December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Belleayre today. Best start to season in years! Weve got cold, we are in the game!

Looks like mid-winter!

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like mid-winter!

Belleayre should be considered to be Upstate NY not NYC Metro - I know we have had this discussion before - most of NYC metro doesn't look like mid-winter with most of us not seeing a flake yet........

[IrishRob17]

Another day of flurries, maybe a heavier squall in a bit, 38/26. 

[psv88]

So no snow threats now. Sweet

[eduggs]

I remember many winters back through the 90s where there was bare ground through Xmas/New Years even up into the North Country and Vermont... sometimes even in the heart of winter, especially outside the mountains. So far this year it's deep winter throughout the interior. That could be a harbinger of things to come. There's been a bit of a screw zone relative to climo over the past few years from EPA through NENJ and SENY while places north, east, and south have cashed in occasionally. That experience can create a negative bias with respect to future outcomes. But eventually our luck will change despite the warming global climate.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

in albs for the next month. can confirm deep winter vibes up here

I read Albany airport is over 14" already this season and they average 3.9" to date. That's a heck of a start! The valley can be a bit of a snow hole with substantially more snow to the east and west. There are indications it might continue for a while. Enjoy it up there.

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I remember many winters back through the 90s where there was bare ground through Xmas/New Years even up into the North Country and Vermont... sometimes even in the heart of winter, especially outside the mountains. So far this year it's deep winter throughout the interior. That could be a harbinger of things to come. There's been a bit of a screw zone relative to climo over the past few years from EPA through NENJ and SENY while places north, east, and south have cashed in occasionally. That experience can create a negative bias with respect to future outcomes. But eventually our luck will change despite the warming global climate.

Even 2000 it took until the end of the month to finally cash in despite a very cold month and a few mid month warmups with rain

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I read Albany airport is over 14" already this season and they average 3.9" to date. That's a heck of a start! The valley can be a bit of a snow hole with substantially more snow to the east and west. There are indications it might continue for a while. Enjoy it up there.

And perhaps that figure has increased a little more today with the snow squall that blew through.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Belleayre should be considered to be Upstate NY not NYC Metro - I know we have had this discussion before - most of NYC metro doesn't look like mid-winter with most of us not seeing a flake yet........

Geographically Bellayre is souther NY state. It's weird how the population of New York views everything 30 miles north of where they live as upstate. 
 

Binghamton is the southern tier of New York and that area is referred to as such on thruway maps, yet 90% of the residents of NY view it as way the hell upstate. 

[steve392]

Been mostly clear here in Bergen County.  Wind is picking up.  Snow drying up as it approaches. 

[Dark Star]

51 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Geographically Bellayre is souther NY state. It's weird how the population of New York views everything 30 miles north of where they live as upstate. 
 

Binghamton is the southern tier of New York and that area is referred to as such on thruway maps, yet 90% of the residents of NY view it as way the hell upstate. 

But Bellayre is certainly not NYC metro...

[Poker2015]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

I remember many winters back through the 90s where there was bare ground through Xmas/New Years even up into the North Country and Vermont... sometimes even in the heart of winter, especially outside the mountains. So far this year it's deep winter throughout the interior. That could be a harbinger of things to come. There's been a bit of a screw zone relative to climo over the past few years from EPA through NENJ and SENY while places north, east, and south have cashed in occasionally. That experience can create a negative bias with respect to future outcomes. But eventually our luck will change despite the warming global climate.

I have alot of family in NH on the border of VT and MA and I can confirm most winters before January were pretty bare. We would go up the week between Christmas and New Years every year and I can only remember sledding a handful of times in the 90's. 

[vegan_edible]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

I read Albany airport is over 14" already this season and they average 3.9" to date. That's a heck of a start! The valley can be a bit of a snow hole with substantially more snow to the east and west. There are indications it might continue for a while. Enjoy it up there.

we've had a handful of whiteout squalls this afternoon. got on 87 earlier and about 10 mins in couldnt see 15 feet in front of me

[eduggs]

The RGEM has a little snow early Saturday. It's not much and it will probably shift east or be flurries if it's even real, but it's something...

[jm1220]

56 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM has a little snow early Saturday. It's not much and it will probably shift east or be flurries if it's even real, but it's something...

Have to move down to Richmond where there's real snow these days. 

And for the Sun night system, we need that to dig much further south for the NYC area to have a chance. The GFS has precip falling Sun night with 850 temps below zero, but we're screwed again with southerly winds leading up to the storm so 99% chance it would be rain near the coast like this past suckfest. So 3-5" snow for Richmond tonight overnight then 3-5" snow for I-84 to I-90 Sun into Mon. Just doesn't get any more awesome than this. 

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Belleayre should be considered to be Upstate NY not NYC Metro - I know we have had this discussion before - most of NYC metro doesn't look like mid-winter with most of us not seeing a flake yet........

Of course it is upstate NY.

 

Just sharing a photo…as I often do when conditions warrant 

[MJO812]

This month looks cold. Now we need the stj to wake up.

[eduggs]

55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Have to move down to Richmond where there's real snow these days. 

And for the Sun night system, we need that to dig much further south for the NYC area to have a chance. The GFS has precip falling Sun night with 850 temps below zero, but we're screwed again with southerly winds leading up to the storm so 99% chance it would be rain near the coast like this past suckfest. So 3-5" snow for Richmond tonight overnight then 3-5" snow for I-84 to I-90 Sun into Mon. Just doesn't get any more awesome than this. 

The RGEM snow accumulation map I showed in now through Saturday. I should have showed the time stamp and duration. There's a weak mid-level shortwave interacting with the offshore SLP. It could generate snow showers on Saturday.

I agree that the Friday and Sunday events are frustration.

[eduggs]

The GFS is an outlier with respect to Sun-Mon. There is very little overlap between the EPS/GEPS and the GEFS right now. But... the GFS has trended "better" for a few runs now.

Negatives are north SLP track and southerly winds, positives are decent antecedent airmass and potent shortwave.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Of course it is upstate NY.

 

Just sharing a photo…as I often do when conditions warrant 

The season is already getting to some, hate to see it. 

[donsutherland1]

The coldest air mass so far this season is now overspreading the region. The temperature will tumble into the lower 20s by tomorrow morning in New York City. Many areas outside the City will see lows in the teens.

Daily record low marks for December 5th could be challenged or broken in Bridgeport, New York City-JFK Airport, New York City-LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains.

The weekend will be cool but dry. A fresh surge of cold air could arrive Sunday night.

The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000).

The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were:

1. 30.6°, 2002
2. 32.2°, 2003
3. 32.4°, 2000
4. 33.1°, 2005
5. 33.4°, 2007

All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -43.70 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since February 9, 2024 when the SOI was -46.54. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.366 today. 

 

[North and West]

The season is already getting to some, hate to see it. 

You have to throw out this year and come back next Thanksgiving.


.

[SACRUS]

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

You have to throw out this year and come back next Thanksgiving.


.

Seasons ovah. 26/11, gonna be a cold one with that bright moon bouncing off the snow. Gonna lock up my first teens of the season, looking like before midnight.