -4 from 2 to -3 in a long range forecast is pretty much statistical noise. The EPS is around a 0 to +1 the rest of the month. So that would yield a 7 station average of around -3 to -4 from the current -7.7. Long Island is running a little warmer and is only -5.5 at ISP through the 16th.
 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

Where's the sun?   Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not backing off much at all really. The difference between a -3 to -4 from 2 to -3 in a long range forecast is pretty much statistical noise. The EPS is around a 0 to +1 the rest of the month. So that would yield a 7 station average of around -3 to -4 from the current -7.7. Long Island is running a little warmer and is only -5.5 at ISP through the 16th.
 

 

 

 

Latest Weekly has cooled off for next week.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest Weekly has cooled off for next week.

We have been getting the windshield wiper effect from run to run. Some runs a little over and other runs a little under. So with the warm up coming the next several days, my guess for December 17 to 31 will be near 0 to +1.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

All we can say is that the first 16 days of December have been one of our coldest 16 day periods relative to the means of the 2020s so far. The clipper was a nice contribution to this period feeling very wintry around the area.

This was actually the coldest first half of December  in 20 years. The new Newark records for December now go back to 1850.  So this was ranked 26th coldest which is very respectable in our warmer 2020s climate. 

The current 7 station departure across the area is -7.7. With the moderation coming up next few weeks, the final number this month may finish in the  -3 to -4 range. Models have been fluctuating from run to so we won’t know the exact number for a weeks.
 

EWR…..-8.1

NYC……-8.7

LGA……-8.7

JFK…….-7.8

HPN……-7.6

BDR…...-7.9

ISP……..-5.4

AVG…….-7.7

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coldest  12-01 to 12-16 periods 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1867-12-16	24.1	5
2	1904-12-16	24.6	0
3	1910-12-16	25.5	0
4	1917-12-16	25.7	4
5	1876-12-16	27.0	5
6	1868-12-16	27.3	3
7	1958-12-16	27.9	0
-	1871-12-16	27.9	1
8	1902-12-16	28.6	0
9	1989-12-16	28.8	0
-	1869-12-16	28.8	4
10	1860-12-16	28.9	2
11	1880-12-16	29.0	3
12	1895-12-16	29.1	2
13	1859-12-16	29.4	4
14	1886-12-16	29.5	4
15	1882-12-16	29.7	2
16	1915-12-16	29.8	1
17	1903-12-16	30.0	0
-	1872-12-16	30.0	2
18	2005-12-16	30.4	0
19	1976-12-16	30.6	0
20	1854-12-16	30.8	3
21	1898-12-16	31.0	0
22	1937-12-16	31.1	0
23	1942-12-16	31.2	0
24	1875-12-16	31.4	0
25	1851-12-16	31.7	4
26	2025-12-16	31.8	0
-	1945-12-16	31.8	0

Dang, only 3 of the top 25 are in my lifetime.  We missed the best Decembers.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Where's the sun?   Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile

Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Dang, only 3 of the top 25 are in my lifetime.  We missed the best Decembers.

December 1917 was the inverse of December 2015.

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 1917
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	728	526	-	-	933	0	3.52	23.5
Average	31.7	17.0	24.1	-13.9	-	-	-	-
Normal	44.8	31.2	38.0	-	837	0	4.14	5.4
1917-12-01	45	39	42.0	0.0	23	0	0.73	0.0
1917-12-02	44	26	35.0	-6.7	30	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-03	41	19	30.0	-11.4	35	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-04	M	29	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0
1917-12-05	43	29	36.0	-4.9	29	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-06	M	29	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0
1917-12-07	M	21	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0
1917-12-08	43	17	30.0	-10.0	35	0	0.78	4.5
1917-12-09	43	14	28.5	-11.2	36	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-10	16	7	11.5	-28.0	53	0	0.02	0.2
1917-12-11	22	9	15.5	-23.7	49	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-12	20	15	17.5	-21.4	47	0	0.03	0.3
1917-12-13	32	14	23.0	-15.6	42	0	0.80	8.0
1917-12-14	30	22	26.0	-12.4	39	0	0.80	8.0
1917-12-15	M	11	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0
1917-12-16	19	8	13.5	-24.4	51	0	T	T
1917-12-17	30	15	22.5	-15.1	42	0	0.05	0.5
1917-12-18	33	20	26.5	-10.9	38	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-19	34	25	29.5	-7.6	35	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-20	39	32	35.5	-1.4	29	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-21	43	26	34.5	-2.1	30	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-22	39	20	29.5	-6.9	35	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-23	32	12	22.0	-14.2	43	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-24	41	25	33.0	-2.9	32	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-25	M	28	M	M	M	M	0.11	T
1917-12-26	M	18	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0
1917-12-27	M	10	M	M	M	M	0.00	0.0
1917-12-28	31	10	20.5	-14.6	44	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-29	M	-2	M	M	M	M	0.20	2.0
1917-12-30	4	-13	-4.5	-39.2	69	0	0.00	0.0
1917-12-31	4	-9	-2.5	-37.0	67	0	0.00	0.0

 

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1755	1331	-	-	465	0	4.40	0.3	-
Average	56.6	42.9	49.8	11.8	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	44.8	31.2	38.0	-	837	0	4.14	5.4
2015-12-01	52	42	47.0	5.0	18	0	0.36	0.0	0
2015-12-02	56	45	50.5	8.8	14	0	0.16	0.0	0
2015-12-03	55	44	49.5	8.1	15	0	T	0.0	0
2015-12-04	53	39	46.0	4.8	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-05	54	35	44.5	3.6	20	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-06	55	33	44.0	3.4	21	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-07	58	34	46.0	5.7	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-08	49	38	43.5	3.5	21	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-09	53	33	43.0	3.3	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-10	62	48	55.0	15.5	10	0	T	0.0	0
2015-12-11	60	46	53.0	13.8	12	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-12	65	48	56.5	17.6	8	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-13	68	54	61.0	22.4	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-14	67	52	59.5	21.1	5	0	0.24	0.0	0
2015-12-15	68	52	60.0	21.9	5	0	0.05	0.0	0
2015-12-16	53	43	48.0	10.1	17	0	T	0.0	0
2015-12-17	59	50	54.5	16.9	10	0	1.02	0.0	0
2015-12-18	56	37	46.5	9.1	18	0	T	0.0	0
2015-12-19	41	34	37.5	0.4	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-20	45	33	39.0	2.1	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-21	54	34	44.0	7.4	21	0	0.00	0.0	0
2015-12-22	61	52	56.5	20.1	8	0	0.06	0.0	0
2015-12-23	66	50	58.0	21.8	7	0	1.44	0.0	0
2015-12-24	71	59	65.0	29.1	0	0	0.03	0.0	0
2015-12-25	63	54	58.5	22.8	6	0	0.03	0.0	0
2015-12-26	60	48	54.0	18.5	11	0	0.02	0.0	0
2015-12-27	62	46	54.0	18.7	11	0	0.08	0.0	0
2015-12-28	46	34	40.0	4.9	25	0	0.05	0.1	0
2015-12-29	45	34	39.5	4.6	25	0	0.60	0.2	0
2015-12-30	49	38	43.5	8.8	21	0	0.24	0.0	0
2015-12-31	49	42	45.5	11.0	19	0	0.02	0.0	0

[Brian5671]

wow Dec 2015 didn't go below freezing once lol

[NEG NAO]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been getting the windshield wiper effect from run to run. Some runs a little over and other runs a little under. So with the warm up coming the next several days, my guess for December 17 to 31 will be near 0 to +1.

what is it if you remove the 17 -19th and calculate from the 20th to the 31st ?

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Where's the sun?   Upton has mostly sunny it's completely overcast and looks socked in for awhile

Yup. Happens all the time 

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up

we won't know until Sunday the earliest of what will happen but if something shows up than i hope it happens for Christmas day!