December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Big troll 

It does look very mild

[Yanksfan]

Starting to get that bad vibe that we’re going snowless for December. What a waste of cold.

[snowman19]

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Our yards might be muddy, but rivers and streams are at or near record low flowrates for the date.

The yards being muddy is a good sign. That usually means the drought is coming to an end soon.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

Quiet possible it misses but not sure

AI models still show a nice hit

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Quiet possible it misses but not sure

AI models still show a nice hit

Euro is back to a little snow event 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sunday is quickly trending to a disjointed, sheared mess on the operationals and the ensembles. Raging fast flow, the +PNA is very progressive (as usual) and there is no traffic/blocking in the Atlantic to slow the flow down, it just races right off the coast as FROPA

With how hostile the Pacific has been, even a T to 2 would be a big win to avoid a shutout.

[North and West]

Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard

Is that real? The apps just keep pushing cold and dry. TIA.


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[North and West]

Will it know about the damaging effects of the sun angle on snow accumulations?

I would worry about sun angle this weekend.



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[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With how hostile the Pacific has been, even a T to 2 would be a big win to avoid a shutout.

Definitely 

This is why the models are having a tough time. Flow is too fast .

Hopefully the milder pattern isnt long and we go into an amplified pattern.

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

This is why the models are having a tough time. Flow is too fast .

Hopefully the milder pattern isnt long and we go into an amplified pattern.

 

We haven’t had a December shoutout since 1895 when the first 15 days of the month were as cold as this year is going to be. Would be a new record for wasted December cold in the modern era. But nothing really surprises me anymore due to how extreme the Pacific Jet has become since 2018-2019.

[NYER72]

hard to believe how cold its been and, yet we get rain later today here

[brooklynwx99]

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With how hostile the Pacific has been, even a T to 2 would be a big win to avoid a shutout.

I have to think there’s something here with how cold it’s been. It’ll probably be the minor 1-2” clipper but something to cover the ground at least which we got last Dec. But like you said who knows. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Starting to get that bad vibe that we’re going snowless for December. What a waste of cold.

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, we can't leave December without at least an inch or two of snow. Cold and snowless Decembers are the absolute worst. 2022-23 is a very good example. I can't remember a time when a cold and low snow December produced a great rest of the winter season.

Unless we get the 4” in Central Park the stats for La Niña show mark the difference between the good and bad Nina outcomes, have to think this one would follow that trend. Central Park had 3.1” last Dec I believe and still ended way below average for snow. 

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It does look very mild

Yep the annual Xmas week torch.  You can set a clock to it.