December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Big troll 

It does look very mild

[Yanksfan]

Starting to get that bad vibe that we’re going snowless for December. What a waste of cold.

[snowman19]

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Our yards might be muddy, but rivers and streams are at or near record low flowrates for the date.

The yards being muddy is a good sign. That usually means the drought is coming to an end soon.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

Quiet possible it misses but not sure

AI models still show a nice hit

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Quiet possible it misses but not sure

AI models still show a nice hit

Euro is back to a little snow event 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

With how hostile the Pacific has been, even a T to 2 would be a big win to avoid a shutout.

[North and West]

Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard

Is that real? The apps just keep pushing cold and dry. TIA.


.

[North and West]

Will it know about the damaging effects of the sun angle on snow accumulations?

I would worry about sun angle this weekend.



.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With how hostile the Pacific has been, even a T to 2 would be a big win to avoid a shutout.

Definitely 

This is why the models are having a tough time. Flow is too fast .

Hopefully the milder pattern isnt long and we go into an amplified pattern.

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

This is why the models are having a tough time. Flow is too fast .

Hopefully the milder pattern isnt long and we go into an amplified pattern.

 

We haven’t had a December shoutout since 1895 when the first 15 days of the month were as cold as this year is going to be. Would be a new record for wasted December cold in the modern era. But nothing really surprises me anymore due to how extreme the Pacific Jet has become since 2018-2019.

[NYER72]

hard to believe how cold its been and, yet we get rain later today here

[brooklynwx99]

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With how hostile the Pacific has been, even a T to 2 would be a big win to avoid a shutout.

I have to think there’s something here with how cold it’s been. It’ll probably be the minor 1-2” clipper but something to cover the ground at least which we got last Dec. But like you said who knows. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Starting to get that bad vibe that we’re going snowless for December. What a waste of cold.

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

Unless we get the 4” in Central Park the stats for La Niña show mark the difference between the good and bad Nina outcomes, have to think this one would follow that trend. Central Park had 3.1” last Dec I believe and still ended way below average for snow. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It does look very mild

Yep the annual Xmas week torch.  You can set a clock to it.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is back to a little snow event 

Unless all the other models start caving, I don’t trust the EURO/EPS anymore. It’s been way too overamped and flip flops wildly. It was really awful just 2 weeks ago with the 12/2 storm where it kept showing a substantial snow for I-95 run after run and then caved to the other guidance. It’s definitely not what it used to be and hasn’t been for a few years now. 

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, NYER72 said:

hard to believe how cold its been and, yet we get rain later today here

Happened a LOT in the 80s.

The worst was 1989. Coldest month in my lifetime and the one big storm was mainly rain.

Back then cold dry/warm wet was EXPECTED.

[Yanksfan]

This snow hole issue we’ve been having over our area the past few years is nothing short of incredulous. Snow to the north of us. Snow to the south of us. Snow to the west of us. The combination between the -PNA and the raging northern jet is just killing us. By no means am I throwing in the towel for winter 2026, but I’m already looking forward to winter 2027 with an El Niño and +PNA.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unless all the other models start caving, I don’t trust the EURO/EPS anymore. It’s been way too overamped and flip flops wildly. It was really awful just 2 weeks ago with the 12/2 storm where it kept showing a substantial snow for I-95 run after run and then caved to the other guidance. It’s definitely not what it used to be and hasn’t been for a few years now. 

 

Euro was ruined with the latest update a few years ago. The model use to nail storms days out.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think there’s something here with how cold it’s been. It’ll probably be the minor 1-2” clipper but something to cover the ground at least which we got last Dec. But like you said who knows. 

We just have to be grateful for any snow we can get when the Pacific Jet is this extreme.

 

[brooklynwx99]

lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen

[Franklin0529]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen

Doesn't the GFS even show snow south of the city?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Doesn't the GFS even show snow south of the city?

Yes

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Unless we get the 4” in Central Park the stats for La Niña show mark the difference between the good and bad Nina outcomes, have to think this one would follow that trend. Central Park had 3.1” last Dec I believe and still ended way below average for snow. 

Snow and Nina correlations are abysmal and you're not bound by prior analogs for it.

[snowman19]

This may explain why the 6z EURO flip flops:

[wthrmn654]

With the bad winters happening consistently lately, I can't remember how many years exactly so far now many other years has a similar outcome occurred based on record keeping stats? If rarely much at all,  the big question that comes to mind is, will this be the new kind of winter we will be seeing from now on,  with a warmer world?? Seems to me that part history versus what happens storms wise has been falling short.  One example would be the forecasts for record breaking hurricane seasons the past 2 years falling a little short, with a couple monster storms... 

 

Or were simply stuck in a dam loop and can't seem to break it?

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep the annual Xmas week torch.  You can set a clock to it.

Its funny cuz its true.

[CentralNJSnowman]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This may explain why the 6z EURO flip flops:
 

Been meaning to mention this for a while.  I think a lot of people (including some professionals) are misinterpreting the implications of the 12z and 0z being more accurate due to ingesting more fresh data.

This means that right after the 0z comes out it's going to generally have better verification scores than the 6z does right after it comes out.

It does not mean that after the 6z comes out, the 6 hour old 0z is going to still be more accurate than the brand new 6z.  The 6z has access to whatever fresh data it ingested PLUS whatever was available at 0z for the data points where it hasn't ingested anything new.  So it should still be better than a now-stale 0z.

To summarize: maybe take 6z runs with a grain of salt, but still put more stock in them than in older runs