November Banter 2025

[mappy]

3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

DCPS will take every conceivable holiday - but when it snows, they are like - get your asses to school lol.

lol at least it actually snows down there 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, Interstate said:

No No No... I am only 10 minutes from Fallston, but I am in Baltimore County   So good news for me... bad news for @Stormchaserchuck1

Welcome neighbor! We do much better for snow here, every mile makes a big difference.  You're also kind of in a nice thunderstorm spot. Baltimore to just south of me is a zone that gets hit whenever we are risk. Edit: nevermind, you already live here. Whatever. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure if it is far enough away from Parkton, @mappy but I will officially be living in Fallston as of Dec. 1. Bad news for @Interstate as I bring my snow shield to Harford County...

 

Welcome! When we get coastals, Fallston does really well. I think we had close to 36" in Jan 2016. I also measured 125" in my backyard in the Winter of 02-03. 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Big win by the Caps in Carolina

they need to keep it up.  the wiz are trash right now.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Vikings stink with basically a rookie at QB...Packers stink with one of the highest paid QBs in the league...stink knows stink

Dolphins are the worst. Why did they sign Tua to $55 mill/yr? I think Lamar is like the 10th highest paid QB now. If you have a lot of money, NFL is something that is really going up in value a lot over the next few decades. 

[North Balti Zen]

12 hours ago, Interstate said:

No No No... I am only 10 minutes from Fallston, but I am in Baltimore County   So good news for me... bad news for @Stormchaserchuck1

I mean, I can almost see the bal co line from the farm…

 

if the forum ever wants to try another get together, late July - early September is beyond gorgeous on the farm with all the flowers fields fully ablaze- some coolers of beer and a grill and it would be a fun place to gather for a bit - and Boordy is just three miles down the road too…

[North Balti Zen]

What one of the fields looked like in August…

[WxUSAF]

Non-political post here…I have never agreed more with “Trump officials”

 

[NorthArlington101]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Non-political post here…I have never agreed more with “Trump officials”

 

Meh - they are quirky and fun. Not sure what the better option is... IIRC you can already walk or take the mini-subway they have in most cases but it's a longer journey.

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Meh - they are quirky and fun. Not sure what the better option is... IIRC you can already walk or take the mini-subway they have in most cases but it's a longer journey.

Not sure international returns? Think you have to take that absurd contraption back to the cattle call customs line.

[NorthArlington101]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure international returns? Think you have to take that absurd contraption back to the cattle call customs line.

Yeah, I think that's the one scenario where you have no other choice. But I guess my question would still be what the other option is. Underground tunnel just to get back to customs seems a tad $$$$. Maybe PenFed could sponsor it

[Kmlwx]

Something LOUD just flew over Colesville area. ADS-B has something but it's not identified. Probably fighter jet(s) - only getting it periodically on MLAT tracking. 340+ knots if the MLAT is accurate. 

[rollenwiese]

My work gave me the ultimatum to move to Charlotte, NC or get lost in 30 days. I've been remote for six year since they closed our office here. Looks like I'm moving down there. I'm gonna miss the mid-Atlantic winters. Weather seems hot and boring down there in the Piedmont.

[Jebman]

The Sierra storm tomorrow is shaping up to be quite a rainer all the way up to 9,200 feet. Very warm conditions as La Nina continues. Possibly 3-4 inches of plain rain at resort level will wash away lots of soil and rocks. Only the highest peaks at 11,000 feet will see 1-2 feet of wet snow. Not that this will help the Saturday opening at Mammoth in 2-3 days. Skiers will be mudding it out all the way down the slopes. Palisades will be all torrential rain too, whipped by 90kt winds at the crests. There are indications on the modeling that this movable feast will slow down and dump ridiculous amounts of rain into the weekend. We are going to see many forlorn skiers show up at Mammoth for one of the rainiest openings in history. They might not even make it up there for floods, mudslides and washed out roads.

This is going to be a monumental washout.

The only place there will not be an all-out CARNAGE this winter will be the Great Lakes where downwind LES will bury many alive in meters of windblown snow.

[Jebman]

Modeling is now indicating 5 inches of liquid over the Sierra with the incoming system but there is going to be a ton of warm air as well, most of this is going to be heavy wind whipped rain, except at elevations above 9,200 feet. The highest peaks well above 9,200 feet are expected to eke out a foot of slushy wet slimy potato type snow paste ugh.

We may well be facing a Sunday River, Maine ski resort type of scenario here, with so much rain that entire ski runs get carved out several feet deep in the rocky soil from so damn much rain. The weather system is expected to slow down greatly enabling warm air to persist longer causing heavy rains to last longer piling up rain tallies. Immense amounts of the rain waters will rush down into the valleys causing freezing cold flooding issues for travelers and residents alike.

The Winter Storm Warning for the  Sierras near Mammoth  strongly advise against travel due to mudslides and rockslides because of heavy rain saturating mountainsides with this rain-laden system!

 

EDIT 10.32pm PST, which is 12.32am here in TX, I have noted some very wet flurry activity at Mammoth even at 39 degrees. They can do that at those elevations, but that warm air is gonna work in.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

This is gonnabe one hell of an EPIC Opening Day for Mammoth on Saturday, just gonnabe sodden and thoroughly rain-soaked. Roads will probably be impassable not because of snow but because of rockslides and mudslides.

[Jebman]

Steady RAIN even at 9630 feet. Summit is 11,000 feet with snow, but everything below it looks so much like DCA In January.

McCoy Station at 9,630 feet may have some snow, but everything below that is liquid.

[Jebman]

As of 3.52pm PST - McCoy Station at 9600 feet has had some light snow. You can see it on the ground. But everyone below that is rain and deep mud. Mammoth is no longer opening Saturday. They don't know when, what with this humongous rain-filled storm.

 

Contrast McCoy Station at 9,630 feet https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station

with the Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

and Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Main Lodge and Woolly are at 8900-9000 feet and are a rainy muddy mess with nearby higher elevation snows melting fast.

This huge moisture laden storm is a catastrophe for Opening Day with tons of fresh liquid rainfall.

[wxdude64]

On 11/12/2025 at 5:41 PM, rollenwiese said:

My work gave me the ultimatum to move to Charlotte, NC or get lost in 30 days. I've been remote for six year since they closed our office here. Looks like I'm moving down there. I'm gonna miss the mid-Atlantic winters. Weather seems hot and boring down there in the Piedmont.

Start looking for a house/property E or W of downtown. They ruined 77 north of town (took 3 free lanes to two free, two toll and the free are packed stop/go 24/7, although if you wish to pay to drive I think they average 50 cars a day on the tolled lanes) and about to start the same on 77 south of downtown starting next year (so construction), just a FYI. 

[Jebman]

As of 5.33pm PST, we are now seeing very WET snow falling at both Woolly Cam and at the Main Lodge.

It's 38 degrees, ground is soaked, stickage is extremely unlikely.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam At Woolly you can make out rain impacting the pavement so what this may well be is a snow/rain mix. At any rate temps are far above freezing. What a waste of 5 inches of water. You can see hydrometeor impacts in water puddles on the Main Lodge grounds too. This is probably a moderate to heavy extremely wet snow and plain rain mix, in an upper 30s temperature environment in the presence of extremely wet soaked mud, mud that is well above freezing which shall rule out any stickage whatsoever. It probably won't cave until next week's colder storm.

It's a real severe punch right in the gut, to realize that Mammoth at 9000 feet can get Washington DC'd, too. At least Mc Coy Station at 9,630 feet is seeing some accumulation on the grounds.

Damn.

[Jebman]

Temp down to 36 at Mammoth. Precip is steady moderate to heavy and appears to have gone over to ALL snow. Still no stickage. Still rain at Village level.

Temp now at 35 degrees. Even with no lighting, snow can just be made out falling pretty good up at Mc Coy Station at 9,600 feet. It is likely all snow now at Main Lodge. It is really coming down in the lights there but still no stickage yet, no preconsolidation of any kind as of yet - 7.40pm PST (9.40pm CST in Texas).

 

The surface reflectivity is changing. This is another way of saying that I am seeing it get slushy on the top of the roof of the Main Lodge, and that I no longer can see the puddles of water on the ground either, and the reflectivity there which has been marked with the rainfall as of late ---- is changing quite a bit. This is probably because of the start of slushiness from falling snow, something I refer to as 'preconsolidation' and it is building up.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Edited results of the past two days!

 

Cross posting to banter since I doubt many people are still looking at the aurora thread (till next storm at least). That said, next storm if anyone would want to meetup at Reddish Knob, Sandy Bottom overlook (Shenandoah) or Spruce Knob Dm me when the time comes. 

[Jebman]

Its pouring heavy, super wet snow in Mammoth, but the damn temperature is 36 degrees. It's snow tv only. It's basically Washington DC in the Sierras tonight folks. This storm is a total FAIL !

[snowfan]

The higher peaks in NNE are off to a good start re snowfall. KMWN is already pushing 40” for the month. Pretty good for November. 

[Jebman]

Well whaddaya know? Looks like they managed to pick up an inch of slush on the grass at the Main Lodge and Woolly Cam! Mc Coy Station has got about 5-8 inches of snow, they are at 9600 feet.

Mammoth forecasters are really hyping the overnight snow, calling for 4-8 inches like JB, but ground truth shows only about an inch of slush slop, unless you hit the summit at 11K feet where they might have 8 inches.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

The higher peaks in NNE are off to a good start re snowfall. KMWN is already pushing 40” for the month. Pretty good for November. 

NNE is waaaaaaaaaaay ahead of the Sierra in November. Poor cordillera cant even fall below freezing this year.

[adelphi_sky]

Should I get excited about this winter? A lot of talk about below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Can't wait to start tracking again and eating popcorn watching people argue snowfall maps.   This has been one boring summer/fall. Needs some weather excitement!

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

Should I get excited about this winter? A lot of talk about below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Can't wait to start tracking again and eating popcorn watching people argue snowfall maps.   This has been one boring summer/fall. Needs some weather excitement!

You're gonna get it! This is going to be an exciting snow winter in the East and the Mid Atlantic's gonnabe leading the way!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, adelphi_sky said:

Should I get excited about this winter? A lot of talk about below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Can't wait to start tracking again and eating popcorn watching people argue snowfall maps.   This has been one boring summer/fall. Needs some weather excitement!

In my amateur opinion...I wouldn't get excited about any winter before it happens--especially in this current cycle of underperformance we've been in with this -PDO. Just keep expectations neutral...it is a nina so you know the potential of those is limited even in better conditions anyway.